Uh Oh.....we got a Deep Red CDO

[tallywx]

Here's your ragged eye...care of Bahamas radar.

She's comin' together.

[Eyes2theSkies]

And we are off to the races...this thing better get inland quick!

[Foladar]

well supposely it is suppose to slow forward speed as it makes (possibly currently in the process) the turn west

[Stratusxpeye]

That looks really really nice for a 45mph ts

[WindRunner]

I know at one point the GFDL slowed it down to 1.7kts over the gulf stream.

[Weatherboy1]

to really see this thing get its act together, it will need to maintain that CDO for several hours, and even expand it. This storm has a very small core of strong convection right now, and not much else due to wrapping in of dry air (probably due to the proximity of that ULL moving W into the Gulf now). If it can mix that air out, per the 5 p.m. discussion, then you'll likely see pressures fall and winds pick up ... but I doubt it will be a huge "bombing" out of the system unless its forward speed slows dramatically between now and landfall. There just isn't much water between Katrina and the FL east coast.

-Mike

[Brent]

I know at one point the GFDL slowed it down to 1.7kts over the gulf stream.

[SouthFloridawx]

does this mean it has started to form an eyewall or what does this mean. I was reading the recon reports and I was just confused. Can a met tell me?

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 17
Time: 23:05:30Z
Latitude: 26°N
Longitude: 77.5°W
Location: 65 mi N of Nassau, Bahamas
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 35 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 18 mi SW (215°)
Maximum flight level wind: W (273°) @ 40 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 22 mi SW (216°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 1001 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 70°F at 807 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 807 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 75°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 18 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 1,500 ft
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 21:46:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 215 / 11NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT RAGGED EYEWALL

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes it has formed a eye. Expect it to go boom soon.

[gkrangers]

Yes, it has a ragged eyewall. Not particularly strong yet, but a precursor to further intensification.

[Foladar]

I know at one point the GFDL slowed it down to 1.7kts over the gulf stream.

I second that.

[LAwxrgal]

Never heard of a 45-mph tropical storm that formed an eye. Typically that happens much later in the intensification process.

[Trader Ron]

Yes it has formed a eye. Expect it to go boom soon.

An eye with a 45 mph storm? No way, Jose..

[Scorpion]

Yes TraderRon, it has a closed eyewall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 17
Time: 23:05:30Z
Latitude: 26°N
Longitude: 77.5°W
Location: 65 mi N of Nassau, Bahamas
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 35 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 18 mi SW (215°)
Maximum flight level wind: W (273°) @ 40 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 22 mi SW (216°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 1001 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 70°F at 807 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 807 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 75°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 18 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 1,500 ft
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 21:46:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 215 / 11NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT RAGGED EYEWALL

[tracyswfla]

uh oh Ron ya eatin crow again?

[Trader Ron]

Well it's still 45 mph ...

[tracyswfla]

Well it's still 45 mph ...

officially as of 8pm, yes.... are you going to be able to stay awake for the 11?????

[WeatherEmperor]

Well it's still 45 mph ...

officially as of 8pm, yes.... are you going to be able to stay awake for the 11?????

lol!

<RICKY>

[shaggy]

got to back ron on this one.Even a depression has a CLOSED circulation.A developing system would have a CLOSED wall of convection but that doesn't mean its going to go boom but that its CHANCES of it doing so are increasing and even then explosive development isn't a gaurantee