Westward Shift??

[gk1]

I think that the 2nd landfall will shift westward with time. Looking at the current wind pattern, it's hard to believe and 2nd landfall in Florida!! But I have learned not to doubt the NHC. They have been doing a great job this year!!!!

[HollynLA]

You're right, the NHC has been improving on their forecasts but the second landfall is still 6 days out so there still a LARGE cone of error. They usually will have a good handle on it at 3 days out.

[Sanibel]

Miami long range radar shows the storm turning west...

[WeatherEmperor]

Miami long range radar shows the storm turning west...

yeah i can see it starting to come into view on the Miami radar as well. Still a bit too difficult to determine its motion on that radar.

<RICKY>

[Rainband]

Can't wait for recon. It does appear west but that may be wrong??

[mvtrucking]

It appears to be following the NHC's forecast points.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

No doubt it's more westward now.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

[mahicks]

Remember, radar can be VERY DECEIVING in terms of motion...

[jkt21787]

Remember, radar can be VERY DECEIVING in terms of motion...

I think its pretty clear we are moving more west than earlier today, a sure sign of the ridge to the north.

[Stratosphere747]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.1kmvis.html

Much easier to follow than the Miami or Keys radar. Just go to Caribbean radar...

Looks more of a 285/290 heading..

[Blown Away]

Looking at the visible, looks like the center is over Eleuthera!
The NHC position at 11am was @40 miles W of Eleuthera. Movement looks WNW to NW on visible. IMO

[perk]

Stratosphere747 thanks for posting that satelite link.The best i've seen so far.

[wxwatcher91]

Can't wait for recon. It does appear west but that may be wrong??

I think Katrina will always be moving a bit north but at times not by much... I cant really tell... I'm with you though: waiting for recon

...also the models

[djtil]

i think that the models continue to shift east and the westward turn is shorter in duration and she rides up the peninsula with only 1 gulf state landfall (east coast of florida).

a couple models have already come to this conclusion and will continue trending there.

[nequad]

18Z tropical model run all have a NE motion by day 5. LBAR and A98E, have 120 HR position off the GA/SC coast. The Medium BAM is near JAX.

The 12Z UK also recurves quickly and has a day 6 position south of NC.

All these runs are very close to the previos runs of the GFS, and to a lesser extent the GGEM.

That leaves the NGP, GFDL as the outliers.

That's just a quick run down of how I see the model situation. Please note I'm not advocating any particular solution.

[Stormcenter]

18Z tropical model run all have a NE motion by day 5. LBAR and A98E, have 120 HR position off the GA/SC coast. The Medium BAM is near JAX.

The 12Z UK also recurves quickly and has a day 6 position south of NC.

All these runs are very close to the previos runs of the GFS, and to a lesser extent the GGEM.

That leaves the NGP, GFDL as the outliers.

That's just a quick run down of how I see the model situation. Please note I'm not advocating any particular solution.

Man they must be expecting Katrina to slow down big time if we are talking about day 5 and 6.

[M_0331]

NWS MIAMA states more north movement than expected. Track to shift
to right ~.2 -.4N. Disclaimer not for public use, only for S2K members.

EDDIE

[sfwx]

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

[Rainband]

Looks like track may change.

[CaneCurious]

Looks like track may change.

You think the track will shift east? I am just not sold on that. I think they may shift back and forth until they know what that High over TX and LA is going to do. If it stays put then I say more east but if it retreats west like the N.O. mets think it will then the track will be farther west. I definitely don't think that it will go up the peninsula.