TD # 12 Getting It's Act Together Early This Morning...

[wxwatcher91]

12 is getting sheared on the western side causing most of the convection to be replaced to the east or northeast of the center. the FL winds that recon found were in the area of coldest cloud tops however that area is well east of the center... the ULL needs to leave or weaken or something before 12 can really get its act together

shear is extremely weak and not forecast to be strong. this sytem looks better than ever at least on IR. i suspect those 40+ knot winds recon found well east of the center 4 hours ago are alot closer in now. my awareness factor was 2% sunday jumped to 50 yesterday evening as now at 80. i am saying at least a cat 1 at first landfall in the SE US. slow mover, very warm sst's over virgin water, no landmass to weaken it, system in an organizing state. all this spells cat 1 at least.

I'm not sure about a hurricane at first landfall... I suppose maybe like 75mph but I doubt anything higher than that... my forecast intensity at landfall is 60 to 75mph

after it crosses Florida, down to 45 to 50mph.
then I think it will explode over the Gulf averaging at least 5mph increase and/or 3mb reduction every 6 hours until 2nd landfall. this forecast would put 12 (Katrina) at just under major hurricane status at 2nd landfall...

I decided upon this forecast because not only is the most of the GOM containing 90+F waters, it is also fairly moist with no dry air at least in the eastern 2/3 of the Gulf... the only thing that could subdue strenthening in the GOM is once again shear... latest shows 20kt shear over the northern GOM... it is possible however that that will lift northwards before 12 (Katrina) enters the GOM.

[DESTRUCTION5]

TS at 11 Guaranteed....This is the DESTRUCTION5 Call Katrina is feasting with no shear and 93 degree waters right now...DO NT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 90 MPH Hurricane at Landfall.. Been saying it all week Cat 1 in the Bahamas No changes I say were looking at a 50 MPH storm as we speak....

[Windsong]

Yes, you have. Good call, and I still think you are right.

[wxwatcher91]

another 45kt FL wind report...

1146 2503N 07539W 00789 0011 142 043 198 192 044 00820 0000000000
1146. 2504N 07538W 00789 0012 141 044 196 196 045 00822 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

45 knot from the northeast quad earlier then a new one from the northwest. Shows that this system maybe even stronger now on its northeast. I don't understand why on earth is it not upgrade?

[Swimdude]

Doesn't make sense... Hmmm, last updated said "nearing TS strength." I'm fairly sure TD12 is already there.

[gatorcane]

TS at 11 Guaranteed....This is the DESTRUCTION5 Call Katrina is feasting with no shear and 93 degree waters right now...DO NT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 90 MPH Hurricane at Landfall.. Been saying it all week Cat 1 in the Bahamas No changes I say were looking at a 50 MPH storm as we speak....

Agreed. Once that dry air pocket is gone in the next 12 hours or so it will explode and I expect to see a hurricane. I really think many here in S. Florida will be caught way off guard by this one. It's going to wreak havok especially with the wind gusts.

[dolphinslady]

Right now it's moving NW so are they expecting it to change directions to W? The models show it hitting more southern Florida but the current track looks right back around here again.

Just wondering why the change in direction is expected...

Thanks!

[gatorcane]

Right now it's moving NW so are they expecting it to change directions to W? The models show it hitting more southern Florida but the current track looks right back around here again.

Just wondering why the change in direction is expected...

Thanks!

A ridge of H pressure is building around N Florida and it will start to curve it more W later tonight and tomorrow.

[ronjon]

Right now it's moving NW so are they expecting it to change directions to W? The models show it hitting more southern Florida but the current track looks right back around here again.

Just wondering why the change in direction is expected...

Thanks!

The system is getting better organized and appears to moving N-NW over the last several hours. As it strengthens, it will tend to be drawn toward the existing weakness in the ridge. If this movement continues thru today, I'd expect the track to be shifted further northward with a landfall perhaps as far north as Vero or Melbourne. There will be a blocking high building north of the storm that will turn it toward the peninsula, but it may get a little higher in latitude than NHC is predicting now before that turn.