GUTS IN with Katrina Forecast - August 24, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf of Mexico Tropical Summary - GUTS IN on August 24, 2005

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/guts20050824.jpg">

First, I'll reference the upper/mid level low in the BOC. It's moving west
and I do not expect this to develop in to a tropical cyclone. It may
produce heavy rains in areas that Jose visited earlier in the week.

The strong ridge over the southeast continues to dominate the region,
with a strong easterly flow over most of the Gulf of Mexico.

PLEASE FOLLOW NHC AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR OFFICIAL GUIDANCE
AND ACTIONS YOU SHOULD TAKE REGARDING KATRINA

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Katrina continues to get better
organized as she moves northwest through the Bahamas. A weak
upper level low just to the northwest of Katrina will influence the
direction of Katrina for the next 24 hours. Depending on how much this
ULL interacts with Katrina, the storm may be a little north or south of
my plot. After 24 hours, the influence of the ULL will fade as it moves WSW.

Katrina will then become under the influence of the ridge over the
southeast US and move WNW to NW across the eastern GOM.
I have notated four positions along my forecast path for Katrina.

1) First landfall, likely as a strong tropical storm, with an outside shot of
becoming a minimal hurricane.

2) Exiting Florida, likely as a weak tropical storm

3) Moving across 90 degree SST's in the GOM, strengthening as a cat 1/2

4) Approaching the Northern Gulf Coast as a cat 2/3

The second landfall will most likely be between Grand Isle, Louisiana
and Pensacola, Florida. We'll know more about Katrina after she
moves into the Gulf this weekend. Stay tuned!

[BamaMan]

Nice forecast dh, but I sure hope you are incorrect

[dhweather]

Thanks - I don't like drawing them in my direction either!

[BamaMan]

Yup, I see. We're just about neighbors

[BamaMan]

Yup, I see. We're just about neighbors

[BamaMan]

Ooops Sorry bout the repeats
No worries... fixed for ya.