What a huge shift eastward
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
frederic79
- Category 1
- Posts: 271
- Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 8:48 pm
- Location: Grand Bay, AL
Pros please weigh in on this; let's say because the Hurricane Center readily admits to uncertainty in intesity forecasting, especially 5 days out, Katrina gets stronger than predicted due to either slower movement, better conditions, warm eddy, etc. Would this and if so, how, change the second landfall location? At this point, they predict a minimal hurricane prior to the second landfall. What if it managed to become a major?
0 likes
I'm not a pro, but it would depend on where that bonus intensification took place and what the upper air charts & progs look like at that time. Assuming NHC future thinking on the 30-31N high pressure pans out, a stronger system could help deepen the trough that would be to the NNW/NW of the Katrina nudging it northward farther east. The mitigating factor would be that super strong hurricanes don't generally make FL landfall east of St. George Island (+/- south of Tallahassee) or north of Cedar Key. If it's going to be a major, it's likely coming in between Panama City Beach and Bay St. Louis regardless (though I still think Santa Rosa/Okaloosa/Walton Cos. FL as a 1 or 2 looks like the best scneario right now).
Steve
Steve
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Argcane, riapal, Sciencerocks and 294 guests