TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[fci]

eastern shift has begun

Rainband:
What does that mean?

[jdray]

Watch the models trend more up the penisula for the next day or two.


They are going to have issues with the ridge axis strength and storm strength interaction.


**before anyone thinks wishcast, Im expecting a nice nor'easter type setup for our weather here while the storm passes to the south some distance away.

[Jim Cantore]

the LBAR has this thing bouncing off the coast like a pinball lol

[Eyes2theSkies]

LBAR always seems to be on crack but I would not be suprised to watch those models move further and further north as the days go on

[clfenwi]

Someone asked earlier about what position the 00Z models would be initalized on.

If I've interpreted their documentation correctly, the two global models that use bogusing (i.e. artifical insertion of the storm into the model), NOGAPS and UKMET, take their initalization from NHC... so they will use 23.3 North, 75. 8 West. I've read (and forgotten) how GFS does their intialziation, but I know it isn't by bogusing. I know for a fact that the European doesn't do bogusing either.

[artist]

FXUS62 KMFL 240222 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1020 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
PUBLIC AND MARINE ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM TO INCLUDE A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WHICH
INCLUDES MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

[mvtrucking]

On further review the feature just west of Long Island is tracking like a surface center and even has a small section of it visible on the south side of the LLC. Its motion and look is exactly like an established LLC tracking WNW. What were they talking about? There was no relocation.


To me it looks to be curving ever so slightly...

As in ? SW?

[EDR1222]

TD 12 seems to be looking a little ill this evening. Looks like it is losing alot of convection. Anyone else seeing this on satellite? Could just be temporary, but just wondered if anyone else had thoughts on this.

[wxman57]

Are my eyes or is really TD 12 not moving?

It'll be difficult to judge movement using IR imagery when you can't see the center well. Ignore the high clouds which are popping up here and there and look for the lower light gray clouds near the surface. It is moving to the NW.

[wxman57]

On further review the feature just west of Long Island is tracking like a surface center and even has a small section of it visible on the south side of the LLC. Its motion and look is exactly like an established LLC tracking WNW. What were they talking about? There was no relocation.


To me it looks to be curving ever so slightly...

As in ? SW?

I can't see any LLC on IR imagery. Just too much cirrus obscuring the low level clouds. It's pointless to try to discern movement at night using IR imagery.

[johngaltfla]

A bigger concern that I heard on local radio tonight was the "it's just a tropical storm" talk.

I think the pros and all alike should remind everyone just how fast a storm can intensify when it hits the gulf stream. And also remember that once it crosses Florida, we'll all be watching to see how quick it re-organizes and which direction it heads.

Hopefully it will curve north and hit land aqain quickly before it re-strengthens. I would hate to see a storm cross the gulf and have two or three days to intensify.

[LaBreeze]

So, does this mean that the general trend will be more to the NW and N, keeping it out of the GOM? Is this what some are seeing? Local met is saying tonight that New Orleans westward is pretty much protected - not to worry. True?

[skysummit]

So, does this mean that the general trend will be more to the NW and N, keeping it out of the GOM? Is this what some are seeing? Local met is saying tonight that New Orleans westward is pretty much protected - not to worry. True?

Of course that's what our mets will say...that's what they are known for. We need to first worry about what will hit Florida before worrying about it getting into the gulf. Those people need to prepare. If it does cross into the gulf, people around here will take notice.....of course our mets will still downplay it though.

[HouTXmetro]

So, does this mean that the general trend will be more to the NW and N, keeping it out of the GOM? Is this what some are seeing? Local met is saying tonight that New Orleans westward is pretty much protected - not to worry. True?

Check the NHC 11pm update, New Orleans and Westward points are more under the gun now. Unlike the 5 pm forecast which showed a NW turn towards the (LA/MS/FL) coast near the end of the 5 day period, the 11pm update has it on a W-WNW heading near the end of the 5 day period. IMO that increases the threat to LA.

[gkrangers]

So, does this mean that the general trend will be more to the NW and N, keeping it out of the GOM? Is this what some are seeing? Local met is saying tonight that New Orleans westward is pretty much protected - not to worry. True?

Check the NHC 11pm update, New Orleans and Westward points are more under the gun now. Unlike the 5 pm forecast which showed a NW turn towards the (LA/MS/FL) coast near the end of the 5 day period, the 11pm update has it on a W-WNW heading near the end of the 5 day period. IMO that increases the threat to LA.

Don't be so certain.

The entire gulf coast is at risk, more so the northern gulf coast.

However, I say don't be so certain...because right now, the track is VERY uncertain. I think its possible they point the track straight out into the GOM for now, instead of turning it towards the gulf coast due to uncertainty and the hurricane sensitivity.

Just a thought...

[skysummit]

Right...they keep the track straight at the end because they have no idea of what will happen at the end. I'm not concerned at this point. Now...in 3 or 4 days if it's still like that, I'll begin to get concerned and plan for long long days at work.

[Stratosphere747]

So, does this mean that the general trend will be more to the NW and N, keeping it out of the GOM? Is this what some are seeing? Local met is saying tonight that New Orleans westward is pretty much protected - not to worry. True?

Check the NHC 11pm update, New Orleans and Westward points are more under the gun now. Unlike the 5 pm forecast which showed a NW turn towards the (LA/MS/FL) coast near the end of the 5 day period, the 11pm update has it on a W-WNW heading near the end of the 5 day period. IMO that increases the threat to LA.

Don't be so certain.

The entire gulf coast is at risk, more so the northern gulf coast.

However, I say don't be so certain...because right now, the track is VERY uncertain. I think its possible they point the track straight out into the GOM for now, instead of turning it towards the gulf coast due to uncertainty and the hurricane sensitivity.

Just a thought...

Great points GK....

The problem is that this in not a "true" organized system....

Until it gets to that point, hard for not only the models but the NHC to get a handle on it...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is disorganized. I say it will take to 11am before this can get organized to be upgraded. 97L has a alot better/stronger LLC then this.

The race is on for who will become are 11th in 12th name storm. In also 97L is starting to pull its convection closer to the LLC. One ship report then boom it could be upgraded.

[LaBreeze]

I agree with your synopsis gkrangers. I'm thinking though that the high pressure in the Western GOM will hold tough through the weekend and nothing will get past Mobile or Miss. Coast. Just a thought.

[gkrangers]

I agree with your synopsis gkrangers. I'm thinking though that the high pressure in the Western GOM will hold tough through the weekend and nothing will get past Mobile or Miss. Coast. Just a thought.

I'm leaning towards an eastern GOM storm as well. How messed up would it be if there was ANOTHER landfall within 50 miles of Pensacola?

Just looking at the Euro...ridging doesnt look to be particularly strong over the western GOM, however, the ridging over the east coast should determine the track...which should be northward into the gulf coast with time. Still rather early tho...tons will change.