Hurricane Katrina Recon Reports

[Thunder44]

So despite what we see on satellite, it's not strenghtening.

[HURAKAN]

2.5 Dvorak and 45 knots from the RECON is not enough to upgrade this system to Katrina?

[cycloneye]

So despite what we see on satellite, it's not strenghtening.

It's what is inside not what we see from the outside.

[Thunder44]

45kts this time in NW quad. The last 45kts was in the E Quad.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2.5 Dvorak and 45 knots from the RECON is not enough to upgrade this system to Katrina?

I don't get that my self

[StormsAhead]

45kts this time in NW quad. The last 45kts was in the E Quad.

No this time it was in the NE quad. I think there may be higher winds in the E quad, but it will be a long time until recon goes there.

[StormsAhead]

2.5 Dvorak and 45 knots from the RECON is not enough to upgrade this system to Katrina?

They may upgrade soon because the 45 knots is now only 58 NM from the center, not 70-90 NM.

[Thunder44]

45kts this time in NW quad. The last 45kts was in the E Quad.

No this time it was in the NE quad. I think there may be higher winds in the E quad, but it will be a long time until recon goes there.

Sorry, my mistake. I thought those were ENE winds. They are SE.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 241200
AF307 0212A CYCLONE HDOB 57 KNHC
1149. 2511N 07531W 00789 0018 142 036 198 198 036 00828 0000000000
1150 2512N 07529W 00787 0019 138 034 198 198 035 00827 0000000000
1150. 2513N 07528W 00788 0020 135 032 198 196 033 00829 0000000000
1151 2514N 07527W 00791 0021 138 032 204 190 032 00833 0000000000
1151. 2515N 07526W 00789 0022 137 036 198 196 038 00831 0000000000
1152 2516N 07524W 00787 0023 132 041 198 192 042 00831 0000000000
1152. 2517N 07523W 00789 0023 131 042 200 188 043 00833 0000000000
1153 2518N 07522W 00787 0024 129 048 190 190 048 00831 0000000000
1153. 2519N 07521W 00791 0025 131 046 190 190 047 00837 0000000000
1154 2520N 07520W 00787 0025 131 043 190 190 045 00833 0000000000
1154. 2522N 07519W 00790 0027 132 043 198 198 045 00837 0000000000
1155 2523N 07517W 00787 0027 134 043 202 200 043 00835 0000000000
1155. 2524N 07516W 00791 0028 134 042 206 192 043 00840 0000000000
1156 2525N 07515W 00787 0029 134 041 210 188 041 00836 0000000000
1156. 2526N 07514W 00789 0029 133 039 212 188 040 00839 0000000000
1157 2527N 07512W 00789 0030 133 037 212 188 038 00841 0000000000
1157. 2528N 07511W 00789 0030 136 037 212 188 037 00840 0000000000
1158 2529N 07510W 00788 0031 138 039 210 188 040 00840 0000000000
1158. 2530N 07509W 00789 0032 136 039 206 198 040 00842 0000000000
1159 2531N 07508W 00789 0032 139 040 208 194 040 00842 0000000000

Now 48 knots, but this is 78 NM away from the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Arlene was upgraded based on a 40 mph winds around 100 miles or more away. 48 knots come on now. Do these really have to go over 50 knots for a weak tropical storm?

[StormsAhead]

Arlene was upgraded based on a 40 mph winds around 100 miles or more away. 48 knots come on now. Do these really have to go over 50 knots for a weak tropical storm?

Actually, according to the special advisory issued at 8 AM on June 9, it was because of a ship report of TS winds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al012005.discus.004.shtml?

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 241205
97779 12014 40256 75018 07900 14040 20202 /9794
41025
RMK AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 25
NE QUAD
LAST REPORT

Last report until around 17z.

[Thunder44]

813
URNT11 KNHC 241205
97779 12014 40256 75018 07900 14040 20202 /9794
41025
RMK AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 25
NE QUAD
LAST REPORT

There out of there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

But you also have to remember that a ship is off the surface. They can't even trust there own recon? Why on earth are we spending money on it then??? Also many a tropcial cyclone mainly disorganized ones have there winds away from the LLC. If this go's over 50 knots flight level then wow. That blows me away.

[cycloneye]

FLIGHT ONE
A. 24/1800,25/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE
C. 24/1400Z
D. 24.5N 77.5W
E. 24/1700Z TO 25/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Next mission early this afternoon after 1 PM EDT.

[gatorcane]

No this time it was in the NE quad. I think there may be higher winds in the E quad, but it will be a long time until recon goes there.

It has the potential to explode in just a few hours and the intensity is going to be tricky, the NHC explicitly acknowledges that for this one. I sure hope it doesn't bomb out and catch us off guard right now because many are seeing this as a depression/TS and think who cares? I would have upgraded to a T.S looking at the numbers to help people not be as complacent.

[gatorcane]

I'm surprised I'm the first to post this:

000
WTNT62 KNHC 241209
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...

SHORTLY BEFORE 8 AM EDT...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 40 MPH
...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA.

FORECASTER STEWART

I spoke just a bit to soon

[HURAKAN]

KATRINA IS IN THE HOUSE!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah at least 40 mph...Looks like we got another record.

[Thunder44]

New Plane is on the way!

292
URNT11 KNHC 241506
97779 15004 40284 88100 70100 99005 64711 /5762
RMK AF304 0312A KATRINA OB 01