TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[deltadog03]

do you have any currents coords and movement wxman?

[ALhurricane]

Katrina is definitely getting organized. A burst of deep convection has developed right over the center. Add to the fact that recon indicated a closed eyewall, albeit ragged, suggest that the inner core is coming together. I think significant intensification is becoming more likely, but as wxman57 said, it mayl have a few less hours over water than previously though. Time will tell, but it surely appears Katrina is developing a small tight inner core.

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png">

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity2.png">

[floridahurricaneguy]

-advisory position 26.0n 78.0w motion 270 at 7 knots

-45 Knots Gusting to 50

-Hurricane watches upgrade to Warnings

Dont ask how I know this

[cjrciadt]

The BAMS goes right over me, a brushing of the west coast after crossing seems likely now.

[mahicks]

The BAMS goes right over me, a brushing of the west coast after crossing seems likely now.

I think you'll probably be ok if your just going off of what the BAMS shows ya...It's designed for a "shallow" or "warm" system, which, from the looks of it....it's not/won't be.

Plus, most would probably say that the BAM/s/m/d model is not very good at this latitude.

Plus it's not a true dynamic model.

[jujubean]

The BAMS goes right over me, a brushing of the west coast after crossing seems likely now.

I think you'll probably be ok if your just going off of what the BAMS shows ya...It's designed for a "shallow" or "warm" system, which, from the looks of it....it's not/won't be.

Plus, most would probably say that the BAM/s/m/d model is not very good at this latitude.

Plus it's not a true dynamic model.

which one of the models would be the most accurate for this storm and why?sorry if that is a silly question just don't know much about the dynamics....also it looks like a lot of them forcast a dip to sw at some point is that possible? thanks for any comments.

[HurricaneGirl]

Those model tracks are about the craziest things I've ever seen.

[mvtrucking]

Looking at this loop (0145) is that dot an eye @ 26N 78W ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[jkt21787]

Steve Lyons believe an eyewall is forming rather rapidly, and the IR on TWC shows it VERY well. Could become a hurricane overnight if the trend continues, and hurricane WARNINGS are quite possible at 11.

[SapphireSea]

Looking at this loop (0145) is that dot an eye @ 26N 78W ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

No that looks to be a spec of deep convection.

[ALhurricane]

Looking at this loop (0145) is that dot an eye @ 26N 78W ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What you are seeing is a smal area of very cold cloud tops (probably reaching near -80C). Still too early to see an eye, but its structure continues to improve.

[Brent]

Steve Lyons believe an eyewall is forming rather rapidly, and the IR on TWC shows it VERY well. Could become a hurricane overnight if the trend continues, and hurricane WARNINGS are quite possible at 11.

Uh oh...

[HurricaneGirl]

It sure does look like a teeny, tiny little eye.

[mvtrucking]

Looking at this loop (0145) is that dot an eye @ 26N 78W ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What you are seeing is a smal area of very cold cloud tops (probably reaching near -80C). Still too early to see an eye, but its structure continues to improve.

Thank you.

[CronkPSU]

hmmm, that dot does look imposing, movement seems to be slowly WNW again

i know i know, no wobble wars

[floridahurricaneguy]

funny, not real comments to my post. Hurricane warnings issued at 11pm if you saw my post.

Matt

[ALhurricane]

Steve Lyons believe an eyewall is forming rather rapidly, and the IR on TWC shows it VERY well. Could become a hurricane overnight if the trend continues, and hurricane WARNINGS are quite possible at 11.

I definitely agree. You can see it well (if it will load) off of the Nassau radar.

http://bahamasweather.org.bs/satelliteradar/radar/

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Holy Crap! You can even see it on this water vapor loop as well. Maybe it's rapidly intensifying!!