Are the models showing a more west track now?

[LilNoles2005]

if they keep shifting the track to the west I'm gonna pack up and head to Gautier to possibly see Katrina up close and personal.

Who do you mean by "they"?

If you mean the National Hurricane Center, well... they've only shifted the track west about 15 (just guessing here) miles west of where it was at 11:00 a.m.

[flair]

read the NHC's 5:00 p.m. discussion... sounds like they don't buy into the models that did shift westwardly.

I listened to J. Bastardi on Weatherpoint/Counterpoint and the points he brought up were quite similar to the ideas Stewart had in the 5 pm discussion. Bastardi thinks the GFDL and the other models are way too far west. The storm is only moving west (or WSW) at 6 mph in a weak steering envirionment. What is going to drive this thing westward way into the middle of the gulf? The ridge over the mid-atlantic is going to be replaced by a trough in a few days.

[Agua]

I think it is just the NHC's way of trying to save face by saying they are not conviced.

I think they are being honest. There is a lot of uncertainty. Land interaction can change a storms path too.

Yup. They can't get suckered into flopping around every time a series of model runs flops from left to right. We're talking 3-5 days out and the models will flop back and forth another half dozen times before landfall.

[skysummit]

Right...I think the GFDL, GFNI, and LBAR are way too far west right now. I'm still thinking this will be another storm for Pensacola.

[Ivanhater]

Right...I think the GFDL, GFNI, and LBAR are way too far west right now. I'm still thinking this will be another storm for Pensacola.

[3rdEyeOutFlow]

If ya want to know what I think...I think the LBAR is on crack!

[m_ru]

by they I meant the models....

[Jim Cantore]

the GFDL the UKMET and the LBAR are all pointing toward Dauphin Island Alabama now

[Jim Cantore]

[img]If ya want to know what I think...I think the LBAR is on crack! [/img]]

It useally is

24 hours ago the LBAR took Katrina into mrytle Beach SC

[Huckster]

If ya want to know what I think...I think the LBAR is on crack!

There we go. I haven't heard that one in a long while. I always laugh when I see that

[deltadog03]

hey, i had a feeling that the models would shift west....we will see if this is a trend or a glitch...

[Myersgirl]

LBAR stands for LOST BEYOND ALL RECOGNITION

[tampastorm]

The further She drifts SW across Florida. the worse it can be for us in the Tampa Bay area. This will give it more time to develop and turn N and NE.

[caneman]

This is very true. Landfall more East would seem likely. Folks ya can't jump all on a model when it has a huge shift. In as much as people like to get on the GFS. I do believe they have been most accurate.

[MortisFL]

23z GFDL is more east into the FL panhandle

[Eyes2theSkies]

LBAR stands for LOST BEYOND ALL RECOGNITION

LMAO

[robjay]

Right now it looks like the steering currents are in play to be consistent with the western models. What event is supposed to happen to change this scenario?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Rainband]

23z GFDL is more east into the FL panhandle

link

[MortisFL]

23z GFDL is more east into the FL panhandle

link

[Rainband]

Wow