TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It has really picked up speed and seems to be outrunning its convection. This should prevent it from becoming a hurricane before initial landfall. IMO

Are you basing that opinion on the 2:05 TWD? Because that alone might explain why I disagree with you. I doesn't appear to be picking up much speed to my eye. Also, I don't see the center outrunning the convection whatsoever. I do, however, see it getting better organized and concentrated.

While sure, it's tough to tell if it becomes a hurricane or not, I think it has a fairly good chance of reaching that intensity before the first landfall.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

I have noticed that the news stations here in South Florida are concentrated into TS Katrina and no one has mentioned that today is the 13th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.

[dwg71]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It has really picked up speed and seems to be outrunning its convection. This should prevent it from becoming a hurricane before initial landfall. IMO

Are you basing that opinion on the 2:05 TWD? Because that alone might explain why I disagree with you. I doesn't appear to be picking up much speed to my eye. Also, I don't see the center outrunning the convection whatsoever. I do, however, see it getting better organized and concentrated.

While sure, it's tough to tell if it becomes a hurricane or not, I think it has a fairly good chance of reaching that intensity before the first landfall.

-Andrew92

No, I hadnt even read that when I said it was picking up speed, I'm basing that on sats and the fact that NHC had it in this spot tomorrow AM, not right now. The convection to the east of center has was really intense this morning, and it has not moved since and the cloud tops have warmed.

NHC had it on shore at 8AM Friday, at this rate it would be 18 hours sooner than that, approximately this time tomorrow.

As far as "first landfall" models are trending towards just one FL landfall, and no reentry into the gulf or just a brief one.

[dwg71]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It has really picked up speed and seems to be outrunning its convection. This should prevent it from becoming a hurricane before initial landfall. IMO

Are you basing that opinion on the 2:05 TWD? Because that alone might explain why I disagree with you. I doesn't appear to be picking up much speed to my eye. Also, I don't see the center outrunning the convection whatsoever. I do, however, see it getting better organized and concentrated.

While sure, it's tough to tell if it becomes a hurricane or not, I think it has a fairly good chance of reaching that intensity before the first landfall.

-Andrew92

No, I hadnt even read that when I said it was picking up speed, I'm basing that on sats and the fact that NHC had it in this spot tomorrow AM, not right now. The convection to the east of center has was really intense this morning, and it has not moved since and the cloud tops have warmed.

NHC had it on shore at 8AM Friday, at this rate it would be 18 hours sooner than that, approximately this time tomorrow.

As far as "first landfall" models are trending towards just one FL landfall, and no reentry into the gulf or just a brief one.

[Andrew92]

Y'know something, my pick for the best analog for Katrina is Erin of 1995 trackwise. But here's what creeps me out a bit:

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... avhrr2.gif

Doesn't Katrina look almost EXACTLY like Erin as well?!

And Dwg71, I know you're trying to agree with the models, but I'm finding it easier to agree with the NHC, Derek, and other pros at this time that it will likely make a second landfall. I'm seeing that the models you're going with are the BAM models, which are less dynamic than some of the global models that I think the pros are making their forecasts from.

-Andrew92

[dwg71]

NHC, Ortt and others didn't have this info at the time of last forecast. NHC track will continue its eastward shift at 5PM, imo.

[Andrew92]

Alright, actually maybe it will turn right sooner that the globals had expected. But I still think Katrina has a good shot of becoming a hurricane before landfall.

-Andrew92

[storms in NC]

NHC, Ortt and others didn't have this info at the time of last forecast. NHC track will continue its eastward shift at 5PM, imo.

So you saying farther north up the coast of Fla and not into the GOM?

[Rainband]

NHC, Ortt and others didn't have this info at the time of last forecast. NHC track will continue its eastward shift at 5PM, imo.

So you saying farther north up the coast of Fla and not into the GOM?

No looks like it will still cross florida but not go that far west into the GOM. Thats what the models are showing right now.

[dwg71]

NHC, Ortt and others didn't have this info at the time of last forecast. NHC track will continue its eastward shift at 5PM, imo.

So you saying farther north up the coast of Fla and not into the GOM?

My initial forecast was WPB (50MPH) up to Tampa and to dissapate. I'll stick with that for the sake of not changing my prediction.

If I were going to issue a forecast, I would move it slightly up the coast, 50 miles or so. But, I'll go out on a limb and say no reemergence in the Gulf.

[gkrangers]

The globals are far better than the tropical models...way too much stock is put in them.

[Brent]

I'm thinking maybe a Frances like track now... where it just barely gets into the Gulf.

[Rainband]

I'm thinking maybe a Frances like track now... where it just barely gets into the Gulf.

Thats a fair bet. Either way if the models continue to shift it's gonna be a long interesting weekend.

[Sanibel]

Storm looks like hurricane with fast moving inflow. However center has become slightly drier.

Should increase in strength as it approaches Florida. Symmetry is good...

[dwg71]

My best guess as to center is the southern tip of the Abaco Islands. To save you a trip to the map for those (like myself) who are not familiar, its the one next to Grand Bahama that looks like a comma.

[jpigott]

looks like the cloud tops have warmed some (doubt that will last long) but it seems the overall symmetry of the system has improved. Anyone (mets or amatuers) have any opinions with regard to current intensity trends

[Air Force Met]

My best guess as to center is the southern tip of the Abaco Islands. To save you a trip to the map for those (like myself) who are not familiar, its the one next to Grand Bahama that looks like a comma.

Recon and radar fix it south of there...by about 35 miles.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[no advance]

Ive looked at the recon report looks at most a 50mph tropical storm. But I look at vis. satelite looks like a large eye is forming. Can anyone set me straight what is going on here. Go Merritt Is. Mustangs

[clfenwi]

Recon is looking like a repeat of the previous mission... highest flight level winds (43 knots)fairly well removed from the center...just started its northeast quadrant pass... looking at the satellite imagery, I don't think it will find anything much higher on that pass...

[dwg71]

My best guess as to center is the southern tip of the Abaco Islands. To save you a trip to the map for those (like myself) who are not familiar, its the one next to Grand Bahama that looks like a comma.

Recon and radar fix it south of there...by about 35 miles.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

Thanks, what's 35 miles amongst friends.