Less Likely

[tallywx]

The people who really need to eat crow were the ones calling for rapid intensification for the last 24 hours.

agreed... i think she will be bowngraded to TS before landfall...

You are a troll with that statment. Mods...?

you take that back!

look at the radar... the eye can't even stay together...
Land is going to start taking it's toll on her... it would be
one thing if she were moving 15mph... she's not...

you are the troll... and probably a whishcaster too!

Adjacent land sure took a toll on Hurricane Danny in 1997, which STRENGTHENED while sitting over Mobile Bay. Oh, and what about Charley, which maintained intensity while traversing a HARBOR to hit Punta Gorda with 145 mph winds. Under your defintion, land should have taken a toll on those systems.

As long as the eye is over water, that's all that matters.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Its a hurricane now, period, and it will make landfall in the next hour or so. End of discussion.

[gkrangers]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

Just let them handle it. No use in always going around tattling on people.

[duris]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

If either of you are trolls and have managed to post between 500 and 1500 times, then either I'm impressed, or we haves some bad mods.

[Brent]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

Just let them handle it. No use in always going around tattling on people.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

(though likely not necessary, still wanted to err on the side of caution)

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

I was just about to do so.

I really shouldn't make a reply, but I will. Jax, if you say that this is going to weaken to a TS before landfall, show me all of the data you have that says she will weaken.

I can give you plenty of data that she WON'T weaken:

-moving slowly over the HOT Gulf Stream waters
-extremely well-organized and still improving
-almost no shear
-only a tiny bit of dry air which is mixing out anyway

What's your argument?

And Florida, stay safe! In the future, I would not listen to this guy for weather forecasts.

-Andrew92

[jkt21787]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

If either of you are trolls and have managed to post between 500 and 1500 times, then either I'm impressed, or we haves some bad mods.

Believe me, I am no troll.

I would never and have never made any statements of that manner. I did feel that a mod should be personally contacted here to ensure they were aware just in case, though they probably already were. I will not let a member wrongly accuse me of being something I'm not.

I think his statements make my comments toward him more credible though, though it was probably not needed. Sorry.

[Brent]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

If either of you are trolls and have managed to post between 500 and 1500 times, then either I'm impressed, or we haves some bad mods.

jkt is not a troll... I know him from other boards.

[Andrew92]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

Just let them handle it. No use in always going around tattling on people.

No, if someone is trolling, you have to report the moderators. Contrary to what you might think, they do NOT read every post.

-Andrew92

[Steve]

>>Lyons just confirmed that it has run out or room.

Heh. TWC blows it again.

Anyway, remember that a storm making landfall westward at a 90 degree angle is apt to explode right at landfall as the spinning interacts with the land. We've seen it 4 tmies this year in Mexico. I was talking about this yesterday but almost nobody wanted to hear it. Take a look at the super high res visible real time (now updating every 7 minutes). You'll see why it became a Cat 1.

Steve

[jkt21787]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

Just let them handle it. No use in always going around tattling on people.

I'm not "tattling" on anybody. This is the second time, I believe, that I have ever contacted, personally, a mod about a certain poster. You too should not make me something I'm not.

[duris]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

If either of you are trolls and have managed to post between 500 and 1500 times, then either I'm impressed, or we haves some bad mods.

Believe me, I am no troll.

I would never and have never made any statements of that manner. I did feel that a mod should be personally contacted here to ensure they were aware just in case, though they probably already were. I will not let a member wrongly accuse me of being something I'm not.

I think his statements make my comments toward him more credible though, though it was probably not needed. Sorry.

Obviously neither of you are trolls. Thought you were both ribbing each other, but apparently not.

Perhaps now we can return to our regularly scheduled programming.

[jax]

my arguement is the obvious open area to the north of the
center... the fact that the eye wall can't keep the north side closed
and the fact that land does have a dragging effect on the system...
JMHO...
again... we are talking about 68 - 73 mph... I will be VERY surprised
if any land based recorded sustained winds will come in over 70mph.
maybe a few gusts over 70.. but not sustained. JMHO... and the H
stands for Humble... not troll.

[jax]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

If either of you are trolls and have managed to post between 500 and 1500 times, then either I'm impressed, or we haves some bad mods.

Believe me, I am no troll.

I would never and have never made any statements of that manner. I did feel that a mod should be personally contacted here to ensure they were aware just in case, though they probably already were. I will not let a member wrongly accuse me of being something I'm not.

I think his statements make my comments toward him more credible though, though it was probably not needed. Sorry.

appology accepted...

[Sanibel]

Admittedly, winds are high far from the center up near Palm Beach. That is a TS characteristic...

[NC George]

>>Lyons just confirmed that it has run out or room.

Heh. TWC blows it again.

Anyway, remember that a storm making landfall westward at a 90 degree angle is apt to explode right at landfall as the spinning interacts with the land. We've seen it 4 tmies this year in Mexico. I was talking about this yesterday but almost nobody wanted to hear it. Take a look at the super high res visible real time (now updating every 7 minutes). You'll see why it became a Cat 1.

Steve

He wasn't entirely wrong, he said it was a 65 mph storm, might make minimal Cat 1 just before landfall, but it wouldn't really make a difference in the impact. Sorry for the incomplete info last post!

[Steve]

No problem. Thanks for the clarification NC.

Steve

[Thunder44]

my arguement is the obvious open area to the north of the
center... the fact that the eye wall can't keep the north side closed
and the fact that land does have a dragging effect on the system...
JMHO...
again... we are talking about 68 - 73 mph... I will be VERY surprised
if any land based recorded sustained winds will come in over 70mph.
maybe a few gusts over 70.. but not sustained. JMHO... and the H
stands for Humble... not troll.

Thunderstorms are increasing around the center, which tells me it may be holding it's own or getting even little stronger. This is not a Cat 3 hurricane, you can't expect everything to be perfect.

[jkt21787]

I have contacted the mods about jax's statements.

If either of you are trolls and have managed to post between 500 and 1500 times, then either I'm impressed, or we haves some bad mods.

Believe me, I am no troll.

I would never and have never made any statements of that manner. I did feel that a mod should be personally contacted here to ensure they were aware just in case, though they probably already were. I will not let a member wrongly accuse me of being something I'm not.

I think his statements make my comments toward him more credible though, though it was probably not needed. Sorry.

appology accepted...

I hope everything is cool! Lets move on...

[WeatherEmperor]

my arguement is the obvious open area to the north of the
center... the fact that the eye wall can't keep the north side closed
and the fact that land does have a dragging effect on the system...
JMHO...
again... we are talking about 68 - 73 mph... I will be VERY surprised
if any land based recorded sustained winds will come in over 70mph.
maybe a few gusts over 70.. but not sustained. JMHO... and the H
stands for Humble... not troll.

Thunderstorms are increasing around the center, which tells me it may be holding it's own or getting even little stronger. This is not a Cat 3 hurricane, you can't expect everything to be perfect.

thank god its not a Cat 3 hurricane.

<RICKY>