NHC now hinting Katrina may Bomb-out

[lwg8tr]

After reading the NHC discussion at 5pm more than once it was mentioned some of the models indicate by more than a 50% chance that "Rapid intesification" may occur. What does that mean. A Charley-esque Cat 4 by tommorrow at 5pm? I'm afraid in WPB we may be caught flatfooted.

[Josephine96]

LW.. I actually just mentioned in my forecast thread that I think Katrina could rapid intensify as well.. we'll see

[jkt21787]

After reading the NHC discussion at 5pm more than once it was mentioned some of the models indicate by more than a 50% chance that "Rapid intesification" may occur. What does that mean. A Charley-esque Cat 4 by tommorrow at 5pm? I'm afraid in WPB we may be caught flatfooted.

Keep in mind Charley went from a 2/3 into a 4 during its rapid intensification. We are dealing with a TS, and a weak one at that.

Rapid intensification could lead to a ~100 mph hurricane, but a major landfall seems unlikely at this time.

[lwg8tr]

After reading the NHC discussion at 5pm more than once it was mentioned some of the models indicate by more than a 50% chance that "Rapid intesification" may occur. What does that mean. A Charley-esque Cat 4 by tommorrow at 5pm? I'm afraid in WPB we may be caught flatfooted.

Keep in mind Charley went from a 2/3 into a 4 during its rapid intensification. We are dealing with a TS, and a weak one at that.

Rapid intensification could lead to a ~100 mph hurricane, but a major landfall seems unlikely at this time.

I hope your right, I lived through Frances and Jeanne in Jupiter. 15k in damage. And I think our highest gust was 100mph with Jeanne. I could'nt imagine a sustained wind of 100mph. My 380k wood frame could'nt stand it.

[JTD]

The critical question at this point is the dry air:

Does it nix out the dry air in 12 hours or does the dry air inhibit it all the way up to landfall?

If the dry air is starting to be nixed out by the time we go to bed tonight (if one is going to bed tonight), there could be some strengthening for sure.

Hopefully, the dry air is persistent.

Does anyone have any thoughts on whether Katrina will be able to nix out the dry air? Is it likely or unlikely?

[gatorcane]

I think it will mix out about the time it approaches the Gulf stream...

[shaggy]

i am not sure they hint that rapid intensification is likely but that they do say it is in fact a real possibilty.They never say they believe it WILL happen but that they are watching closely.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Look at all the pretty colors.