NWS Miami Long Range Radar

Ixolib · #61 Postby **Ixolib** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:19 am

Are we sure this ain't a Keys storm?? Or, the radar is just making me think WSW... :?:

tampastorm · #62 Postby **tampastorm** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:22 am

WSW was predicted by TITAN, and Dennis Phillips in Tampa could not figure out why the NHC did not see what TITAN saw. This could be bad for the west coast of FL. The further south it goes, the more a turn north would effect more of the FL west coast.

Recurve · #63 Postby **Recurve** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:26 am

Outer bands getting very close to MIA and Keys

gkrangers · #64 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:42 am

Its moving due west.

Recurve · #65 Postby **Recurve** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:50 am

Intensity looks about the same? Still moving along? Don't want to see stalling/strengthening.

gkrangers · #66 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:51 am

Its moving slowly due west.

Intensity...If I had to guess, probably 50MPH or so. Its better organized than earlier today, but its still not overly impressive.

Recurve · #67 Postby **Recurve** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:54 am

Thanks gk.

#68 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:10 am

i say about the same as you. Me thinks it's gonna wobble like any system so wobble here wobble there and you get the picture.

This is not an actual forcast and should not be taken as such. This is merely speculation..

As I right now I believe the landfall will be anywhere from the Southern Broward County Line to West Palm Beach. The land fall will occur Sometime on friday and not on thursday evening. I expect the system to slow down as a few models have been picking up on. I'm not sure about intensity but, I was checking out the Water Vapor Loop and there is no dry air around the center or within a couple hundred miles and the upper level winds seemed to be light and Favorable. I am going to say high cat 1 or min. cat 2 cane.

Thunder44 · #69 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:15 am

776
WHXX01 KWBC 250647
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050825 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050825 0600 050825 1800 050826 0600 050826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.1N 78.4W 26.0N 79.6W 25.7N 80.9W 25.4N 82.3W
BAMM 26.1N 78.4W 26.3N 79.4W 26.1N 80.6W 25.9N 81.8W
A98E 26.1N 78.4W 25.8N 79.8W 25.5N 80.8W 24.9N 81.6W
LBAR 26.1N 78.4W 26.2N 79.5W 26.2N 80.8W 26.1N 82.1W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050827 0600 050828 0600 050829 0600 050830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 83.6W 24.5N 85.8W 24.8N 87.0W 26.1N 86.5W
BAMM 25.7N 83.0W 25.5N 84.8W 26.0N 85.7W 28.7N 82.0W
A98E 24.5N 81.8W 24.1N 81.7W 24.9N 80.8W 26.1N 76.2W
LBAR 26.0N 83.2W 26.5N 85.7W 28.4N 87.1W 30.9N 86.3W
SHIP 77KTS 86KTS 93KTS 91KTS
DSHP 33KTS 44KTS 45KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.1N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 25.3N LONM12 = 77.0W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

6z models initialized movement at 275 degrees, slightly north of due west.

Sanibel · #70 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:30 am

North of west.

Storm has structure problems. Doubt any rapid will occur now, especially with that big blow-up just to the east...

jpigott · #71 Postby **jpigott** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:29 am

storm appears to be attempting to wrap up again. Right now doesn't look like this is going to be much of a rain or wind event. However, Katrina is expected to slow down right while she's over the gulf stream where there is unlikely to be any upwelling due to how fast the water is moving, but she is going to need to slow down quick she is just about ready to move west of Grand Bahama Island which is only 50-60 east of the palm beach county coast line

jax · #72 Postby **jax** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:20 am

bump
could we skicky this?
please?

x-y-no · #73 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:29 am

The motion for the last hour and a half or so sure looks to be a little south of due west. Not enough to be headed for Dade, but maybe south Broward rather than the Broward/Palm Beach line like it looked to be headed earlier this morning.

I'd say this is just a wobble, except both Jeff and Derek mentioned the possibility in their discussions in the Analysis forum.

It seems to be wrapping up a bit better, but the NW side is still pretty weak - must still be some mid-level shear going on, but weaker than before.

#74 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:30 am

yes it is moving WSW now...maybe a wobble but it looks definitive....some models take it south of Miami.

Scorpion · #75 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:32 am

Chris this is not going to Dade County, sorry.

#76 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:33 am

it wouldn't surprise me but I would expect a WNW wobble in an hour or two to put it back on track.

x-y-no · #77 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:37 am

boca_chris wrote:yes it is moving WSW now...maybe a wobble but it looks definitive....some models take it south of Miami.

Yeah, I know the GFDL still does that, but I don't buy it for a second.

I think North Dade is the southern limit for the track, with Broward more likely.

#78 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:45 am

she is slowing down now based on radar observations...

#79 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:47 am

yeah, i think broward county looks pretty good for a landfall...although just woke up and first glance at radar shows me a wsw jog currently...

#80 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:50 am

ah yes, the imfamous wobbles by the coast..i remember going crazy when dennis was wobbling....seems to be going a little south of west...just going to have to wait and see what she does today

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