Are the models showing a more west track now?

[Opal storm]

I think over the next day or so we will see the NHC take their track further west.I just don't see it taking such a sharp turn to the north once in the Gulf and it looks like the models are starting to agree with me.

[hicksta]

Opal,see the thing is it needs to turn N =]. Kat knows NOT TO MESS WITH TEXAS.

[Opal storm]

Opal,see the thing is it needs to turn N =]. Kat knows NOT TO MESS WITH TEXAS.

I think TX is safe,but I don't think SE LA,MS and AL need to let their guard down.

[Rainband]

Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

Agreed. I think the NHC has done a great Job this year and thats who I will listen to. Honestly Some people on here will say anything in hopes the storm will come there way. Facts are Facts and thats what The NHC provides.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Not that it means much, but the ecmwf might have drifted back to the left too. I'm fairly confident in the NHC track. They might tweak it a little left or right, but anything outside of Pensacola to PC at second landfall would surprise me.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5082512!!/

[Stratosphere747]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... &type=mbir

The flow is still predominately east to west in the upper levels, at least to my amateur eyes and you can even see that the overall structure of the storm is being pushed a bit south.

Until the NHC's begins to make comments in their discussions though, I have to believe that it is still a Fla panhandle event.

[Steve]

>>Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

Depends on who "we" is. Statecasters will usually find something to defend a position. Regardless of the 18z runs, I'm sure the next set will swing back and forth until they settle. No way I'm making the call yet, but I'm still favoring a Santa Rosa/Okaloosa/Walton Co. landfall at least as an H.



Steve

[3rdEyeOutFlow]

darinh wrote:
That model jumped 2 states to the left

dwg71 wrote:
In more ways than one AL is hardly a state...


Should we just ignore the fact that dwg71 has just insulted the good people of the great state of Alabama? I for one am shocked! This kind of behavoir should not be tolerated! Moderators PLEASE...put this kind of rhetoric in check!

[Opal storm]

Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

Agreed. I think the NHC has done a great Job this year and thats who I will listen to. Honestly Some people on here will say anything in hopes the storm will come there way. Facts are Facts and thats what The NHC provides.

I see no -removed- on this thread.All I see is a rather good discussion.

[NorthGaWeather]

darinh wrote:
That model jumped 2 states to the left

dwg71 wrote:
In more ways than one AL is hardly a state...


Should we just ignore the fact that dwg71 has just insulted the good people of the great state of Alabama? I for one am shocked! This kind of behavoir should not be tolerated! Moderators PLEASE...put this kind of rhetoric in check!

Just ignore dwg. But it was a nice cheap shot.

[FloridaGirl]

I was born and raised in the great state of Alabama, and would give anything to go back there. That was truly a nasty comment.

[dwg71]

darinh wrote:
That model jumped 2 states to the left

dwg71 wrote:
In more ways than one AL is hardly a state...


Should we just ignore the fact that dwg71 has just insulted the good people of the great state of Alabama? I for one am shocked! This kind of behavoir should not be tolerated! Moderators PLEASE...put this kind of rhetoric in check!

It was a joke, mainly directed at the length of its coastline.

[Rainband]

Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

Agreed. I think the NHC has done a great Job this year and thats who I will listen to. Honestly Some people on here will say anything in hopes the storm will come there way. Facts are Facts and thats what The NHC provides.

I see no -removed- on this thread.All I see is a rather good discussion.

Ok. Opal Dwg71 your comment was uncalled for and hopefully an apology is made.

[gboudx]

Geez, a comment like that bothers some people? I grew up in La and have heard all the negative comments about cajuns and La in general. None of it bothers me. Guess I have thicker skin.

[hicksta]

i think he meant 1 state because not alot of AL is on the water..

[Brent]

darinh wrote:
That model jumped 2 states to the left

dwg71 wrote:
In more ways than one AL is hardly a state...


Should we just ignore the fact that dwg71 has just insulted the good people of the great state of Alabama? I for one am shocked! This kind of behavoir should not be tolerated! Moderators PLEASE...put this kind of rhetoric in check!

I agree...

[Rainband]

Geez, a comment like that bothers some people? I grew up in La and have heard all the negative comments about cajuns and La in general. None of it bothers me. Guess I have thicker skin.

Doesn't matter how thick a person is. Insults aren't Welcome and will not be tolerated at Storm2k. Thanks for your input though

[dwg71]

Also, note the smiley face next to comment. Jeez some one comes on here with there second post and digs up something posted an hour ago and gets everybody worked up.

Most people on here know, I'm harmless. I live in TX, Pasadena to be exact. I dont know anybody from Alabama, I've heard jokes just like everybody else. Also, if it weren't for Alabama, I couldn't get to Disneyworld on I-10.

[FloridaGirl]

Your right dwg71, that state does not have much of a coastline. Sorry I misunderstood. I just get so tired of everyone I work with making remarks about the Alabama rednecks and the way we talk, it just set me off. Have a good day.

[Ivanhater]

well i just got out of the meteorology meeting at usa and he said the models shifted back west and i just saw them and wow!