Uh Oh.....we got a Deep Red CDO

[logybogy]

[Scorpion]

Damn.. this is getting bad.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, I noticed that and it is almost on top of the center, not a good sign.

If Katrina deepens rapidly the intensity and track of the GFDL may just verify.

[sponger]

Wow!

[ohiostorm]

Yeah center is away from the Bahamas now and over very warm waters. Its time for it to explode. Lets hope it doesnt.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My prayers go out to all in S. FL in the path of this storm:

IMO this thing is going to bomb explosively. I do not HOPE for
such an event, but it seems likely. Look at the near
perfect conditions. Also consider hyperstorm's ULL analysis and
comparison to historical precedents.

[SapphireSea]

Im gonna stay conservative personally on it. However, it also has the nocturnal window on it's side as well. We will be seeing alot of strong convection from this, but whether it organizes further (create a solid center/eye) will be the determining factor of the deepening.

[Scorpion]

Winds already starting to dramatically increase. 58 mph FL winds now.

[Foladar]

Yea, I noticed that and it is almost on top of the center, not a good sign.

If Katrina deepens rapidly the intensity and track of the GFDL may just verify.

Which part of the GFDL? The one I'm seeing shows it dipping down near the Keys first, which doesn't seem too likely.

[gkrangers]

Winds already starting to dramatically increase. 58 mph FL winds now.

We saw winds near that 2AM this morning.

[logybogy]

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT RAGGED EYEWALL

Latest recon says it has a ragged eyewall.

[ohiostorm]

Yeah it has plenty of time and favorable conditions to bomb.

[gkrangers]

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT RAGGED EYEWALL

Latest recon says it has a ragged eyewall.

You can see it on the Miami radar.

[shaggy]

not sure i would call that a CDO persay.Until it persist for 12 hours or more then it might be cdo but maybe this will die as the storms did today when the dry air got pulled in.Also if this blob dies off does that mean its weakening?Reason i ask is that every flare up means strengthening but when a flare up dies out then its just a phase.

[jkt21787]

The IR image above plus the report of a ragged eyewall is a clear indicator that a strenghtening phase has begun. Too soon probably to call it rapid or "bombing out" but pressure reports from recon will become vital over the next few hours.

[Scorpion]

Its got an eyewall. Just a matter of time now. I was giving this a 25% chance of developing a good inner core but now its significantly higher.

[gkrangers]

The IR image above plus the report of a ragged eyewall is a clear indicator that a strenghtening phase has begun. Too soon probably to call it rapid or "bombing out" but pressure reports from recon will become vital over the next few hours.

I would expect some strengthening between now and the 11PM advisory. How much...I dunna..but it does seem to be establishing a core, so steady intensification seems possible/likely tonight.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, I noticed that and it is almost on top of the center, not a good sign.

If Katrina deepens rapidly the intensity and track of the GFDL may just verify.

Which part of the GFDL? The one I'm seeing shows it dipping down near the Keys first, which doesn't seem too likely.

That is the one I'm talking about, but the dip down is not out of the question although it may now take place further north. Alot of times a rapidly deepening system reacts to ridging as it moves against it and causes it to react as the GFDL depicted, a ridge is not a smooth line, thus the wobbles we often see a hurricane make.

[FlSteel]

deleted. Cant seem to post the link.

[Foladar]

8pm advisory says .. 45 mph still