First real deepening.....

[WeatherEmperor]

Hi-res imagery (as of 2320Z) shows a pretty good burst starting to go up to the SW the big blob...closer to the center of circulation located by aircraft. If this burst manages to overspread the center in the next few hours...it won't be very long at all before Katrina starts making waves.

Sorry...had to throw that in.

MW

MW where does the latest GFDL have landfall at? precisely?

Just a very very tad bit south of where the NHC says it will. The thing is now once it crosses FL and gets into the Gulf, it turns it north faster then it did before. It now shows it heading towards the FL panhandle.

<RICKY>

[dixiebreeze]

Hi-res imagery (as of 2320Z) shows a pretty good burst starting to go up to the SW the big blob...closer to the center of circulation located by aircraft. If this burst manages to overspread the center in the next few hours...it won't be very long at all before Katrina starts making waves.

Sorry...had to throw that in.

MW

MW where does the latest GFDL have landfall at? precisely?

Just a very very tad bit south of where the NHC says it will. The thing is now once it crosses FL and gets into the Gulf, it turns it north faster then it did before. It now shows it heading towards the FL panhandle.

<RICKY>

I'm inclined to think it may make E. Florida landfall a bit farther N. than indicated now and graze the Fla. W. coast -- where it makes a second landfall is up for grabs.

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Depression Twelve Intermediate Advisory Number 1a


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 23, 2005



...Tropical depression moving slowly over the Bahamas...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central and northwest
Bahamas...including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum
Cay...San Salvador...the northwestern Bahamas...the Abacos...Andros
Island...the Berry Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama
Island...and New Providence.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was
estimated near latitude 23.3 north... longitude 75.8 west or about
160 miles... 255 km... southeast of Nassau.

The depression is moving erratically toward the west-northwest near
7 mph... 11 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr... with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over
portions of the Bahamas...and along the northern coast of Cuba...
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along the
northern coast of Cuba.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...23.3 N... 75.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Knabb

[gkrangers]

Regarding the very long threads.

The current, pertinent info and discussion is in the last 2-3 pages.

Just read the last 2-3 pages.

What is so hard about that?

[jlauderdal]

Regarding the very long threads.

The current, pertinent info and discussion is in the last 2-3 pages.

Just read the last 2-3 pages.

What is so hard about that?

exactly, the best info is the most recent so people can just click on the last page and work backwards if they really care to look. no more additional comment required, lol.

[Jim Cantore]

Why is it classified TD 12 aint this the remnents of TD 10

anyway this looks like a healthy syestem now and I think we'll have Katrina at 11pm

[Brent]

Why is it classified TD 12 aint this the remnents of TD 10

Not entirely... from NHC at 5pm:

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

[johngaltfla]

Hi-res imagery (as of 2320Z) shows a pretty good burst starting to go up to the SW the big blob...closer to the center of circulation located by aircraft. If this burst manages to overspread the center in the next few hours...it won't be very long at all before Katrina starts making waves.

Sorry...had to throw that in.

MW

I just watched the latest loop and wow, does it appear to be starting to wrap around the estimated center or is that my imagination? The activity is really popping and my concern is what alot of people have ignored:

How fast a storm hitting the gulf stream can intensify. We're in warm to hot waters now and as it moves W to WNW it's only going to hit more gas for the engine.

[skysummit]

Yes it does look like it's beginning to wrap around the center. I wonder if this will be one of those times that we all go to bed tonight and when we wake up in the morning we'll be astounded by what occurred. Think so?

[Jim Cantore]

it would be wierd if it rapidly strengthened and sped up then hit miami tommorow seeing its august 24th tommorow hint hint

[jpigott]

not to be an alarmist, but if (and this is a big if) this thing develops a CDO overnight and the ULL gets out of the way, conditions are ripe for intensification.

[seaswing]

last I heard it was only moving 8 mph...lots of time to strengthen if it keeps that slower pace.

[gatorcane]

I just watched the latest loop and wow, does it appear to be starting to wrap around the estimated center or is that my imagination? The activity is really popping and my concern is what alot of people have ignored:

How fast a storm hitting the gulf stream can intensify. We're in warm to hot waters now and as it moves W to WNW it's only going to hit more gas for the engine.

Exactly I have been worried about this blob since late last week...I know there are many that have no idea it's even out there because last night at this time local mets were basically just calling for some increased rain chances and that is it

[Blown Away]

Looking at the WV loop, the center looks like it is at the NW tip of Long Island (Bahamas). Looks like a flare up on the W side of the center. I know pin pointing the center is difficult rate now, but does that location look really close?

[dwg71]

Looking at the WV loop, the center looks like it is at the NW tip of Long Island (Bahamas). Looks like a flare up on the W side of the center. I know pin pointing the center is difficult rate now, but does that location look really close?

Your right on it.

[dixiebreeze]

On top of Central Florida 72 hours out says the TAFB:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl72_latestBW.gif

[HouTXmetro]

Convection is dying out now

[Eyes2theSkies]

I don't think the convection is dying out just reforming towards the LLC

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't think the convection is dying out just reforming towards the LLC

Agreed. Just a natural strengthening process. Systems naturally shed their old convection and start over, so it may seem like the system is weakening. In reality, it is just a part of the strengthening process necessary for systems to increase in intensity.

Convection is now closer to the forming center of circulation...

[gatorcane]

Also systems tend to bomb out more during the late night hours so I expect to see the convection blow up like last night between say 1 or 2 am and sunrise.