Katrina=4.0 T number by SSD

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:20 pm

25/1745 UTC 26.2N 79.7W T4.0/4.0 KATRINA -- Atlantic Ocean

4.0 means hurricane winds.

4.0 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb

#2 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:22 pm

Hurricane Katrina has arrived :eek:

#3 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:22 pm

Possibly upgraded by next advisory?

gkrangers · #4 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:22 pm

Unfortunately, (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), its not a hurricane despite the satellite estimate.

Sanibel · #5 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:24 pm

987 is pressure drop. Go hurricane...

gkrangers · #6 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:25 pm

These are satellite *estimates*.

There is hard factual recon data that says we have a strong tropical storm.

Just want that to be clear.

MiamiensisWx · #7 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:26 pm

If it is confirmed, do you think there will be a special advisory or update, cycloneye?

#8 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:26 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

it's not moving so expect possibly more strenghtening...

Thunder44 · #9 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:27 pm

Recon had two SFMR reports of 74kts winds at the surface in the last hour. They may not upgrade yet though. I think it will be 70mph at 3pm.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:27 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:If it is confirmed, do you think there will be a special advisory or update, cycloneye?

At 3 PM there will be an advisorie.Let's see if they upgrade there or wait to the 5 PM one as recon is recollecting more data.

Sanibel · #11 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:29 pm

It's a moot point if it tracks slowly over the Gulf Stream...

MiamiensisWx · #12 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:32 pm

The 3PM update will be coming in shortly in about 15 minutes...

Thunder44 · #13 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:33 pm

729
WHXX01 KWBC 251818
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050825 1800 050826 0600 050826 1800 050827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 79.5W 26.0N 81.1W 25.8N 82.6W 25.6N 83.9W
BAMM 26.2N 79.5W 26.4N 81.0W 26.4N 82.5W 26.4N 83.8W
A98E 26.2N 79.5W 26.1N 80.2W 25.9N 81.1W 25.8N 81.5W
LBAR 26.2N 79.5W 26.0N 80.6W 25.8N 82.1W 25.7N 83.7W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 79KTS 83KTS
DSHP 60KTS 54KTS 38KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050827 1800 050828 1800 050829 1800 050830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 85.1W 25.6N 87.1W 26.7N 88.2W 30.0N 86.7W
BAMM 26.5N 84.9W 26.6N 86.9W 27.3N 87.7W 29.4N 85.6W
A98E 25.7N 81.6W 26.0N 82.8W 26.9N 82.5W 30.1N 79.7W
LBAR 25.8N 85.4W 26.7N 88.3W 28.9N 89.6W 31.7N 87.5W
SHIP 88KTS 95KTS 94KTS 86KTS
DSHP 47KTS 54KTS 37KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.2N LONCUR = 79.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 26.1N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 25.3N LONM24 = 77.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 50NM

18z models initalized at 60kts or 70mph.

Thunder44 · #14 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:37 pm

TPNT KGWC 251825
A. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (TWELVE)
B. 25/1731Z (73)
C. 26.2N/0
D. 79.6W/2
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS -25/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. FT BASED ON DT, PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

KAMINSKI

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:37 pm

I think they will not upgrade yet to hurricane at 3 PM maybe a bump to 70 mph despite sat estimates.

Derek Ortt · #16 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:38 pm

there is hard data suggesting we have a hurricane. The SFMR is supposed to be used over the flight level data as that requires an extrapolation

gkrangers · #17 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:40 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:there is hard data suggesting we have a hurricane. The SFMR is supposed to be used over the flight level data as that requires an extrapolation

I wasn't aware of the SFMR data.

If that is what they are supposed to go by, and they feel its accurate, then by all means I guess its a hurricane.

Derek Ortt · #18 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:44 pm

SFMR has 74KT. I doubt NHC will go that high now, maybe on BT as these values can fluctuate somewhat

Derecho · #19 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:54 pm

Still always mystified as to why people care about Dvorak numbers or make a big deal about them, when there's recon in a storm.

#20 Postby **loon** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:27 pm

It has to do with bent rays of light, small portions of albanian ragweed, and a water buffalo, Derecho....

Cheers,
loon

edit: SpellCheckAfterPost Ver. 1.0

Katrina=4.0 T number by SSD

Katrina=4.0 T number by SSD

Who is online