TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

I'm thinking Panama City to St. Marks right now... bullseye at Apalachicola. Track should keep the center east of me.

I HATE the GFDL.

[deltadog03]

ok, it maybe me....BUT look how much all of the GFS based models...excluding the gfdl..shift considerably west in the gulf and on the 2nd landfall....i would expect that trend west to continue

That's a pretty good consensous and the NHC course seems to be right in the middle. I would not expect a big shift in forecast track. 2nd Landfall should occur in the far eastern edge of the panhandle. I dont see anything further west than PCB.

There is not much run to run consistancy...like i said before...thats a big shift to the west with the tropical and gfs runs....they had it not even making landfall on the eastern part of florida...now into the gulf...hmmm...i would look for a westerd trend to continue

[Stormcenter]

ok, it maybe me....BUT look how much all of the GFS based models...excluding the gfdl..shift considerably west in the gulf and on the 2nd landfall....i would expect that trend west to continue

That's a pretty good consensous and the NHC course seems to be right in the middle. I would not expect a big shift in forecast track. 2nd Landfall should occur in the far eastern edge of the panhandle. I dont see anything further west than PCB.

The key thing is it the beginning of a "trend"?

[dwg71]

ok, it maybe me....BUT look how much all of the GFS based models...excluding the gfdl..shift considerably west in the gulf and on the 2nd landfall....i would expect that trend west to continue

That's a pretty good consensous and the NHC course seems to be right in the middle. I would not expect a big shift in forecast track. 2nd Landfall should occur in the far eastern edge of the panhandle. I dont see anything further west than PCB.

There is not much run to run consistancy...like i said before...thats a big shift to the west with the tropical and gfs runs....they had it not even making landfall on the eastern part of florida...now into the gulf...hmmm...i would look for a westerd trend to continue

Where do you see landfall (2nd)?

[Rainband]

ok, it maybe me....BUT look how much all of the GFS based models...excluding the gfdl..shift considerably west in the gulf and on the 2nd landfall....i would expect that trend west to continue

That's a pretty good consensous and the NHC course seems to be right in the middle. I would not expect a big shift in forecast track. 2nd Landfall should occur in the far eastern edge of the panhandle. I dont see anything further west than PCB.

There is not much run to run consistancy...like i said before...thats a big shift to the west with the tropical and gfs runs....they had it not even making landfall on the eastern part of florida...now into the gulf...hmmm...i would look for a westerd trend to continue

Weakness in the high

[deltadog03]

yeah, a weakness in the high...not a powerfull shortwave to make a hard right hook...i think that the models will trend west again...

[Rainband]

yeah, a weakness in the high...not a powerfull shortwave to make a hard right hook...i think that the models will trend west again...

ok

[deltadog03]

lol, i am not trying to argue with ya... just my thoughts

[Javlin]

yeah, a weakness in the high...not a powerfull shortwave to make a hard right hook...i think that the models will trend west again...

Thats what I have been tring to figure out myself the GFS a couple runs ago acted like the TROPH would pick it up.You look at the WV loop you see the troph coming damn is this thing far N now.The one up there now has had little effect.



http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Birds Eye View, based on recon data.
EDIT: Added south side recon reports.

[mvtrucking]

Very cool images dolebot. Thanks

[OuterBanker]

I would suggest downloading Google Earth. Caution, it can be addictive.

[CronkPSU]

google earth is simply incredible, i love it and yes it is addictive

great job dolebot!

[Stormtrack03]

The radar loop, I think, shows this storm maybe made a very small wsw wobble, and has slowed down even more.

[WeatherEmperor]

From that radar at least it does look like most of the worst weather is to the eastern side and southern side.

<RICKY>

[Recurve]

boca_chris asked a while back where I was...Key Largo 25.1n 80.4w

Looks like we are OK. We can take wind, just not water. My yard is only about 3 feet above and a block west of the ocean.

Looks like GFDL south drift was a myth> very thankful for that. Don't want a last-minute scramble out of the Keys with a storm coming down from the north and strengthening.

Hope everyone in the path stays safe.

[JTD]

On CNN Live today at the top of their 11 a.m. hour CNN met Chad Myers said that "Katrina is just exploding right now". I'll post the transcripts as soon as it is available on cnn.com.

[mtm4319]

Dolebot, looks like you could be squarely in the path of this thing (but you probably knew that already).

An overlay of the most recent Miami radar with S2K member locations plotted (unfortunately, it doesn't include the placemarks for those who replied in the lat/lon thread in the month of August, as GE crashed on me after I inputted them):


(Click for full-size)

Finally, a practical application of what I've spent so many hours working on.

[jasons2k]

Tons of new images, enjoy

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 6&start=40

[mtm4319]

A couple of alternate views: (click for full-size)