Katrina forecast #2: 1st landfall call.. North of West Palm

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
520 PM WED AUG 24TH 2005

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Katrina continues to swirl through the Bahamian Island chain this afternoon as she gets ready to possibly make a double strike on the state of Florida. Max winds are currently around 45 mph.

Katrina is showing signs of strengthening and continues to slowly become better organized. With Katrina also not across the Gulf Stream yet, this could cause her to bomb and become a much stronger TS to potentially a minimal hurricane by landfall.

Watches and warnings are in effect from about the Keys all the way up to the Space Coast tonight, and some of those TS watches will likely become hurricane watches by tonight. This could cause local EOC's to also make the decision whether or not to evac coastal communities.

Katrina {barring a huge strength change} will mostly be a rain event for most and beach erosion for the coast. Her winds are not that strong, YET but when a 45 mph wind persists, it can cause minor damage to anything not tied down.

My forecast for Katrina has her making landfall somewhere just north of West Palm, then trekking across the peninsula erratically in a West or WNW course. This could cause a lot of rain and maybe some minor wind damage for the inland counties.

Severe weather may also occur inland, especially on Katrina's North or North East sides. Be wary of that potential.

Here's my projected 5 day forecast on Katrina:
Tonight: Strengthening, watching closely on the coast. Max winds: 50 mph
Thursday: Approaching Central/South Florida. Nearing hurricane force. Max Winds: 70 mph
Friday: Becoming a hurricane early Friday morning. Landfall near Jupiter Inlent. Max winds: 80 mph
Saturday: Into the GOM. Max Winds: 50 mph
Sunday: Possibly beginning to go poleward, West Central Fla watching a potential trough. Max Winds: 65 mph

[Jevo]

I think your forecast was very well written and I commend you on the format. Although I did not find any synoptic data to back your forecast

[Josephine96]

Thank you for the accolades Jevo..

I base the landfall spot on the erratic movement the storm has had. It's not moving too terribly fast right now..

[NastyCat4]

Good forecast, although I disagree on the landfall place, based on Miami radar, and the apparent West trend= more like Broward to me. I'd go for North Fort Lauderdale-Pompano area as a good candidate for a Cat 1 landfall. NOTE--This is the opinion of an amateur, and in no way official. Please consult the NHC for official information.

[WeatherEmperor]

I agree mostly with this opinion...however if you look at some Radars now, she's moving almost due west right now so...I'm predicting a landfall, just north of the Fort Lauderdale Area right now and trekking W to WNW through the Naples/Fort Myers area...no i'm not -removed-...look at the models lol.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

That seems feasable.

<RICKY>