Possible Cat 4 in the Gulf???

[jax]

Noticed this at the bottom of the 5pm discussion...

"Katrina is expected to strengthen to 90 kt before
landfall occurs in the Florida Panhandle. This is consistent with
the SHIPS intensity model and the trend in the GFDL model...
although the latter model makes Katrina a 118-kt category 4 storm."

Yikes!

[JtSmarts]

Depends on Katrina's state exiting Fl, how fast/slow she moves over the Gulf and when she makes the turn North.

[HurricaneGirl]

[skysummit]

Well, the gulf waters can support a Cat 5 if everything else is perfect. Just like JT says, it all depends on how well she holds together across Florida, and just how long she stays over the Gulf.

[Rainband]

The latter model also had it in the keys.

[WeatherEmperor]

The latter model also had it in the keys.

lol yeah. thats why they arent putting too much faith into it, however not totally ignoring it either.

<RICKY>

[Opal storm]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

[baitism]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

[Opal storm]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

It also depends on what the shear is like.

[cjrciadt]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

It also depends on what the shear is like.

The GFDL has been saying something around 950mb since late Mon. The only way this could happen is if conditions are perfect (temp, shear, forward motion, etc.).

[Anonymous]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

It also depends on what the shear is like.

It is expected to be in ideal conditions in the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

It also depends on what the shear is like.

It is expected to be in ideal conditions in the Gulf.

mike what is your thinking? think pcola is in more danger now?

[Anonymous]

Oh yea...Ill make a post or attempt a video (KEEP IN MIND I LOST MY OLD COMPUTER)

[Dean4Storms]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

It also depends on what the shear is like.

It is expected to be in ideal conditions in the Gulf.

I was going to add, shear is forecasted to be pretty much non-existant in the Gulf. Now that Katrina looks to have jogged more wsw and the fact now that she will be moving over the Everglades she may not lose all that much strength before re-emerging into the GOM. The pressure gradient now growing may help her not only sustain but become a larger storm as well. A Cat. 3 or 4 is not out of the question especially if she tacks a little further to the west and heads into the western panhandle or points west.

God I'm tired of boarding up windows, gas lines, decisions to evacuate and watching our coastline disappear.


Folks I'm not pulling your chain, a Cat 2 hurricane from Destin westward to P'Cola will have the effect surge wise of a Cat. 4 prior to Ivan and Dennis would have had. There are NO dunes and NO beach left. Roads and homes, Condo's lie moslty within 15 yds of the waters edge in most cases and there is still alot of tarped roofs, materials and debris laying around. This could be CATASTROPHIC if this materilaizes here along the western panhandle as some of these models are now indicating.

[hicksta]

Depends on Katrina's state exiting Fl, how fast/slow she moves over the Gulf and when she makes the turn North.

I wouldnt put your money on the N turn yet..

[dwg71]

Depends on Katrina's state exiting Fl, how fast/slow she moves over the Gulf and when she makes the turn North.

I wouldnt put your money on the N turn yet..

Are you expecting it to head straight west into south Texas?

[hicksta]

No. Not at all. Im just saying reading the discussions they arent very firm on this turn.

[Rainband]

No. Not at all. Im just saying reading the discussions they arent very firm on this turn.

actually it's not a question of if. It's when

[LAwxrgal]

No. Not at all. Im just saying reading the discussions they arent very firm on this turn.

actually it's not a question of if. It's when

And when is the key to Katrina's endgame.

[mvtrucking]

Dumb question from a rookie here. This talk of it possibly tracking across the Florida glades, can that help sustain a storm at all? ( hot swamps) Maybe not sustain, but keeping it from being completely disorganized?
Don't flame me too bad you all.