TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tw861]

Yeah, I agree with ya...interesting indeed...but, if that LLC is further north..where the big convection is right now, then that is starting to round the bend...like wnw or nearly west...jmho

Upon further review. It appears on the MIA radar that either there is a small circulation that was just south of the eastern tip of the island Nassau in on, that seems to be moving north in the direction of the possible mid level center. (you have to look very closely to pick this up and on the last frame you really can't see it anymore.

OR

There is a broader LL center to the S or SW of Nassau.

I still think that if that is a MLC up near all of the heavier convection, a new center will eventually form beneath it because it certainly looks pretty healthy.

Either way you go, it still appears that a majority of the northward component has ended and the motion is more to the WNW now.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's now got much better outflow, based on the visible imagery floater. Anyone else notice this?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[deltadog03]

yeah, looks MUCH better and i think if that area of convection becomes the new Center watch out..cuz, that looks really healthy

[MiamiensisWx]

Upon further review. It appears on the MIA radar that either there is a small circulation that was just south of the eastern tip of the island Nassau in on, that seems to be moving north in the direction of the possible mid level center. (you have to look very closely to pick this up and on the last frame you really can't see it anymore.

OR

There is a broader LL center to the S or SW of Nassau.

I still think that if that is a MLC up near all of the heavier convection, a new center will eventually form beneath it because it certainly looks pretty healthy.

Either way you go, it still appears that a majority of the northward component has ended and the motion is more to the WNW now.

Agreed. It is now starting to shift on a track more similar to a northwest or west-northwest track.

[x-y-no]

It's a bit early to be sure, but I have the impression we are getting a bit of a turn to the NW or even WNW. Need a couple hours more to be sure it isn't an illusion or a wobble, though.

In support of the idea, it does look on WV like the ULL is moving WSW pretty quickly out of the way, and the outflow to the NE and N is getting flattened as the ridge builds.

[Air Force Met]

It's a bit early to be sure, but I have the impression we are getting a bit of a turn to the NW or even WNW. Need a couple hours more to be sure it isn't an illusion or a wobble, though.

In support of the idea, it does look on WV like the ULL is moving WSW pretty quickly out of the way, and the outflow to the NE and N is getting flattened as the ridge builds.

Looks that way to me...especially looking at the Miami long range radar.

[Stormcenter]

Heck it almost looks like she is moving due west looking at the radar loop out Miami, FL. but she definitely has shifted on a more westerly course than NW.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

[Javlin]

It looks the same to me also she is starting to ride the N edge of the UL and looks to be accelerating some maybe.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[dwg71]

Does it appear that center may be reforming again this time further north and east?? NE of Eleuthera Island. Convection seems to be intensifying in that area and dying near Nassau.

[Rainband]

Looks west now. More West than Northwest anyway. Could be a wobble but with the weak steering..this is gonna be a pain in the butt for days.

[deltadog03]

to me, it looks west too...or very close to that...if that LLC had or is relocating to that northward band, it should take off soon...radar looking better under that convection

[MiamiensisWx]

Outflow and circulation appears to be continuing to improve. Now it really is starting to look like a tropical storm...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

[fci]

WOW, very West and looking much better organized.
I was REALLY counting on the Northerly component to stay and it to pass north of here in Palm Beach County.
Don't like a Broward landfall AT ALL.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

Any chance of a Cat 2 landfall here? Or is 75 to 90 mph the most likely outcome? It seems that if it reaches 60 or 70 mph with still 36-48 hours to landfall then it would have at least a slight chance of a Cat 2 with all that warm water.

[Sanibel]

If the Miami long-range is picking this up correctly it is moving more west.

I thought I saw a curve north last night. Guess I was right. I guess a ridge is now impacting it.

Let's see what a slow crossing of the Gulf Stream does. If it bombs NHC is going to be caught with its pants down and the privy door wide open in public. The panic would be a madhouse...

[SouthFloridawx]

is it just me or is this thing really starting to look like a tropical storm developing into a hurricane?

[cycloneye]

is it just me or is this thing really starting to look like a tropical storm developing into a hurricane?

We will find out when Recon gets there this afternoon and see how strong is the storm.

[Sanibel]

It has the look of muscling up around an eye center. Like a forming hurricane...

[Rainband]

is it just me or is this thing really starting to look like a tropical storm developing into a hurricane?

We will find out when Recon gets there this afternoon and see how strong is the storm.

I agree.

[gatorcane]

I don't think anybody should be surprised about how fast it is strengthening....it has nearly ideal conditions...with some of the hottest waters in the entire Atlantic...the only inhibiting factor is the ULL which is moving out to the SW now and will be a nonfactor very soon.