Depression forming?

[krysof]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252126
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATRINA LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVERING A LARGE AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Rainband]

Next

[WindRunner]

Go 97L!

[dwg71]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252126
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATRINA LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.


SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVERING A LARGE AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Are they talking about 97L, I dont see anything too impressive out there..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Go 97L wahoo...Come on Lee!!! For the record. It will likely be a fish.

[vbhoutex]

That is what NHC is saying-that there is a good chance we will see TD13 soon. Oh joy!!!

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap! Here comes another one.

[yoda]

At least we will have a long time to watch this...

[WeatherEmperor]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252126
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATRINA LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.


SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVERING A LARGE AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Are they talking about 97L, I dont see anything too impressive out there..

thats exactly the thing. They can see it, but you cant
J/K

<RICKY>

[Hyperstorm]

The system hasn't changed in organization much from yesterday AT ALL. It has always been a fairly vigorous LLC with strong winds well removed from the center. They have surely kept it as it is because it is so far away from land and convection has been well removed from the center.

With that being said, it shouldn't surprise if they upgrade it to a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow, because that's what it has been for the past day or so...but I don't expect it to gain much more strength after the upgrade for the next couple of days due to an environment that will be characterized by strong wind shear. The system is still moving W-WNW, so it will going against the wind shear until...1)It moves much farther west in longitude...2)It begins moving NW.

Convection has come closer to the center due to it being lifted from the ITCZ, but it is still a disorganized mess. This should have been upgraded yesterday and NOT today based on satellite appearance...

[cjrciadt]

The system hasn't changed in organization much from yesterday AT ALL. It has always been a fairly vigorous LLC with strong winds well removed from the center. They have surely kept it as it is because it is so far away from land and convection has been well removed from the center.

With that being said, it shouldn't surprise if they upgrade it to a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow, because that's what it has been for the past day or so...but I don't expect it to gain much more strength after the upgrade for the next couple of days due to an environment that will be characterized by strong wind shear. The system is still moving W-WNW, so it will going against the wind shear until...1)It moves much farther west in longitude...2)It begins moving NW.

Convection has come closer to the center due to it being lifted from the ITCZ, but it is still a disorganized mess. This should have been upgraded yesterday and NOT today based on satellite appearance...

Agreed, yesterday it could have been called TD13, though if it remains intact, we could see Lee pretty soon (72hrs?)

[Astro_man92]

OH SHOOT!!!!! well we are now officially (to me) out of the lul and we are just going ot be pebled the rest of the season posibly!!! now that the lul is actually over I'm sort of wanting it ot come back because we might have another 2004 senario where we have nearly 3 hurricane comeing right after the other I don't think they are all going ot be in florida again though!! "groan"'Heavy sigh"

[Air Force Met]

Let's be honest...if this was sitting in the central GOM or off the east coast...it would have been a TD a while ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Let's be honest...if this was sitting in the central GOM or off the east coast...it would have been a TD a while ago.

I agree. In the quickscats where showing 40 to 45 knots yesterday with the system. So it would be alot like Alison.

[johngaltfla]

Next

You just have to wonder when the Tampa Bay area's number is going to come up....

[WeatherEmperor]

Let's be honest...if this was sitting in the central GOM or off the east coast...it would have been a TD a while ago.

that is true. closer to home means more attention.

<RICKY>

[jhamps10]

Let's be honest...if this was sitting in the central GOM or off the east coast...it would have been a TD a while ago.

that is true. closer to home means more attention.

<RICKY>

Completely Agree. If this was say just East of Puerto Rico, it would have been a TD on Monday...

[WindRunner]

Next

You just have to wonder when the Tampa Bay area's number is going to come up....

Of course, the entire east coast has been fairly quiet since Isabel, and no majors that I can recall in the past 5 years, at least.

[jhamps10]

Next

You just have to wonder when the Tampa Bay area's number is going to come up....

Of course, the entire east coast has been fairly quiet since Isabel, and no majors that I can recall in the past 5 years, at least.

True on that, unless you count the east coast of Florida last year with Frances & Jeanne.

[wxwatcher91]

dont say fish yet... this one has a chance to miss the weakness... the models have had 97L pulling northward for the past 3 days yet it has plugged along W or even WSW at times...