Possible Cat 4 in the Gulf???

[hicksta]

Hmmm dont know bout that rain. Just have to wait and see

[truballer#1]

gfdl shows katrina at 150mph hurricane in GOM

[dwg71]

GFDL also had landfal near Key Largo. Lets look at next run and see what it does..

[NorthGaWeather]

No. Not at all. Im just saying reading the discussions they arent very firm on this turn.

actually it's not a question of if. It's when

Well its a question along the NCNTRL Gulf. MOB mentions the s/w is hard to find this afternoon...which is suppose to weaken the ridge. But yes it will turn North, regardless if it track into FL or TX .

[Nimbus]

For Katrina to come ashore as a cat 4, the forecast trough could not be much more than a weakness that changed the ridge flow without providing much shear?

[Opal storm]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

It also depends on what the shear is like.

It is expected to be in ideal conditions in the Gulf.

I was going to add, shear is forecasted to be pretty much non-existant in the Gulf. Now that Katrina looks to have jogged more wsw and the fact now that she will be moving over the Everglades she may not lose all that much strength before re-emerging into the GOM. The pressure gradient now growing may help her not only sustain but become a larger storm as well. A Cat. 3 or 4 is not out of the question especially if she tacks a little further to the west and heads into the western panhandle or points west.

God I'm tired of boarding up windows, gas lines, decisions to evacuate and watching our coastline disappear.


Folks I'm not pulling your chain, a Cat 2 hurricane from Destin westward to P'Cola will have the effect surge wise of a Cat. 4 prior to Ivan and Dennis would have had. There are NO dunes and NO beach left. Roads and homes, Condo's lie moslty within 15 yds of the waters edge in most cases and there is still alot of tarped roofs, materials and debris laying around. This could be CATASTROPHIC if this materilaizes here along the western panhandle as some of these models are now indicating.

If that is the case,it will be hell in Pensacola this weekend becuase so far i've seen no signs of preperation.

[Acral]

Dumb question from a rookie here. This talk of it possibly tracking across the Florida glades, can that help sustain a storm at all? ( hot swamps) Maybe not sustain, but keeping it from being completely disorganized?
Don't flame me too bad you all.

She will weaken, but not as much as if she hit further north. The everglades simply do not have the "energy" that the open sea offers.

[deltadog03]

ok, so i am not crazy...i just don't know how much that ridge will weaken...its gonna go north at some point...also this thing has NOT stalled like everyone has said it was going too

[Marilyn]

If Katrina survives FL well enough to still be a T.S by the time it exits the coast and takes a slightly more westward track and stay over water a little longer,we might see a weak 3 just before the 2nd landfall.But a cat 4 looks very unlikely.

Hmm, ill have to disagree. The water in the area it would be going is 90+, which could easy support a cat 4 in that amount of time.

It also depends on what the shear is like.

It is expected to be in ideal conditions in the Gulf.

mike what is your thinking? think pcola is in more danger now?

Please don't say that not only is my son a diver out in the Gulf right now but he also lives in Pensacola and has been hit twice already within a year. Of course the company he works for will bring them in they are off the coast of TX But I sure would hate for him to have to go home to another destruction

[Jim Cantore]

I could see Katrina as a cat 3 seeing the more SSW track now which in my opinion is looking to take it a good deal further west I just cant see a big bend hit RIGHT NOW

[FloridaGirl]

Maybe God is trying to tell us something, like leave this place before something really really bad happens. Just my thoughts, sometimes they tend to be insane. Right now I am thinking earthquake, tsunami. Don't mind me, the guys in the white coats are here already. Peace

[jax]

The latter model also had it in the keys.

lol yeah. thats why they arent putting too much faith into it, however not totally ignoring it either.

<RICKY>

oooops... looks like she will be very close to the Keys in the morning....

[jax]

this just in... from the 11pm discussion....

The GFDL and SHIPS models bring Katrina
to a major hurricane...which is not out of the question. In
fact...the ECMWF model drops the pressure of Katrina in the Gulf of
Mexico to 961 mb. This is very impressive for a global model.

[iceangel]

Maybe God is trying to tell us something, like leave this place before something really really bad happens. Just my thoughts, sometimes they tend to be insane. Right now I am thinking earthquake, tsunami. Don't mind me, the guys in the white coats are here already. Peace

[wayoutfront]

deleted

[superfly]

I believe this thing will get to a strong cat 4 somewhere in the Gulf but it may weaken before landfall.