TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

Instinct tells me the 23N center is less likely to rapidly intensify. That was more likely with a southern center coming up into the straits at an angle. Looks like the Cuba swirl was actually the vortex...

what are you saying?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 240015
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 23/2331Z (73)
C. 23.4N/9
D. 75.1W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/03HRS -23/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC RELOCATED TO THE WEST OF PREV FIX.
CNVCTN WRAPS .30 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT...PT YIELDS A 1.5.

AODT: T1.8 (CRVD BND)

LAURENTI



T numbers from Air Force.

[MortisFL]

Interesting graphic

[LAwxrgal]

TPNT KGWC 240015
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 23/2331Z (73)
C. 23.4N/9
D. 75.1W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/03HRS -23/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC RELOCATED TO THE WEST OF PREV FIX.
CNVCTN WRAPS .30 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT...PT YIELDS A 1.5.

AODT: T1.8 (CRVD BND)

LAURENTI



T numbers from Air Force.

Okay, I'm trying to decipher this in plain English. The low level circulation relocated to the west of the previous fix? What else?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (AL122005) ON 20050824 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050824 0000 050824 1200 050825 0000 050825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.8W 23.9N 77.5W 24.4N 79.1W 24.7N 80.6W
BAMM 23.3N 75.8W 24.0N 77.4W 24.6N 78.8W 24.9N 80.1W
A98E 23.3N 75.8W 23.8N 77.0W 24.7N 78.3W 25.4N 80.0W
LBAR 23.3N 75.8W 24.2N 77.3W 25.4N 78.6W 26.5N 79.6W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050826 0000 050827 0000 050828 0000 050829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.9N 82.1W 24.8N 84.7W 24.4N 87.2W 24.3N 89.7W
BAMM 25.0N 81.3W 25.1N 83.3W 24.7N 84.8W 24.5N 86.5W
A98E 25.7N 82.4W 27.1N 85.9W 27.5N 88.1W 26.2N 89.3W
LBAR 27.3N 80.1W 28.6N 79.4W 30.4N 78.2W 33.7N 75.5W
SHIP 64KTS 77KTS 82KTS 86KTS
DSHP 64KTS 37KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 75.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.5N LONM24 = 73.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Model Guidance.

[hicksta]

Hmmm a drop to the south a little and almost due west??? Expect the LBAR

[clfenwi]

TPNT KGWC 240015
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 23/2331Z (73)
C. 23.4N/9
D. 75.1W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/03HRS -23/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC RELOCATED TO THE WEST OF PREV FIX.
CNVCTN WRAPS .30 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT...PT YIELDS A 1.5.

AODT: T1.8 (CRVD BND)

LAURENTI



T numbers from Air Force.

Okay, I'm trying to decipher this in plain English. The low level circulation relocated to the west of the previous fix? What else?

OK, A-D are self-explanatory.

E. is a confidence number along with the source of the data. Five means 'poorly defined circulation center'. Source was the GOES12 satellite

F. First 2.0 is intensity estimated by the analyst. Second 2.0 is the intensity given by NHC. 2.0 = 35 mph winds. Their intensity estimate is .5 above their previous one.

G. They looked at infrared and enhanced infrared imagery.

As far as the comments go, after the part about relocating the LLC, the rest is technical minutiae related to the Dvorak method. The final number was taken from the data T-number, while the pattern t-number was 1.5 (means nothing to you if you know nothing about the Dvorak method).

AODT is the Automated Objective Dvorak Technique... an experimental automatic estimate of intensity. Its estimate was slightly lower than the one given by humans.

Sources:

table for relating numbers to wind speeds: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

data blocks in the message:
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/05/pdf/g-chap6.pdf

[Eyes2theSkies]

Remember the BAMS are very rarely on above 20 degrees so take them with a grain of salt

[jasons2k]

well well well, so we have a center relocation. why am I not surprised??

[Wnghs2007]

I dont know if the graphic has been posted but here it is...




Look where the GFDL takes it, that is further north and east than last run, but offcourse these models will flip and flop atleast a septillion times. Oh also not to mention look where the GFDL has it starting at. Further south than any of the other models at 22.8 or 9 give or take north.

[Sanibel]

I think they are saying an elongated and ill-defined LLC is relocating slightly closer to the Cuban center. I won't argue. The system is being distorted by very strong upper conditions to the NW and a compact but strong ULL located within the northern part of the system itself.

My total guess is the center will focus to the poleward or northern center. If the center reforms under the near-Cuba portion then we have to think of a Straits crosser which, to me, trends stronger in potential intensity...

[dwg71]

well well well, so we have a center relocation. why am I not surprised??

It located slightly West of last fix, not South, 23.4N 75.1W isnt near Cuba..

[shaggy]

true sanibel that if its a strait runner then intensity would surely be a problem forecast but if its closer to cuba then it should have some land interactions that may slow initial development

[ROCK]

well well well, so we have a center relocation. why am I not surprised??

It located slightly West of last fix, not South, 23.4N 75.1W isnt near Cuba..

closer to Cuba than it was. Hard to dispute that fact..

good call Js....was thinking along the same lines after looking at the vis.

[dwg71]

true sanibel that if its a strait runner then intensity would surely be a problem forecast but if its closer to cuba then it should have some land interactions that may slow initial development

Its in the central bahamas, not near coast of cuba

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[jasons2k]

well well well, so we have a center relocation. why am I not surprised??

It located slightly West of last fix, not South, 23.4N 75.1W isnt near Cuba..

closer to Cuba than it was. Hard to dispute that fact..

good call Js....was thinking along the same lines after looking at the vis.

Well I must admit it's not a far SW as I was eyeing, but I wouldn't be surpised if it happens again, but this may be a good fix finally

[johngaltfla]

Interesting graphic

Too interesting for our location.

[clfenwi]

I dont know if the graphic has been posted but here it is...




Look where the GFDL takes it, that is further north and east than last run, but offcourse these models will flip and flop atleast a septillion times. Oh also not to mention look where the GFDL has it starting at. Further south than any of the other models at 22.8 or 9 give or take north.

Keep in mind that the GFDL posted there was initialized at 18Z. Its initialized position is similar to that of the other 18Z models.

[gkrangers]

The NHC center has remained the center. The one at 75W IS the dominant center, and remains so.

There wasn't much "relocation".

[jasons2k]

Looking at latest, that does look like a good center fix, maybe we can all sing kumbuya for now, at least until AM visible shots come out