Katrina is looking pretty damn good on infrared
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gatorcane
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latest long range radar NWS Miami is clearly showing how the tunderstorms are starting to wrap around to the W side of the center. We didn't see this last night due to some dry air influence and shear. If that wrapping completes than this storm will strengthen very rapidly....watch this closely everybody as it is key to the intensity forecast.
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wxwatcher91
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gatorcane
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Here goes the rapid intensification that I expected...it was a little late as I thought it would start last night but I predict that it will strengthen rapidly until landfall late tonight along the Broward/Palm Beach line. At least CAT 1 and CAT 2 not out of the question
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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WindRunner
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Trader Ron
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boca_chris wrote:It's strenghtening rapidly now...if it slows or stalls look out but hopefully it will continue a W movement over 5mph....
Chris,
You have been saying this for 24 hrs. The pressure has dropped EIGHT MB in FORTY HOURS. When i see some pressure drops, i will agree with you, that Katrina is finally getting her act together.
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HurricaneGirl
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Holy Crap! -
cyclone_eye
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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mascpa
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Air Force Met wrote:wxwatcher91 wrote:dcuevas wrote:It will be very interesting to see what happens with the wave behind Kat. Any thoughts about after it hits the GOM? I'm don't remember the name of the hurricane that went out and came right back in.. Any thoughts?
In the sunlight the wave behind Katrina has blown up even more convection...
doesnt look very organized though
Look at the diffluence over the top of it...that's the reason. It's got 80 degrees of divergence and any time you get that much divergence aloft in the tropics...you are going to get a LOT of thuderstorms....even if the sfc convergence is low.
Please excuse my ignorance but what is "diffluence"? I don't recall hearing that word before. Thanks!
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wxwonder12
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The news in Palm Beach keeps saying it will come in over the Dade/Broward line, although it looks to me to be more like the Palm Beach/Broward line if not a little farther North. The news also stated that Southern Palm Beach and Central Palm Beach would experience sustained hurricane winds. I am a little confused as to how close to Palm Beach this may be.
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Trader Ron
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Mostly because they have little or no data(recon)...The t numbers are our best tool with out recon...So for now it is a 3.5. If we can't trust it then why do we trust it over the open Atlantic?
That's a lot of bunk.
How about the reports from the Islands? Last night I heard one report of 40 mph winds on one of the Islands.
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wxwatcher91
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Diffluence is the spreading out of air. Remember a Hurricane (and other low pressure systems) are places where air comes rushing in at the surface (convergence). All that air has to go somewhere...or the low pressure would quickly become high pressure because all that air "fills it up".
So the low needs a mechanism to get rid of that air rushing in. In the case of a tropical system, it establishes outflow aloft--air that comes into the low goes up and out--diverging--or creating diffluence--aloft.
Divergence aloft alone acts to lower surface pressures--air rushing away aloft means that more air has to converge at the surface to keep things in "balance". So divergence/diffluence aloft means surface pressures are dropping.
Write back if you want more clarification. It's not quite so simple as I've laid out here, but hope it helps.
So the low needs a mechanism to get rid of that air rushing in. In the case of a tropical system, it establishes outflow aloft--air that comes into the low goes up and out--diverging--or creating diffluence--aloft.
Divergence aloft alone acts to lower surface pressures--air rushing away aloft means that more air has to converge at the surface to keep things in "balance". So divergence/diffluence aloft means surface pressures are dropping.
Write back if you want more clarification. It's not quite so simple as I've laid out here, but hope it helps.
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wxwatcher91
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