Hurricane Katrina

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 242100
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. BANDING
FEATURES HAVE INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED AND REMAINS QUITE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF RECON WIND...38 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...AND PRESSURE DATA...1002 MB OR ROUGHLY 43 KT...AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE
INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE TO SOUTHWEST OF THE 1949Z
RECON POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER-SCALE
CIRCULATION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ZERO-ISODOP PATTERN NOTED
IN THE NOAA/NWS MIAMI DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE CENTER POSITION. I HAVE TRIED TO
BLEND THE POSITIONS FROM RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST
RECON POSITION CAN BE SEEN AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING OUT
FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THAT VORTEX MAY END UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IF
IT TURNS OUT THAT THE CENTER DOES END UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
...THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA TO KEEP BUILDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WHICH ULTIMATELY FORCES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN 36-48 HOURS...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE AND WHEN KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. THE GFDN IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO
NEW ORLEANS...WHEREAS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST MODELS AND TAKE KATRINA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A
NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH
LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO
111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH
SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

OWING TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 25.6N 77.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 25.9N 77.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 26.1N 78.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 79.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 80.7W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.4N 83.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W 65 KT...INLAND

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it has turned to the west............

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

[mahicks]

yup, sure does....I guess we'll see if the rest of the discusion verifies...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

AT 8 PM...0000 EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING
ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...NORTH OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 270
KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Recurve]

In case anybody's still unsure about the Florida Straits thing:

I live in the Keys, and according to what I've heard for 20 years, and what's printed on my NOAA charts, and what's said on NOAA weather broadcasts...the Strait of Florida (Florida Straits) is the water between the Keys and Miami on the west and the Bahamas on the east, AND between Key West and Cuba.

As another post pointed out, it's where the Florida Current flows, BEFORE it joins the Gulf Stream...so all that talk about the water along the Keys being the Gulf Stream is actually, in a very technical sense, incorrect. But everybody here does refer to fishing in the Gulfstream when they are fishing off the Keys.

Yeah, I get called smarty pants a lot.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KATRINA IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAN BAHAMA ISLAND JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

Double.

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

THE 2300Z RECONNAISSANCE FIX AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND THE
BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE KATRINA TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...BRINGS
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. BEYOND THREE DAYS...WHEN KATRINA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...SUGGESTING TRACKS WHICH COVER THE COAST FROM
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KATRINA NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
TROUGH...ON A TRACK WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A BETTER RADAR PRESENTATION. LATEST
RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 2300 UTC DID NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND
THE PRESSURE WAS NOT DROPPING. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AND MAKES KATRINA A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SINCE THERE IS LOW SHEAR
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG KATRINA'S PATH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BUT KATRINA COULD
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED.

BECAUSE IT IS FORECAST THAT KATRINA BECOMES A HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.0N 78.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 78.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 26.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND

[Patrick99]

I'm here looking at the Eastern US water vapor loop....if I'm not mistaken, isn't that a ridge trying to move over Katrina as the EC trough moves out....wouldn't that push down on it a bit? I think this is what the GFDL is attempting to sniff out....I don't know if it will actually happen.

[Brent]

WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

If I was in Southeast Florida... that would be very disconcerting. Using the word "outstanding" for a computer model that is predicting an extreme hurricane for a place not prepared is not good...

[Ixolib]

WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

If I was in Southeast Florida... that would be very disconcerting. Using the word "outstanding" for a computer model that is predicted an extreme hurricane for a place not prepared is not good...

Perhaps they meant "OUTLIER"(sp)??

[jkt21787]

WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

If I was in Southeast Florida... that would be very disconcerting. Using the word "outstanding" for a computer model that is predicted an extreme hurricane for a place not prepared is not good...

Perhaps they meant "OUTLIER"(sp)??

He meant outstanding. Believe me...

[Ixolib]

He meant outstanding. Believe me...

I believe 'ya!! So, then, by outstanding, do they mean that it's the BEST model. Or, is there some other meaning I should conclude?

[Brent]

The "good performance of this model" is what's worse...

[HURAKAN]

I think the ones most surprised are the creators of GFDL.

[jkt21787]

He meant outstanding. Believe me...

I believe 'ya!! So, then, by outstanding, do they mean that it's the BEST model. Or, is there some other meaning I should conclude?

Well two things:

Avila lives off the GFDL. Its "his" model, if you will. So I think there is some bias in his statement.
However, GFDL hasn't really been that bad this year, so it just shouldn't be immediately dismissed, and should be monitored with every run as Avila said.

[Ixolib]

He meant outstanding. Believe me...

I believe 'ya!! So, then, by outstanding, do they mean that it's the BEST model. Or, is there some other meaning I should conclude?

Well two things:

Avila lives off the GFDL. Its "his" model, if you will. So I think there is some bias in his statement.
However, GFDL hasn't really been that bad this year, so it just shouldn't be immediately dismissed, and should be monitored with every run as Avila said.

Thanks - interesting info on our buddy Avila!!

[FritzPaul]

Wow! That's the longest and most detailed Discussion I've ever seen from Avila.

He must be "jealous" of the fine comments Stewart gets for his discussions.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE
WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ENROUTE TO KATRINA HAS HAD TO ABORT DUE TO
COMPUTER PROBLEMS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[senorpepr]

560
WTNT32 KNHC 250830
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...CENTER OF KATRINA PASSING SOUTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES... 35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...
AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT
POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
36 MPH AND A GUST TO 40 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$