Strong trough saving upper Texas/LA coasts Again???

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The Wed 11PM and Thurs 5AM NHC discussions about Katrina said a strong trough will come down to the southern US and therefore pick Katrina up and pull her to the north once she gets in the Gulf. How sure are they about the strength of this front? Is it being over intensified again. I know there was supposed to be one at the beginning of the week to drop down and make it all of the way to the LA coast, but was not even close to being as strong as forecast and not even making it into the state. If someone could go into more detail with thoughts and opinions I would really apprreciate it.

[BamaMan]

Good points CM. I think the forecast as to exactly when, if, and where she starts moving northward is still very much up in the air. IMHO. We'll be playing that old "Wait and See" game it looks like for the next few days

[wxwatcher91]

I think once it crosses into the Gulf then we will be able to get a better perspective of where it might strike next...

[KatDaddy]

Yes. We look to be saved again.

HOU GAL AFD:

BY
SUNDAY THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE MODEL PUSHES A TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY WITH A SPEED MAXIMUM
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS...THE BEHAVIOR
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE FL PENINSULA
MAY HELP DETERMINE WHAT OCCURS OVER SE TX.


CORPUS CHRISTI AFD:

LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE US WILL SLIDE WESTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND AS
FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH IMPACT OF THIS ON SOUTH TEXAS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
MINIMAL...IT MAY HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF TS
KATRINA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM WILL
CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THEN HEAD NORTHWARD AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN US. ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME ARE THE 00Z
ETA AND 00Z AFWA MM5 WHICH MOVE THE STORM FARTHER WEST INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY AND ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KATRINA

[vbhoutex]

Definitely playing the wait and see game. However, it isn't the trough itself that will pick up Katrina(if she is picked up). She will actually be moving into a weakness in the ridge/between two ridges that will be enhanced by shortwaves moving along the trough which will actually be anchored up in the Great Lakes region. For lack of a better example think of a plate over the E Coast spinning clockwise and the same over LA doing the same. A lot of times the area between the two would "fill in" and guide the storm more westerly. In this case that area/weakness between the two will be enhanced by the shortwaves that are swinging around(moving SE, E then NE along) the trough to the North.

[Air Force Met]

Why is it that our ridge always disappears when there are tropical systems around? As soon as they are gone...then the ridge builds back in and it's 100 degrees with a 75 degree dewpoint...and a HI of 115?

I don't want a major hurricane...but a nice drenching tropical wave or TD would be nice.

[Huckster]

Why is it that our ridge always disappears when there are tropical systems around? As soon as they are gone...then the ridge builds back in and it's 100 degrees with a 75 degree dewpoint...and a HI of 115?

I don't want a major hurricane...but a nice drenching tropical wave or TD would be nice.

I don't know. I usually try to be very scientific and logical, but it does SEEM like upper Texas and Louisiana have some sort of shield that protects them from full fledged hurricanes and only allows in tropical storms, while the Florida Panhandle has a magnet that draws all the storms in or makes them lopsided toward to the east when they hit LA. Of course, every once in a while, a hurricane might slip through, but it's got to start out as a cat. 4 a la Lili to make it through. I really can't believe the Panhandle is gonna get nailed again, but it looks like that's gonna be the case.

[LAwxrgal]

Local met said the same thing. He mentioned that this trough would drop down on Sunday...and said the timing, strength, and placement of this trough would be key.

[Stormcenter]

Why is it that our ridge always disappears when there are tropical systems around? As soon as they are gone...then the ridge builds back in and it's 100 degrees with a 75 degree dewpoint...and a HI of 115?

I don't want a major hurricane...but a nice drenching tropical wave or TD would be nice.

Yes it would.

[Portastorm]

Why is it that our ridge always disappears when there are tropical systems around? As soon as they are gone...then the ridge builds back in and it's 100 degrees with a 75 degree dewpoint...and a HI of 115?

I don't want a major hurricane...but a nice drenching tropical wave or TD would be nice.

I don't know. I usually try to be very scientific and logical, but it does SEEM like upper Texas and Louisiana have some sort of shield that protects them from full fledged hurricanes and only allows in tropical storms, while the Florida Panhandle has a magnet that draws all the storms in or makes them lopsided toward to the east when they hit LA. Of course, every once in a while, a hurricane might slip through, but it's got to start out as a cat. 4 a la Lili to make it through. I really can't believe the Panhandle is gonna get nailed again, but it looks like that's gonna be the case.

I'm the shield!

I've lived in Texas since 1984 and we've had a few tropical storms and Cat-1s and 2s ... but nothing major since then (ok, I'm not going to count Bret in 99 and the cows he killed in Kenedy County). My weather pals here call me "the Deflector." I'm beginning to believe them!

