TD # 12 Getting It's Act Together Early This Morning...

[Sean in New Orleans]

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/S ... e_anim.gif

[Sanibel]

Not the kind of deepening you want to see before the Gulf Stream. Compact storms spin-up faster over the GS...

[Huckster]

Unfortunately, that's about two hours old. I think we're in that darned eclipse period right now that always happens this time of year, but based on the last images we've got, it looked like it was getting its act together. I am gonna wait up until the new satellite pics come in. If the trend has continued, I suspect we'll see an even healthier TD nearing TS strength.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We have no tropical storm hear not even close. The recon just reported back a whole 21 knots of flight level winds.

[ericinmia]

I'm sure you all have this, but here is a good link for sat's when they come back (E-wall)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... entir.html

[JamesFromMaine2]

We have no tropical storm hear not even close. The recon just reported back a whole 21 knots of flight level winds.

there were also some 31, 32, and 33mph flight level winds if you check some of the newest ones!

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's a no-brainer that this will be a storm sometime tomorrow, but I'm banking on later in the day as opposed to earlier. There really isn't any reason for it not to become a storm, but just taking its sweet time.. More than likely it will quickly become a hurricane once it gets back over the gulf. At least the ships are taking it to that strength, as as fast as Jose strenghtened in the gulf , this probably won't be any different.

I'm eating crow on this one!! Alot of us completely blew this storm off as nothing, and I'm sure many of us are having our crow tonight! Congratz to those who saw this coming!

[JamesFromMaine2]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: CYCLONE (12L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF307
Flt Data Number: 23
Latest Recon Position: 194 mi N of Guantanamo, Cuba

Ob #01: 06:09:30Z; 23.1°N 75.4°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 32 mph; Radar Altitude: 2625 ft
Ob #02: 06:10:00Z; 23°N 75.4°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 32 mph; Radar Altitude: 2628 ft
Ob #03: 06:10:30Z; 23°N 75.3°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 33 mph; Radar Altitude: 2628 ft
Ob #04: 06:11:00Z; 23°N 75.3°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 39 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 35 mph; Radar Altitude: 2628 ft
Ob #05: 06:11:30Z; 23°N 75.3°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 35 mph; Radar Altitude: 2635 ft
Ob #06: 06:12:00Z; 23°N 75.3°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 46 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 35 mph; Radar Altitude: 2638 ft
Ob #07: 06:12:30Z; 22.9°N 75.3°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 49 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 66°F; Max Wind: 32 mph; Radar Altitude: 2641 ft
Ob #08: 06:13:00Z; 22.9°N 75.2°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 49 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 32 mph; Radar Altitude: 2641 ft
Ob #09: 06:13:30Z; 22.9°N 75.2°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 35 mph; Radar Altitude: 2644 ft
Ob #10: 06:14:00Z; 22.9°N 75.2°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: SSW (209°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 38 mph; Radar Altitude: 2644 ft
Ob #11: 06:14:30Z; 22.9°N 75.2°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 37 mph; Radar Altitude: 2644 ft
Ob #12: 06:15:00Z; 22.9°N 75.2°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: SSW (202°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 39 mph; Radar Altitude: 2648 ft
Ob #13: 06:15:30Z; 22.8°N 75.2°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: SSW (201°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 39 mph; Radar Altitude: 2648 ft
Ob #14: 06:16:00Z; 22.8°N 75.1°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SSW (200°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 67°F; Max Wind: 38 mph; Radar Altitude: 2651 ft
Ob #15: 06:16:30Z; 22.8°N 75.1°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 67°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2651 ft
Ob #16: 06:17:00Z; 22.8°N 75.1°W; PA: 2523 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: SSW (197°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 67°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2654 ft
Ob #17: 06:17:30Z; 22.8°N 75.1°W; PA: 2526 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2657 ft
Ob #18: 06:18:00Z; 22.8°N 75.1°W; PA: 2526 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SSW (200°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 35 mph; Radar Altitude: 2661 ft
Ob #19: 06:18:30Z; 22.7°N 75°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 69 ft; Wind: SSW (200°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 2654 ft
Ob #20: 06:19:00Z; 22.7°N 75°W; PA: 2516 ft; D-Value: 69 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 69°F; Max Wind: 37 mph; Radar Altitude: 2657 ft

