Joe Bastardi's forecast on CNBC this morning

[johngaltfla]

Basically he puts the storm just off the West Palm Beach or Broward County areas then moving straight west over Florida. Then rapidly intensifying in the Eastern Gulf up to hurricane strenght, with a NW movement. He admits that the forecast is problematical once the storm is into the GOM.

Ok, flame away gang.

[fci]

No flame here.
Sounds like the NHC forecast to me.

[Deenac813]

I am thinking the storm will come in a little south of the Broward/Palm beach Line.. maybe the Broward/Miami dade Line.

[BamaMan]

Not too far off fro Derek's # 2 Forecast. He has it at 100 Knots in Central GOM. Pretty big flareup in his eyes also

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think Miami as a cat2 Saturday...This is not offical but looking at it this morning that would not be a suprize.

[recmod]

Interesting change of heart there, Matt..just 4 hours ago on another thread, you were downplaying the storm's potential with this comment to someone who made the observation that TD 12 appeared to be organizing:

We have no tropical storm hear not even close. The recon just reported back a whole 21 knots of flight level winds.

What has suddenly changed, in your mind, that you are now predicting a Cat 2 in Miami?

--Lou

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has developed a Central core/Cdo with a well defined LLC. In which is moving over the Gulf stream. Need any more reason. Before hand it was very disorganized with many a center. So what more do you need?

[jlauderdal]

I think Miami as a cat2 Saturday...This is not offical but looking at it this morning that would not be a suprize.

matt,

i am usually bear when it comes to the tropics but i dont think you are out of your mind saying a 2 is possible.

[EDR1222]

Still a TD as of the latest advisory. It has alot of work to do to get to hurricane status. Obviously though, with those warm waters, things could happen fast.

[Nimbus]

The ex 10 thread is locked but if you search back you can view some of the older track models for continuity.

The weakness north of 12 looks like it is filling in so the northern component of motion should decrease soon.

12 could reach Cat1 status before making first landfall in Florida and the length of time over land will effect the later forecast.

This close in the NHC should have a good handle on motion and intensity for the Florida landfall.

Since the storm has been moving so slowly the Friday landfall forecast has good continuity.

To my untrained eye it looks like Katrina may come in a little further south and track around the ridge a little faster than the official forecast but not by much.

The ridge orientation centered over Missisippi has not changed much yet, it looks like 12/katrina will take a lengthy track over warm gulf water.

We will just have to wait to see how quickly katrina redevelops once she moves off the west coast of Florida.

[Trader Ron]

I am thinking the storm will come in a little south of the Broward/Palm beach Line.. maybe the Broward/Miami dade Line.

I said between Boca and Jupiter last evening, still sticking with that landfall.

Strong TS 65-70 MPH..

[Rainband]

The ex 10 thread is locked but if you search back you can view some of the older track models for continuity.

The weakness north of 12 looks like it is filling in so the northern component of motion should decrease soon.

12 could reach Cat1 status before making first landfall in Florida and the length of time over land will effect the later forecast.

This close in the NHC should have a good handle on motion and intensity for the Florida landfall.

Since the storm has been moving so slowly the Friday landfall forecast has good continuity.

To my untrained eye it looks like Katrina may come in a little further south and track around the ridge a little faster than the official forecast but not by much.

The ridge orientation centered over Missisippi has not changed much yet, it looks like 12/katrina will take a lengthy track over warm gulf water.

We will just have to wait to see how quickly katrina redevelops once she moves off the west coast of Florida.

You mean north right?? I think the storm will come in north the way it's moving now.

[Nimbus]

You mean north right?? I think the storm will come in north the way it's moving now.

The apparent motion is a little deceiving the way the convection is filling in.

Looks like a track across the peninsula from Miami to Naples.

[Sanibel]

Bastardi called for a Florida hit from this wave a week ago...

[gkrangers]

Bastardi called for a Florida hit from this wave a week ago...

Me too, whats your point ?

[SunnyFla]

Local news here is looking at a Broward/SPB County landfall at around 8am Friday morning. PB & Martin County are the only ones who have spoken about possible school closings tomorrow (Thursday)--since they must close once winds reach 40mph and they need to get shelters ready.

Donna

[x-y-no]

Bastardi called for a Florida hit from this wave a week ago...

Yeah ... and he also said it was going to intensify big-time as it approached Puerto Rico. How'd that prediction turn out?

[Sanibel]

The point is obvious and shouldn't need to be asked. His reasoning was correct...