I'm with AFM ... I don't want a major hurricane ... but a nice tropical storm drenching would be welcomed. Two years running now of a non tropical season.

Michael (aka The Deflector)

[Stormcenter]

Yes. We look to be saved again.

HOU GAL AFD:

BY
SUNDAY THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE MODEL PUSHES A TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY WITH A SPEED MAXIMUM
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS...THE BEHAVIOR
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE FL PENINSULA
MAY HELP DETERMINE WHAT OCCURS OVER SE TX.


CORPUS CHRISTI AFD:

LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE US WILL SLIDE WESTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND AS
FAIRLY STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH IMPACT OF THIS ON SOUTH TEXAS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
MINIMAL...IT MAY HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF TS
KATRINA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM WILL
CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THEN HEAD NORTHWARD AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN US. ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME ARE THE 00Z
ETA AND 00Z AFWA MM5 WHICH MOVE THE STORM FARTHER WEST INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY AND ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KATRINA

Do you guys remember Elena and how close she came to Tampa? Then
was missed by was thought to be a "strong" trough but turned out to be much weaker and then headed westward.

[GalvestonDuck]

Yup, Porta -- you, and self-professed hurricane repellant OperaGhost (Where is she these days?), are keeping us high and dry.

[deltadog03]

i think we should be ok, but, you never know

[Portastorm]

Yup, Porta -- you, and self-professed hurricane repellant OperaGhost (Where is she these days?), are keeping us high and dry.

Listen Duck, I'll give y'all a heads up right now. I'm going to North Carolina in late September for my niece's wedding. You know what that means? Look out Texas! (I won't be here ...)

What did Uncle Ben tell Peter Parker in Spiderman? "With great power, comes great responsibility." Some days, it's depressing being THE DEFLECTOR

[BayouVenteux]

Do you guys remember Elena and how close she came to Tampa? Then was missed by was thought to be a "strong" trough but turned out to be much weaker and then headed westward.

Boy, do I recall Elena. 1/2 of the Gulf Coast, from S. Central Louisiana to SW Florida, was under watches and warnings at one point or another. I occasionally wonder if we'll ever find ourselves with another difficult-to-forecast, Elena-type system in the Gulf, what with the advancements in computer modelling and weather data collection / dissemination since '85.

[cajungal]

It does seem like Louisiana/Tx always seems to get spared. A few tropical storms here and there. But, I only experience 1 actual hurricane (Andrew). And I am 29 years old now. I guess the people who want to experience an actual hurricane will have to move to Florida where they are more frequent. But, trust me, you don't want the heartache they bring. Navarre and Pensacola are still very badly damaged and I feel for those people.

[Stormtrack]

It does seem like Louisiana/Tx always seems to get spared. A few tropical storms here and there. But, I only experience 1 actual hurricane (Andrew). And I am 29 years old now. I guess the people who want to experience an actual hurricane will have to move to Florida where they are more frequent. But, trust me, you don't want the heartache they bring. Navarre and Pensacola are still very badly damaged and I feel for those people.

Don't make light of tropical storms. Remember Allison in 2001 killed 41 people (22 in Texas) and caused billions of dollars in damage.

[GalvestonDuck]

Yup, Porta -- you, and self-professed hurricane repellant OperaGhost (Where is she these days?), are keeping us high and dry.

Listen Duck, I'll give y'all a heads up right now. I'm going to North Carolina in late September for my niece's wedding. You know what that means? Look out Texas! (I won't be here ...)

What did Uncle Ben tell Peter Parker in Spiderman? "With great power, comes great responsibility." Some days, it's depressing being THE DEFLECTOR

I'll get the boards out now.

Seriously, I know it's bugging the crap out of you guys in FL. But believe me. some of us watching from the sidelines have had it up to here with the 'canes also. I want to erase the words "not again" from my vocabulary.

[cajungal]

It does seem like Louisiana/Tx always seems to get spared. A few tropical storms here and there. But, I only experience 1 actual hurricane (Andrew). And I am 29 years old now. I guess the people who want to experience an actual hurricane will have to move to Florida where they are more frequent. But, trust me, you don't want the heartache they bring. Navarre and Pensacola are still very badly damaged and I feel for those people.

Don't make light of tropical storms. Remember Allison in 2001 killed 41 people (22 in Texas) and caused billions of dollars in damage.

I am not. We got a lot out of Allison here in southeast Louisiana. My town was under 4 feet of water in some places. My itty bitty town of Schriever population 5,000 made the channel 4 New Orleans news. Thankfully nobody died in Louisiana (at least, I don't think). But, the neighborhood across from mine was devastated. Lots lost their homes. We thankfully were high and dry at my home. But, I did not think the rain would ever stop. It rained so hard and it lasted for hours upon hours.

[Anonymous]

If this had gone to Texas...I have little doubt it would have been a Category 4.