NHC Is Acting Strange

[tropicstorm]

First of all, it's 5:40 pm EDT and the NHC has not yet posted their 5 pm Discussion.

What's interesting is that the NHC has posted more northerly watches in their 5 pm Katrina Forecast / Advisory - "A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE....INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND"

But apparently, the NHC official projected track has not deviated from this expected westerly turn across south Florida just north of Miami.

Are they playing both sides and covering their bases? If not, why the more northerly watches to Merritt Island?

[gatorcane]

5pm discussion posted on time ... check cycloneye's thread

[tropicstorm]

It has not yet been posted on the NHC website

[gatorcane]

yes it has. refresh your browser

press CTRL-R and the refresh button on your browser.

[Jevo]

conspiracy theory....... (dramatic music queue)

[spinfan4eva]

With this system forecasted to landfall near where Jeanne and Frances did, it sounds to me like the TPC is not acting strange at all. The entire Florida east coast and portions of the Ga Coast were under some kind of watch/warning at some point with these storms. True that this is no Frances or Jean but being its only a TS watch, conditions may deteriorate later up the coast as far N as Titusville. Below are the watches/warnings for Fla just before Frances made landfall.

HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE NEARS FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

[nequad]

If Katrina is a hurricane at the time of landfall along the projected path...then TS force winds would likely be felt well north of the center due to the pressure gradient between Katrina and the high to the north over the Mid-Atlantic. I think that is the best reason for the northward expansion of the watches/warnings. Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

[SapphireSea]

Yes pressure gradient winds were probobly overlooked for that area until now, especially if it deepens any more.

[BUD]

With this system forecasted to landfall near where Jeanne and Frances did, it sounds to me like the TPC is not acting strange at all. The entire Florida east coast and portions of the Ga Coast were under some kind of watch/warning at some point with these storms. True that this is no Frances or Jean but being its only a TS watch, conditions may deteriorate later up the coast as far N as Titusville. Below are the watches/warnings for Fla just before Frances made landfall.

HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE NEARS FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

Your right and the NHC said "if" the center is further north then the track will be changed.

[NastyCat4]

The center is NOT further North--please look at the Miami radar loop--it is exactly as anticipated, and is in the Broward area---this storm is coming in in the greater Lauderdale area. Also, I'd bet on an earlier landfall, as the center (without a discernable eye, but clear circulation) is evident over the Bahamas, and quite near land--probably 75 miles or so.