TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Scorpion]

Gee, just in time huh. Could explode if it stalls.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is already starting to do so. With the development of a cdo near the center.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have a question about the lastest track forecast on Katrina once she enters the Gulf. What is the current thinking of the models and NHC to have her turn north so much quicker than yesterday.? If someone could go inot detail about the 3-5 day forecast reasoning I would really appreciate it. Also is there a chance the models could shift furhter west again with time as more data becomes available? Sorry if this has been answered already but I just got home and don't have internet use at work.

[Dean4Storms]

Its moving more west now

It appears to me to be moving more westerly in the last few hours, but we will have to give it another few hours to see if it verifies.

[FlSteel]

I don't think I would go as far as saying that Kat is bombing just yet, but it does look like from IR and the last visibles that she is getting her inner core together and that she has spun out that dry air she had earlier.

[Dean4Storms]

I have a question about the lastest track forecast on Katrina once she enters the Gulf. What is the current thinking of the models and NHC to have her turn north so much quicker than yesterday.? If someone could go inot detail about the 3-5 day forecast reasoning I would really appreciate it. Also is there a chance the models could shift furhter west again with time as more data becomes available? Sorry if this has been answered already but I just got home and don't have internet use at work.

Really the track out in the Gulf is more of a average of all the model consensus. The furthest I've seen west recently is the Euro near AL/MS with the majority well east either in the Panhadle or running up the west coast of Florida. I don't personally see much of a chance of Katrina being driven westward all the way to LA by the ridge forecasted to steer her westward across FL, it is forecasted to move off to the east and weaken over the SE CONUS.

[Cape Verde]

What is the current thinking of the models and NHC to have her turn north so much quicker than yesterday.? ...Also is there a chance the models could shift furhter west again with time as more data becomes available?

<P>It's been asked but not answered on this thread so far.<P>But in reading the 5pm discussion, they really don't know where it will go in the Gulf and they just kind of split the difference in the models.<P>Too much has to happen between now and the time it enters the Gulf for there to be any certainty in the long range forecast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Dean4Storms. I appreciate it. One thing you said is that the high will move east and weaken. The forecast for SE LA says it will move west. Any thoughts on that?

[jujubean]

ok have an amatuer question here....channel 4 just said that katrina should slow down until the high starts steering it w or wnw....now I'm not expecting more than a lot of rain here, but if that is the case will this storm have time to strengthen considerably before making landfall?

[MortisFL]

GFDL continues to take it south of FL and hooks it around into the gulf to the panhandle as a much stronger system.

I dont think its right as Katrina would have to move southwest

[SapphireSea]

The possibilty exists for considerable intensification. I believe that the high is starting its slow influence on the storm judging on the 8PM advisory.

[Recurve]

Norcross is on: "It's going west now" -- heading more certainly for some part of South Florida, not farther north. It's even with Dade County-Broward County line, about 26, and sounds to be going closer to 270 than it was...

Trying to listen and type....


"We see spiral bands starting to develop...it's a weak storm at this point," but it looks like it's starting to strengthen

[SapphireSea]

Looks to me a wobbly 270, would avarage at 275.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks to me a wobbly 270, would avarage at 275.

I would agree with that.

<RICKY>

[FlSteel]

Steve Lyons on TWC just said it's now moving W at 8mph

[storms in NC]

Steve Lyons on TWC just said it's now moving W at 8mph

Not what the NHC just said.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

[wxman57]

I can see the center clearly on radar using GARP. From 23Z-00Z, it moved 13.8 nautical miles toward 285.3 degrees. Center is pretty close to that NHC 00Z position of 26N/77.6W. Maybe a hair north of 26N at 0005Z.

[Foladar]

Steve Lyons on TWC just said it's now moving W at 8mph

Local news put west on the graphic but mentioned what the NHC said (between west and westnorthwest)

[LAwxrgal]

I have a question about the lastest track forecast on Katrina once she enters the Gulf. What is the current thinking of the models and NHC to have her turn north so much quicker than yesterday.? If someone could go inot detail about the 3-5 day forecast reasoning I would really appreciate it. Also is there a chance the models could shift furhter west again with time as more data becomes available? Sorry if this has been answered already but I just got home and don't have internet use at work.

Really the track out in the Gulf is more of a average of all the model consensus. The furthest I've seen west recently is the Euro near AL/MS with the majority well east either in the Panhadle or running up the west coast of Florida. I don't personally see much of a chance of Katrina being driven westward all the way to LA by the ridge forecasted to steer her westward across FL, it is forecasted to move off to the east and weaken over the SE CONUS.

Hi Dean (or anybody) -- one more question. My local meteorologist mentioned a trough coming down on Sunday. Will it be strong enough to turn Katrina as fast and as sharply as the NHC's current track is indicating? Thanks.

[jujubean]

yeah, I think norcross is getting excited now.... he was blinking like crazy during his last forcast gotta like the guy though he was a godsend during andrew oh and speaking of that r.i.p. for those who perished this day 13 years ago.