Katrina not a major hurricane threat, why?

[Stormcenter]

Folks I know a lot of you are concerned about Katrina but the NHC doesn't seem to think she will be anything more than a cat.1 storm and doesn't even mention her possibly becoming a major hurricane now or even after she enters the GOM. Their outlook only has her up to cat.1 strenghth even deep into the GOM. Will shear be factor inhibiting her strenghthening?

initial 24/1500z 24.7n 76.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 25/0000z 25.4n 77.4w 40 kt
24hr VT 25/1200z 25.9n 78.4w 45 kt
36hr VT 26/0000z 26.0n 79.2w 55 kt
48hr VT 26/1200z 26.1n 80.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 27/1200z 26.3n 82.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 28/1200z 27.0n 84.5w 55 kt
120hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 86.0w 65 kt

[wxwatcher91]

I think the NHC doesnt want to go too drastic in the forecast this early on...

also it is quite possible that she doesnt become a MH threat... it all depends on track: if she turns north early in the GOM she wont have a lot of time to strengthen... if she keeps heading west then she could reach MH status... thats why a Florida panhandle strike really wouldnt be too bad: Katrina wouldnt have had enough time to strengthen much after exitting the Florida peninsula.

[cjrciadt]

I think the NHC doesnt want to go too drastic in the forecast this early on...

also it is quite possible that she doesnt become a MH threat... it all depends on track: if she turns north early in the GOM she wont have a lot of time to strengthen... if she keeps heading west then she could reach MH status... thats why a Florida panhandle strike really wouldnt be too bad: Katrina wouldnt have had enough time to strengthen much after exitting the Florida peninsula.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145105.shtml?chart?large
The NHC is leaving the chance for it to intesify greatly in the GOM. The GFDL is way out there with it hitting the panhandle with 947mb pressure (Cat 4).

[artist]

in the 11 am it was mentioned that she could strengthen more.

[gatorcane]

again I reiterate just this time yesterday morning there was no depression! Then the NHC predicted a minimal TS to hit FL yesterday afternoon and now a minimal hurricane....what is next this time tomorrow? I dont' want to be an alarmist but it could easily happen as the conditions are becoming close to ideal for it.

if it moves slow as they predict it could be a major so don't rule out that possiblity as the title of this thread implies.

[dixiebreeze]

again I reiterate just this time yesterday morning there was no depression! Then the NHC predicted a minimal TS to hit FL yesterday afternoon and now a minimal hurricane....what is next this time tomorrow? I dont' want to be an alarmist but it could easily happen as the conditions are becoming close to ideal for it.

if it moves slow as they predict it could be a major so don't rule out that possiblity as the title of this thread implies.

Good analysis Boca Chris.

[NastyCat4]

He's an alarmist--strong tropical storm on landfall in the Fort Lauderdale area, and a Cat 1 in the Gulf. Some folks insist on whipping things up needlessly. I will go with the NHC on this one.

[Brent]

He's an alarmist--strong tropical storm on landfall in the Fort Lauderdale area, and a Cat 1 in the Gulf. Some folks insist on whipping things up needlessly. I will go with the NHC on this one.

Yeah that.

Although, I wouldn't rule out a Cat 1 for the 1st landfall.

[gtalum]

Although, I wouldn't rule out a Cat 1 for the 1st landfall.

Neither has the NHC.

[Brent]

Although, I wouldn't rule out a Cat 1 for the 1st landfall.

Neither has the NHC.

That should be "I'm expecting a Cat 1", 70 mph or 75 mph... there really is no difference in terms of damage.

[jkt21787]

He's an alarmist--strong tropical storm on landfall in the Fort Lauderdale area, and a Cat 1 in the Gulf. Some folks insist on whipping things up needlessly. I will go with the NHC on this one.

Though the NHC track does end in the gulf as a cat 1, its very possible if not likely it will be stronger afterward because conditions look rather favorable. Plus, NHC has even said the latter portion of the intensity forecast could be underestimated. Will depend on how much time is spent over FL.

Storng TS/perhaps minimal cane for FL.

[JamesFromMaine2]

on the NHC's forcast track it does have it as a cat 1 just as its making landfall!

[jkt21787]

on the NHC's forcast track it does have it as a cat 1 just as its making landfall!

I am aware of that, but would rather see the storm get a little stronger than 40 mph before going gung ho on a minimal cane 1st landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Folks I know a lot of you are concerned about Katrina but the NHC doesn't seem to think she will be anything more than a cat.1 storm and doesn't even mention her possibly becoming a major hurricane now or even after she enters the GOM. Their outlook only has her up to cat.1 strenghth even deep into the GOM. Will shear be factor inhibiting her strenghthening?

initial 24/1500z 24.7n 76.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 25/0000z 25.4n 77.4w 40 kt
24hr VT 25/1200z 25.9n 78.4w 45 kt
36hr VT 26/0000z 26.0n 79.2w 55 kt
48hr VT 26/1200z 26.1n 80.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 27/1200z 26.3n 82.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 28/1200z 27.0n 84.5w 55 kt
120hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 86.0w 65 kt

Intensity forecasting is a mystery and they admit it. If anyone is banking on the intensity being totally correct then they are asking for trouble.

[jax]

Folks I know a lot of you are concerned about Katrina but the NHC doesn't seem to think she will be anything more than a cat.1 storm and doesn't even mention her possibly becoming a major hurricane now or even after she enters the GOM. Their outlook only has her up to cat.1 strenghth even deep into the GOM. Will shear be factor inhibiting her strenghthening?

initial 24/1500z 24.7n 76.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 25/0000z 25.4n 77.4w 40 kt
24hr VT 25/1200z 25.9n 78.4w 45 kt
36hr VT 26/0000z 26.0n 79.2w 55 kt
48hr VT 26/1200z 26.1n 80.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 27/1200z 26.3n 82.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 28/1200z 27.0n 84.5w 55 kt
120hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 86.0w 65 kt

that's because the NHC doesn't give out 6-10 day forcasts...

[gkrangers]

NHC forecast goes out to only 120 hours....at that point...Katrina will be trying to get its act back together after being over land....after 120 hours, it'll have another 2+ days to strenghthen over the gulf. The intensity forecast will go higher.

Just because they say 65kts at 120 hours, doesn't mean they aren't expecting 100 knots in 144 or 168 hours.

[Brent]

Let's also remember the NHC intensity forecasts are subject to LARGE errors, especially beyond Day 3. In fact, I'd be shocked if they got it even close to right...

[Swimdude]

Yeah, NHS is notoriously HORRIBLE at intensity forecasts.

Just yesterday, they said the storm wouldn't be on land by day 5, and would be a 65 kt hurricane by then... Now, they're calling for a 65 kt hurricane in 48 hours. Inconsistent. I would definately be worried.

[cjrciadt]

Yeah, NHS is notoriously HORRIBLE at intensity forecasts.

Just yesterday, they said the storm wouldn't be on land by day 5, and would be a 65 kt hurricane by then... Now, they're calling for a 65 kt hurricane in 48 hours. Inconsistent. I would definately be worried.

Expect Recon numbers in 15 mins then we will know how much it has intensified.

[gkrangers]

Yeah, NHS is notoriously HORRIBLE at intensity forecasts.

Just yesterday, they said the storm wouldn't be on land by day 5, and would be a 65 kt hurricane by then... Now, they're calling for a 65 kt hurricane in 48 hours. Inconsistent. I would definately be worried.

What are you talking about? They've been forecasting a 55-65kt storm to make landfall in SE Florida in the same time frame, in all 4 advisories so far.