Hurricane Katrina

[wxwatcher91]

23/2345 UTC 23.2N 75.1W T2.0/2.0 12

[Decomdoug]

NHC is forecasting it to be a tropical storm by the time it gets here.

Any chance of it strenghtening more or just not enough time?

It's headed right for me so I'm not rootin for it...haha...
(then again...as already stated...it is a pretty wide cone)

Just wonderin....

Anyone remember the scene from Airplane with Lloyd bridges in the tower......? "It's headed right for us!!" as he jumps out the tower window...LOL!

Oh yes, one of my fav's
"Looks like I picked a bad day to give up, smoking, drinkin, sniffin glue...

[cjrciadt]

NHC is forecasting it to be a tropical storm by the time it gets here.

Any chance of it strenghtening more or just not enough time?

It's headed right for me so I'm not rootin for it...haha...
(then again...as already stated...it is a pretty wide cone)

Just wonderin....

Anyone remember the scene from Airplane with Lloyd bridges in the tower......? "It's headed right for us!!" as he jumps out the tower window...LOL!

Oh yes, one of my fav's
"Looks like I picked a bad day to give up, smoking, drinkin, sniffin glue...

I love Airplane, anyway the NHC's upside in intensity says maybe a Cat2 before the panhandle.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204602.shtml?chart

[BamaMan]

Panhandle? Looks like the NHC has it at 120 hrs south of Panama City headed towards la/Ms/Al coastal areas to me

[Jim Cantore]

I think theres about a 45% chance that this is Katrina at 11pm

I try to be realistic

[fci]

I think theres about a 45% chance that this is Katrina at 11pm

I try to be realistic

I think 5:00 AM the earliest

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z WED AUG 24 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.2N 76.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.1N 77.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 76.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AND MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.4 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

Double again.

[Jim Cantore]

I say 85% its Katrina by 5am

99.8 it will be katrina sometime in its life

[Brent]

Is trying to post a reply giving anyone else an absolute fit??? Ugh...

[gatorcane]

do we really need three identical posts with the 11pm advisory?

[Steve]

...If one of them would have been the discussion (hurry up discussion!!!!)

Steve

[Brent]

do we really need three identical posts with the 11pm advisory?

Well two of them were mine... I hit "Submit", it sat here for almost a minute doing nothing, and then I click submit again and of course... it posts twice.

[Ixolib]

Is trying to post a reply giving anyone else an absolute fit??? Ugh...

Yep... Board's running kinda weird (and slow) this evening...

[Swimdude]

Is trying to post a reply giving anyone else an absolute fit??? Ugh...

Yup.

[Brent]

Is trying to post a reply giving anyone else an absolute fit??? Ugh...

Yep... Board's running kinda weird (and slow) this evening...

It works fine in between advisory times... I guess it can't handle everyone clicking refresh waiting for the advisory.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... PRIOR TO DEPARTING THE DEPRESSION
AFTER ABOUT 2230Z... CONTINUED TO REPORT A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
NEAR 1007 MB... AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THIS
MISSION NEVER EXCEEDED THE 39 KT OBSERVED SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE CENTER HAS BEEN NEAR GEORGETOWN ON
GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... WHERE 1007 MB AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED. LACKING ANY DATA TO
SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 30 KT. HOWEVER... RECENTLY A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION... WITH
SOME TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... HAS STRENGTHENED TO THE EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THIS BAND COULD WRAP SUFFICIENTLY AROUND
THE CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GREAT
EXUMA ALSO DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS CURVED BAND OF RAINFALL
BENEATH THESE CONVECTIVE TOPS.

THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING
ERRATICALLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE BAHAMAS... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/6 KT... A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE A RESULT OF
THE DEPRESSION LYING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED EAST TO WEST BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SINCE
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
A SLOW MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
A WESTWARD BEND BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE... EXCEPT FOR THE GFS... GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER FORECASTING
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER FLORIDA BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE SLOW TREND THIS EVENING TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THAT TIME... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC
FOR MANY REASONS... NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS WIDELY DIFFERING
MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING
TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON
HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES
FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY
WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT
STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL
CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND PERHAPS A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST... AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT
PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005.
THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT
EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 23.4N 76.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.2N 76.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.1N 77.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 85.5W 65 KT

[Ixolib]

Is trying to post a reply giving anyone else an absolute fit??? Ugh...

Yep... Board's running kinda weird (and slow) this evening...

It works fine in between advisory times... I guess it can't handle everyone clicking refresh waiting for the advisory.

Good point - I'm guilty of that... In fact, my refresh icon now has a hole rubbed in the middle of it from using it so much this season!!

[cycloneye]