So are gonna see a n shift?

[DESTRUCTION5]

A turn toward the northwest or west-northwest at a
slightly slower forward speed is expected to occur tonight or early
Thursday. This motion will bring the center through the central
Bahamas today and the northwest Bahamas tonight and Thursday.


Umm last I checked the N Bahamas were Due east of Jupiter..

[tallbunch]

That is why I was thinking a more N Fl hit

[Rainband]

I am sticking to my Erin Prediction Maybe a tad south

[Trader Ron]

Yesterday, I said between Boca and Jupiter. I'm thinking closer to Jupiter as of now.

[mascpa]

Yesterday, I said between Boca and Jupiter. I'm thinking closer to Jupiter as of now.

Thanks a lot, Ron! Hope you're wrong!

[djtil]

not so much in the short term....but a huge north (and east) shift in the late term will begin to take shape at the 5pm advisory.

katrina will not see the gulf of mexico.

[baitism]

not so much in the short term....but a huge north (and east) shift in the late term will begin to take shape at the 5pm advisory.

katrina will not see the gulf of mexico.

Why because of the models? They flip-flop worse then politicians...

[cflweather]

How far North do you think the effects would be felt if it stays on it's current path and to what extent, seeing how usually the NE side is the worst.

Thanks

[Frank2]

Hard to say now - the visible loop makes it seem like it's tilted more towards the west, however, the radar loop and satellite seem to indicate that Katrina is not yet well organized, with a very broad circulation center.

The IR loop indicates that the tops have warmed over the past several hours, so hopefully it will be more of a rain event - in fact, Broward is only less than an hour or so from receiving the first rain squalls, so, the timing might be earlier than expected.

We'll see if the next advisory mentions this...

Frank

[FlSteel]

I don't see this shift too the east yet and not making it back into the gulf. I think it's too early to tell what shape the ridge is in and what the effects of a trough coming down to erode the ridge enough to turn this thing more north earlier. Right now it seems like it is beginning to start it's more westward or WNW bend. Even Steve Lyons just mentioned that on TWC.
I'm sticking with a landfall around the Juno Beach area north to ST. Lucie.

[Stormcenter]

Yes they did shift it east.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Scorpion]

More east= more time over water to strengthen.

[shaggy]

maybe the GFS is on the something with it stalling over the pennisula before racing off to the NE and out to sea.it just might be that it never re-enters the gulf and makes a 2nd landfall!

[NastyCat4]

Total nonsense---look at the Miami radar loop, and you can see it moving WEST--right at Fort Lauderdale. Models are out to lunch--at this point, forecast via visible, not via a computer.

[Rainband]

Total nonsense---look at the Miami radar loop, and you can see it moving WEST--right at Fort Lauderdale. Models are out to lunch--at this point, forecast via visible, not via a computer.

I Think the NHC may know what they are doing.

[dwg71]

Total nonsense---look at the Miami radar loop, and you can see it moving WEST--right at Fort Lauderdale. Models are out to lunch--at this point, forecast via visible, not via a computer.

I Think the NHC may know what they are doing.

Also, it appears that convection is banding around the opening in the center of the storm (I just cant bring myself to say eye), that would be another bump north. The center earlier was 35 miles south of Abaco Islands, if that is indeed what is happening then its now over the south end of that island.

I do believe it will hit further up the coast.. 50 miles north of WPB.