Hurricane Katrina
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143865
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...
375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...
375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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feederband
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I'm waiting for the discussion, but it looks like the forecast track is narrowing down to Pensacola-Panama City landfall maybe centered around/near the Destin-Ft. Walton area. Water is warm enough for a strong system but probably not that warm that it would cross too far into the IH categories with the limited time it would have in the Eastern and Northeastern Gulf.
Steve
Steve
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Brent
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cjrciadt wrote:Weather Channel just showed the TS warning then the map froze before they show Hurricane watches for Florida. Then showed Hurricane Warnings instead. Then they showed the Facts for Hurricane Emily for South Texas!!!!
Good thing I use Storm2K now!!!! Well at least the advisory was right.
That was HILARIOUS.
I wish I had recorded that...
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#neversummer
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cycloneye
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON
925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75
PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE
DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN
RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES
ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL
THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA
INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS
AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD.
KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD
IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON
925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75
PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE
DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN
RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES
ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL
THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA
INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS
AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD.
KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD
IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT
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#neversummer
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Brent wrote:TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON
925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75
PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE
DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN
RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES
ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL
THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA
INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS
AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD.
KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD
IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT
Ok Simple math here 24hrs X say 7 MPH moving NW =168 miles further north than it is now...Thats SLC...Where does the Broward come in?
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
580
WTNT32 KNHC 241755
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT32 KNHC 241755
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
A friend of mine said that this reminds him of Erin's (1995) track (not intensity, however).
Since Miami is at 25.4, and Katrina is at 25.2, now I can say that it's at the same latitude as Miami!
Apparently Katrina is still being influenced by the ULL to it's west. In fact, I might have to visit the bumper sticker store and have one made up that says "I (heart symbol) ULL's!"
Frank
P.S. Interesting to note that the NHC did not mention South Florida in the latest byline, but only the Bahamas...
Since Miami is at 25.4, and Katrina is at 25.2, now I can say that it's at the same latitude as Miami!
Apparently Katrina is still being influenced by the ULL to it's west. In fact, I might have to visit the bumper sticker store and have one made up that says "I (heart symbol) ULL's!"
Frank
P.S. Interesting to note that the NHC did not mention South Florida in the latest byline, but only the Bahamas...
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Andrew92
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Frank,
If I were you, I wouldn't buy one of those bumper stickers right now if you're on the East Coast of Florida like I think you are. I'd be preparing for the storm just in case it intensifies and heads your way. But that's just me, as I've never been through a hurricane (and have no desire to go through one either).
You just never know what's going to happen in the tropics.
-Andrew92
If I were you, I wouldn't buy one of those bumper stickers right now if you're on the East Coast of Florida like I think you are. I'd be preparing for the storm just in case it intensifies and heads your way. But that's just me, as I've never been through a hurricane (and have no desire to go through one either).
You just never know what's going to happen in the tropics.
-Andrew92
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I know, but, having lost the house and community in Andrew 13 years ago today, sometimes it helps to have a sense of humor.
To be brutally honest, the latitude and direction given in the 2 p.m. advisory does make myself (and I'm sure many here in Fort Lauderdale and Miami) breath a bit easier, though we still must monitor the situation.
I am concerned for areas to the north of here, but, the best we can do here is pray and hope for the best...
Frank
To be brutally honest, the latitude and direction given in the 2 p.m. advisory does make myself (and I'm sure many here in Fort Lauderdale and Miami) breath a bit easier, though we still must monitor the situation.
I am concerned for areas to the north of here, but, the best we can do here is pray and hope for the best...
Frank
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