NCHurricane wrote:THead wrote:The cone IS really, really wide, basically the whole length of the state of Florida. Even the projection for the next 24 hours is really wide. Seems strange, seems like NHC has been nailing them down alot tighter than this lately. Maybe because of the weakness of the storm?
I would guess one reason is because the storm is forecasted to slow to a crawl, it makes the forecast very unsure. It's pretty much taking into account the entire model spread.
It should continue of a westward track, but when they stop or slow to less than 5mph, it gives me an uneasy feeling. That could be supper though.
The error cone never varies with respect to distance from the track to the outer edges at each forecast point. It merely represents an average 10-year forecast error. It does not change size according to forecast confidence. What you're seeing is a wider cone, almost a circle, due to the slow movement of Katrina and the final 2 track points always having a large track error. If Katrina were moving faster, then the cone would be stretched out and look "normal".
