Less Likely

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jax

Less Likely

#1 Postby jax » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:01 pm

Looks like Katrina is running out of time...
Just off the coast now and with recon only
getting 59kt winds... and the large open
area in the NW quad showing up on radar...

It does still have the warm GS waters running under her... but
Land will start to eat away more and more at the NE quad
over the next few hours... I'm saying strong storm much like
Arlene...
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jax

#2 Postby jax » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:04 pm

here is the rtecon... west side of eye open... 64 FL max...

URNT12 KNHC 251800
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/1718Z
B. 26 DEG 12 MIN N
79 DEG 30 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1336 M
D. 50 KT
E. 340 DEG 20 NM
F. 073 DEG 64 KT
G. 343 DEG 16 NM
H. 990 MB
I. 19 C/ 1556 M
J. 22 C/ 1630 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN WEST
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0612A KATRINA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 64 KTS NW QUAD 1713Z
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Sanibel
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:09 pm

All depends if it slows. Remember, it could still have several hours over the Gulf Stream...
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#4 Postby fci » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:12 pm

Circulation will be over land a lot sooner than several hours form now.
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jax

#5 Postby jax » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:16 pm

fci wrote:Circulation will be over land a lot sooner than several hours form now.


agreed... she give it her all! I give her less than a
5% chance of making Hurricane status... The land will
start to effect her in a big way over the next few hours.

BUT...
then comes the Gulf...
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#6 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:47 pm

Looks to be a hurricane now... SFMR is showing well over hurricane force sustained and it's stalled right now.
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#7 Postby NC George » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:51 pm

Lyons just confirmed that it has run out or room.
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#8 Postby djtil » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:06 pm

yep...will have to wait for the gulf to be a hurricane....
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jax

#9 Postby jax » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:10 pm

Brent wrote:Looks to be a hurricane now... SFMR is showing well over hurricane force sustained and it's stalled right now.


nope... still a tropical storm... I don't think she's gonna make it
to Hurricane untill she gets in the GOM...
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SouthernWx

#10 Postby SouthernWx » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:12 pm

IMO it is a hurricane at this time.....and will deepen right up to the Broward and Palm Beach county beachfronts......

I fully expect gusts in excess of 100 mph at time of landfall......and won't be surprised if 100 mph sustained is attained.

PW
(on vacation in the Blue Ridge mountains of northeast Tennessee)
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#11 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:13 pm

jax wrote:
Brent wrote:Looks to be a hurricane now... SFMR is showing well over hurricane force sustained and it's stalled right now.


nope... still a tropical storm... I don't think she's gonna make it
to Hurricane untill she gets in the GOM...


She still has about 6 to 8 hours to get inland... storms can strengthen until their center is inland. Based on recon, it's a hurricane now.
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Foladar

#12 Postby Foladar » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:15 pm

Yeah, news shows it still as 35 miles away, so still some time.
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#13 Postby djtil » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:15 pm

just wow..some people just need drama.
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#14 Postby InimanaChoogamaga » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:16 pm

It's stalled? That's kind of frightening. :eek:
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#15 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:17 pm

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:It's stalled? That's kind of frightening. :eek:
Still moving, only 5mph due West, just enough for a minimum Cat for 5pm.
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#16 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:17 pm

Looks like she is forming a new eye and the old one is fading away. Might be pulling something like Charley :eek:, though not nearly as strong.
Last edited by txwatcher91 on Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jax

#17 Postby jax » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:19 pm

well.. to be honest... 69 mps 72 mph... minimal threat...
She is still OFFICIALLY a Tropical Storm... IMHO she
won't make hurricane... too close to land and land WILL
start to eat away at her banding... We'll have to wait
and see what she can do in the GOM.
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#18 Postby Luckydog33 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:19 pm

SouthernWx wrote:IMO it is a hurricane at this time.....and will deepen right up to the Broward and Palm Beach county beachfronts......

I fully expect gusts in excess of 100 mph at time of landfall......and won't be surprised if 100 mph sustained is attained.

PW
(on vacation in the Blue Ridge mountains of northeast Tennessee)


no way it gets to 100 mph
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#19 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:21 pm

Luckydog33 wrote:
SouthernWx wrote:IMO it is a hurricane at this time.....and will deepen right up to the Broward and Palm Beach county beachfronts......

I fully expect gusts in excess of 100 mph at time of landfall......and won't be surprised if 100 mph sustained is attained.

PW
(on vacation in the Blue Ridge mountains of northeast Tennessee)


no way it gets to 100 mph


Agree....really, I do agree.
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jax

#20 Postby jax » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:22 pm

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:It's stalled? That's kind of frightening. :eek:


it's not stalled... NHC just released report saying she's moving
6mph... land fall should be before dark... JMHO
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