TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Amanzi]

I think there is a little dry air that could inhibit some strengthening? But hey what do I know.

[Jim Cantore]

Katrina appears to be gaining a more well defined center looked like its wrapping around a bit now


look at the visible

[InimanaChoogamaga]

I agree. Definitely looking more organized:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[Sanibel]

Are we underplaying this and possibly missing a potential rapid developer?


It could be going further south than I realized.

I think I'm seeing an eye-like center developing...

[bahamaswx]

Poor weather here, though not even a hint of a breeze.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I personally think that She might follow a track like the below storm. Perhaps further East near the end though. I just do not see the NHC track coming true is all:


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Cape Verde]

I don't like the obvious appearances of rapid strengthening. It's not unexpected, but the stronger the system is when it emerges into Gulf waters (if that's what she does) the less it has to increase to become a major hurricane in the Gulf.<P>This storm could really be a problem.<P>And it's not like we need the oil production in the Gulf shut down right now, either.

[gatorcane]

yes, it's trying to wrap and strengthening is underway...and it slowing down and it's starting to take the bend towards the WNW now.

[ALhurricane]

I personally think that She might follow a track like the below storm. Perhaps further East near the end though. I just do not see the NHC track coming true is all:


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Hybridstorm_November2001

That sort of track is virtually impossible with the upper ridge building to its north.

[wxwatcher91]

Are we underplaying this and possibly missing a potential rapid developer?


It could be going further south than I realized.

I think I'm seeing an eye-like center developing...

sorry they are dry-slots... there are two actually...

[gkrangers]

2PM advisory says 45MPH and 1003mb.

the 2PM TWD says 45 KNOTS and 1001mb.

Who to believe..?

[gkrangers]

2PM advisory says 45MPH and 1003mb.

the 2PM TWD says 45 KNOTS and 1001mb.

Who to believe..?

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure if the actual LLC is further west than the visible indicates. TWC cone centers on Ft Lauderdale.

Eye sharpening now...

[wxwatcher91]

something is happening... I have no idea what it is but Katrina is doing something lol...

[mahicks]

I personally think that She might follow a track like the below storm. Perhaps further East near the end though. I just do not see the NHC track coming true is all:


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Hybridstorm_November2001

That sort of track is virtually impossible with the upper ridge building to its north.

My wife was a Jaguar..She saw your avitar and said "he's a weather guy" whats he say?"

What are you thoughts?

[clfenwi]

205 PM TWD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM KATRINA AT
24/1800 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS NEAR
25.2N 77.0W OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU
IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 200 MILES/320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NORTH
OF 23N...SPECIFICALLY FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

umm... ...yeah... between this and the discrepancy by gkrangers... this discussion is hosed...

[dwg71]

It has really picked up speed and seems to be outrunning its convection. This should prevent it from becoming a hurricane before initial landfall. IMO

[Andrew92]

205 PM TWD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM KATRINA AT
24/1800 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS NEAR
25.2N 77.0W OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU
IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 200 MILES/320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NORTH
OF 23N...SPECIFICALLY FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

umm...

That's a slight misprint.... last I checked it's moving NNW at 8 mph.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050824 1800 050825 0600 050825 1800 050826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 77.0W 25.8N 78.1W 26.1N 79.0W 26.0N 80.0W
BAMM 25.2N 77.0W 26.1N 77.9W 26.5N 78.6W 26.6N 79.5W
A98E 25.2N 77.0W 26.2N 77.7W 26.5N 78.5W 26.4N 78.8W
LBAR 25.2N 77.0W 26.1N 77.7W 26.9N 78.2W 27.2N 78.3W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 62KTS 71KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 62KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050826 1800 050827 1800 050828 1800 050829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 81.0W 25.7N 82.9W 26.6N 84.1W 28.8N 83.1W
BAMM 26.6N 80.4W 27.1N 82.3W 28.2N 83.4W 30.4N 81.7W
A98E 26.2N 79.3W 27.2N 80.9W 28.8N 82.3W 31.7N 80.3W
LBAR 27.3N 78.4W 28.6N 79.0W 30.6N 80.0W 33.2N 78.8W
SHIP 78KTS 84KTS 87KTS 87KTS
DSHP 53KTS 42KTS 44KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 77.0W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 76.2W DIRM12 = 329DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 75.2W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 55NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Models.

[ALhurricane]

205 PM TWD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM KATRINA AT
24/1800 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS NEAR
25.2N 77.0W OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU
IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 200 MILES/320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NORTH
OF 23N...SPECIFICALLY FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

umm...

That's a slight misprint.... last I checked it's moving NNW at 8 mph.

-Andrew92

Ahhh....what are a couple of errors between friends!

The writer obviously forgot to proofread before hitting send. As always, refer to the specific storm related products issued by NHC.