Disturbing Scenario

[Foladar]

Foladar... it is 50 mph right now, and if it deepens enough it can surely get to hurricane status maybe not 11 PM, but perhaps 2 AM.

2am would be considered tomm, but NHC says it's 45mph, I'll be sure to ring Max and tell him he's wrong.

[Scorpion]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

[Hyperstorm]

Latest burst should bring it below 1000.

88*...

[gkrangers]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

When you make bold predictions, expect to take some flak.

[SapphireSea]

NHC is being conservative on increasing the strength based on a 55 kt wind, which was probobly isolated, in any case, it would be foolish to say that it increased strength in a intermediate update, especially only 5 MPH. They want to wait for some more development and go to about 60 MPH @ 23:00.

That's my guess anyways.

[southerngale]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

Well, that's uncalled for.

He's telling you it's 45mph because it is 45mph.

[jkt21787]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

Well, that's uncalled for.

He's telling you it's 45mph because it is 45mph.

Chances are it won't be a hurricane in 3 hours. Maybe overnight or tomorrow, but in 3 hours is highly unlikely.

Agreed, that was uncalled form especially since his info was fact.

Since recon was just in and didn't find anything stronger, they kept the status quo. If the current organization/convective burst continues, they'll be back in a few hours and see a stonger Katrina, and make adjustments then.

[Brent]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

You are hardly credible after what you said during Emily... Remember??? Declaring it dead while it was a Cat 4 bearing down on the Yucatan.

I'll take the NHC. Thank you.

[hicksta]

[jkt21787]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

You are hardly credible after what you said during Emily... Remember??? Declaring it dead while it was a Cat 4 bearing down on the Yucatan.

I'll take the NHC. Thank you.

I wasn't going to bring that up but thanks anyway!

[Foladar]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

Not at all, I'm sorry that I don't wish hurricanes/tropical storms upon myself like someone else (erm, you) .. If you want to go ahead and say a hurricane will come before NHC says, tonight, and somehow it would gain 29 mph, your spreading false information, thus someone is going to call you out on it. Don't spread rumors if you don't want to be called out. I could care less where it goes, whether it go to New Mexico or New York.

Edit: Glad I'm not the only one who sees somehow this tropical storm isn't a 50mph storm when the NHC says 45mph Some people ...

And by the way, whether it has a closed eyewall or deep convection, that's just potentional, nothing is guarenteed.

[aprilflower]

The present state of Katrina shows a very disturbing scenario. Cold cloudtops are forming around the center, and the winds are beginning to increase. IMO we could see a hurricane at 11. It is also starting to look like it is picking up speed. School is still in session tomorrow as well, even though it looks like Palm Beach County will be the landfall location.

Schools here in St Lucie County have been cancelled for Friday, and *so far* have only been shortened for tomorrow (early release, 2 hours ahead of regular release times).

[Scorpion]

The NHC did say that if it developed a good core that it would be significantly stronger than forecast at landfall. So lets see....

[NastyCat4]

I wouldn't assume Palm Beach landfall--right now, it seems to be trending West, and if it does the "South of West" dip, it would be a Broward landfall, or possibly even a North Dade issue. As to intensity, let's wait and see, before being adamant. The NHC has a good handle on intensity as a minimal 'cane at landfall---don't let an infared make you think the storm is "busting out" at the max--ain't necessarily so. Figure it to be a Cat 1 in the Fort Lauderdale area, and you won't be too far off.

[Brent]

If it moves due west... 26.0 N is the Dade/Broward County line... so I wouldn't let my guard down yet.

[Foladar]

The NHC did say that if it developed a good core that it would be significantly stronger than forecast at landfall. So lets see....

Again, thats potential, not facts or guarentees.

[Scorpion]

Potential... it has a core right now. That already makes it likely it will hit stronger than forecasted. The NHC will likely upgrade the intensity forecast at 11.

[Brent]

Well Foladar, it has a closed eyewall as well as deep convection over the center. Pressure will drop faster soon. A little mad that you aren't going to get any action from this maybe?

Not at all, I'm sorry that I don't wish hurricanes/tropical storms upon myself like someone else (erm, you) .. If you want to go ahead and say a hurricane will come before NHC says, tonight, and somehow it would gain 29 mph, your spreading false information, thus someone is going to call you out on it. Don't spread rumors if you don't want to be called out. I could care less where it goes, whether it go to New Mexico or New York.

Edit: Glad I'm not the only one who sees somehow this tropical storm isn't a 50mph storm when the NHC says 45mph Some people ...

And by the way, whether it has a closed eyewall or deep convection, that's just potentional, nothing is guarenteed.

[Foladar]

Potential... it has a core right now. That already makes it likely it will hit stronger than forecasted. The NHC will likely upgrade the intensity forecast at 11.

Those are your key words, it MAY or MAY NOT happen.

[gkrangers]

Potential... it has a core right now. That already makes it likely it will hit stronger than forecasted. The NHC will likely upgrade the intensity forecast at 11.

Why? 70 knots landfall is reasonable.