TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Ivanhater
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#301 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 23, 2005 10:52 pm

gkrangers wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:I agree with your synopsis gkrangers. I'm thinking though that the high pressure in the Western GOM will hold tough through the weekend and nothing will get past Mobile or Miss. Coast. Just a thought.
I'm leaning towards an eastern GOM storm as well. How messed up would it be if there was ANOTHER landfall within 50 miles of Pensacola?

Just looking at the Euro...ridging doesnt look to be particularly strong over the western GOM, however, the ridging over the east coast should determine the track...which should be northward into the gulf coast with time. Still rather early tho...tons will change.



stop saying the p word!!!! jk
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#302 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 23, 2005 10:54 pm

Knowing that the warm water is not deep near there, it would not be more then a min cat3. Here is my reasoning Ivan weaken,Dennis weaken, in many others have done the same.
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#303 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:02 pm

The only inhibiting factor I saw for this system in the near term was its poor organizations (multiple circulations, etc.) It looks like the storm has been resolving that problem over the past few hours as the convection pattern is much improved It should not take recon 2+ hours to pin down a center (the way it did this afternoon).

Everything looks favorable for this storm in the near term. I expect recon to find tropical storm force winds at some point during its mission, so I would not be surprised to see the 5 AM advisory package carry a tropical storm designation.

Potential problem down the road for the storm is the shear currently being generated by the mid-upper level cyclone, which exceeds 20 knots in the area near the Florida coast. 12Z models had no agreement whatsoever on what the situation would be with regards to shear in the mid-term. Haven't delved into the 00Z models yet to see what they are selling.
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#304 Postby boca » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:11 pm

Will the system expand once it strentgens
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#305 Postby boca » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:12 pm

Will the system expand once it strentgens
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#306 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:46 pm

Wow, I think the Canadian model just pulled one of the greatest forecast reversals of all time... compare

12Z at 144 h

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_144.jpg

00Z at 144 h

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_144.jpg

Totally dig the 978 mb low over DC...
Last edited by clfenwi on Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#307 Postby gkrangers » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:47 pm

I'm curious..does it track this 978mb low over land, or over the Atlantic ocean ?

Its doing its best impression of the GFS NYC masterpiece...
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#308 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:48 pm

LOL!

:lol:
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#309 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:49 pm

gkrangers wrote:I'm curious..does it track this 978mb low over land, or over the Atlantic ocean ?

Its doing its best impression of the GFS NYC masterpiece...


Believe it or not....over land
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#310 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:50 pm

You know that the NE weenies are gonna see that and start checking the 850 0C isotherm.......
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#311 Postby Chigger_Lopez » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:53 pm

Check out the latest loop and how 12 just pulls in all of the surrounding convection in the last 2 loops. It just collapsed and made it self stronger. That is scary looking right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#312 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:56 pm

Kinda looks like it sucked in all those cuban storms.
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#313 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:59 pm

Chigger_Lopez wrote:Check out the latest loop and how 12 just pulls in all of the surrounding convection in the last 2 loops. It just collapsed and made it self stronger. That is scary looking right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


The system still has virtually no western side to it. As long as it's in that condition it cannot significantly strengthen.

However, WV suggests that the UL is darting SW at a good clip. Once the UL is to the SW of TD12 you should see this thing strengthen.
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gkrangers

#314 Postby gkrangers » Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:06 am

sma10 wrote:You know that the NE weenies are gonna see that and start checking the 850 0C isotherm.......
:D :D :D :D
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#315 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:38 am

00Z GFDL pulls the storm further west than previous run after 72h...

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE 12L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 75.8 300./ 6.0
6 23.6 76.7 304./10.5
12 24.3 77.0 337./ 7.6
18 24.8 77.0 4./ 4.9
24 25.2 77.3 319./ 5.5
30 25.8 78.0 311./ 8.5
36 26.0 78.5 288./ 4.7
42 25.8 78.8 242./ 2.9
48 25.5 79.2 233./ 5.2
54 25.3 79.6 239./ 4.2
60 25.2 80.0 261./ 3.4
66 25.6 80.6 300./ 6.5
72 25.6 81.4 273./ 7.5
78 25.6 82.4 266./ 8.8
84 25.7 83.1 279./ 6.0
90 26.0 83.4 308./ 4.5
96 26.3 84.1 298./ 6.3
102 26.8 85.1 296./11.0
108 27.3 86.1 298./ 9.8
114 27.7 86.6 310./ 6.1
120 28.1 87.1 306./ 5.7
126 28.6 87.6 312./ 6.9
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#316 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:46 am

when is that ULL going to move away from td 12? anyone know :?:
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#317 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:47 am

A small storm is forming. Hmmm, a compact storm over the Gulf Stream?
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#318 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:49 am

UKMET model guidance

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 75.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2005 23.2N 75.5W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2005 24.6N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2005 25.5N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2005 26.1N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2005 26.1N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2005 25.5N 81.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2005 25.5N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2005 25.3N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2005 26.4N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2005 26.4N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2005 27.2N 86.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2005 27.9N 88.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
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#319 Postby Huckster » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:21 am

Latest GFDL and UKMET are plotted here...

Image
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#320 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:40 am

24/0615 UTC 23.5N 76.0W T2.5/2.5 12 -- Atlantic Ocean
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