[Huckster]

Alrighty, the latest satellite images have come in, and it looks like the "thing" is a little better organized. The area of convection has slightly increased. A slight increase in organization in two hours is not bad, all things considered. BTW Matt, remember that at 35 mph (per latest advisory) it already is nearing TS strength It's entirely possible that it could be a TS by the next advisory, though I think it will probably not be until the 10/11 am advisory that it becomes Katrina.

[TS Zack]

One thing it has going for it is deep convection!

I think we may see a Hurricane before Fl.

[Deenac813]

One thing it has going for it is deep convection!

I think we may see a Hurricane before Fl.

I think so too but just a Cat 1.

[BamaMan]

Yup, Most convection NE of the center, but most definitely seems to be starting to get things in place to be Katrina today.

[BigA]

I would not be surprised if it was a tropical storm already. It has flightl level winds of 45 knots, which seems to translate on the ground to 45 mph. Anyway, the pressure is falling, and if it isnt a TS it will be one today.

[HollynLA]

I would not be surprised if it was a tropical storm already. It has flightl level winds of 45 knots, which seems to translate on the ground to 45 mph. Anyway, the pressure is falling, and if it isnt a TS it will be one today.

I agree, I think it will be a strong TS or minimal hurricane at FL landfall but I think that's nothing compared to what we'll see when it enters the gulf. I think extreme rapid strengthening will happen then. Have you checked the northern GOM temps lately. Boiling hot!

[wxwatcher91]

12 is getting sheared on the western side causing most of the convection to be replaced to the east or northeast of the center. the FL winds that recon found were in the area of coldest cloud tops however that area is well east of the center... the ULL needs to leave or weaken or something before 12 can really get its act together

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What shear? I don't see any flating of the edges of the clouds or the clouds pushing away from the LLC. It is the opposite which is going on. The LLC is just about totally covered by deep convection. In this thing is off to the races...A sheared system doe's not pull its darn Cdo over its LLC. Watch this storm very carefully over the next 12 hours.

Also like Arlene did not have its 40 mph winds far from the center. It had it farther then this system has it.

[jlauderdal]

12 is getting sheared on the western side causing most of the convection to be replaced to the east or northeast of the center. the FL winds that recon found were in the area of coldest cloud tops however that area is well east of the center... the ULL needs to leave or weaken or something before 12 can really get its act together

shear is extremely weak and not forecast to be strong. this sytem looks better than ever at least on IR. i suspect those 40+ knot winds recon found well east of the center 4 hours ago are alot closer in now. my awareness factor was 2% sunday jumped to 50 yesterday evening as now at 80. i am saying at least a cat 1 at first landfall in the SE US. slow mover, very warm sst's over virgin water, no landmass to weaken it, system in an organizing state. all this spells cat 1 at least.

[wxwatcher91]

What shear? I don't see any flating of the edges of the clouds or the clouds pushing away from the LLC. It is the opposite which is going on. The LLC is just about totally covered by deep convection. In this thing is off to the races...A sheared system doe's not pull its darn Cdo over its LLC. Watch this storm very carefully over the next 12 hours.

Also like Arlene did not have its 40 mph winds far from the center. It had it farther then this system has it.

Matt can you make up your mind whether you think this system will form or not. I'm sorry but just from your two posts in this thread, it is noticable that you are a bit split

We have no tropical storm hear not even close. The recon just reported back a whole 21 knots of flight level winds.

anyway... it IS getting sheared on the western side a bit... you said so yourself in another thread... but I will agree with you that it is ready to do something big in these hot waters

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I did that because the system was disorganized earlier. But now since it is clearly has formed a Central core. Its pretty easy to see that this thing could go. It could of went both ways at that time. In also that was a recon earlier on the weak western side. That was before the stronger winds where found out over the Eastern side.

[KWT]

First visable now:

http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/Carribbean.gif