Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Rainband]

I just looked at the satalite and and it looks as if she is moving Sw?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Looks like the water wapor tells the tale. Panhandle..most likely big bend area.

[ALhurricane]

Katrina has definitely taken a left hand turn this evening... a WSW to SW motion at this time. This does two things...

1. Katrina won't be over land near as long as forecast therefore it will not weaken as much.

2. It gives the western models more credence.

It will be interesting to see what NHC does at 11pm.

[Hyperstorm]

Are you all in the right thread?

[ALhurricane]

LOL....sorry about that

[Brent]

I just looked at the satalite and and it looks as if she is moving Sw?

SHE??? 97L will be a guy if it gets named...

[Hyperstorm]

LOL....sorry about that

It's OK. I'll just re-direct the people, who just might think Katrina has degenerated into an invest, to the correct thread...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 9&start=60

[Rainband]

I just looked at the satalite and and it looks as if she is moving Sw?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Looks like the water wapor tells the tale. Panhandle..most likely big bend area.

oops

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050826 0000 050826 1200 050827 0000 050827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 45.8W 17.9N 47.2W 19.1N 48.7W 20.2N 50.1W
BAMM 17.0N 45.8W 17.7N 47.3W 18.7N 48.7W 19.6N 50.0W
A98E 17.0N 45.8W 17.1N 47.4W 17.7N 48.9W 18.7N 50.3W
LBAR 17.0N 45.8W 17.7N 47.1W 19.1N 48.8W 20.6N 50.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050828 0000 050829 0000 050830 0000 050831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 51.5W 23.3N 54.0W 25.6N 55.8W 26.9N 56.6W
BAMM 20.5N 51.4W 21.9N 53.8W 22.9N 56.0W 23.9N 58.2W
A98E 20.0N 51.8W 22.0N 54.7W 24.7N 56.9W 27.0N 56.5W
LBAR 22.9N 52.6W 27.4N 55.5W 32.3N 54.4W 35.4N 49.1W
SHIP 58KTS 74KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 58KTS 74KTS 87KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 45.8W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 44.2W DIRM12 = 261DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 42.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Models.

[wxwatcher91]

wow I know the SHIPS model has been bull for this storm for the past week really but I think it should be noted that now the 120hr forecast has risen from 75kts this morning to 93kt now...

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

10:30 PM TWO.

[krysof]

97L may not be the only one to worry about. Dr Steve Lyons mentioned two others behind and stated that any one of this could become the next TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quickscats show a large area mostly to the northeast of the LLC of 25 to 30 knot winds. With a 50 knot wind flag...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

This system has developed some convection over its LLC as of the last few hours. In looks to have made every thing needed to become a tropical cyclone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

You can clearly see that the convection is being pulled on top of the LLC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I expect a upgrade today if everything keeps up....

[wxwatcher91]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on August 25, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Katrina... located just off the southwestern coast of Florida over
the Gulf of Mexico... about 50 miles north-northeast of Key West
Florida.

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave about 950
miles east of the Leeward Islands has changed little in
organization overnight. While upper-level winds are currently only
marginally favorable for development... they are expected to become
more favorable during the next day or so. A tropical depression
could form today or on Saturday as the system moves toward the
west-northwest.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms are covering a large area
extending from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Hispaniola and the adjacent Atlantic. There are no signs of
tropical cyclone formation.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
Forecaster Knabb
$$


just wondering: is there a record for the longest amount of time a wave has been forecasted to develop but hasnt...?

[krysof]

What are the models take on it?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050826 1200 050827 0000 050827 1200 050828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 47.7W 20.6N 48.7W 22.3N 49.6W 24.2N 50.5W
BAMM 19.0N 47.7W 20.3N 49.1W 21.7N 50.4W 23.2N 51.5W
A98E 19.0N 47.7W 20.6N 49.5W 22.3N 50.6W 24.4N 51.2W
LBAR 19.0N 47.7W 20.9N 48.8W 23.1N 49.9W 25.6N 51.0W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050828 1200 050829 1200 050830 1200 050831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.1N 51.1W 30.4N 51.1W 35.1N 49.6W 38.2N 47.3W
BAMM 24.4N 52.4W 27.2N 52.9W 31.5N 50.7W 35.5N 47.3W
A98E 26.8N 51.2W 31.7N 50.1W 36.1N 47.3W 38.1N 40.5W
LBAR 27.8N 51.5W 31.0N 49.7W 31.2N 47.4W 30.9N 46.3W
SHIP 53KTS 67KTS 80KTS 86KTS
DSHP 53KTS 67KTS 80KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 47.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 46.0W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 44.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This needs to be upgraded to Lee the LLC is nearly totally under the cdo. The Cape verde distabance needs to become the M name

[cjrciadt]

This needs to be upgraded to Lee the LLC is nearly totally under the cdo. The Cape verde distabance needs to become the M name

Makes sense, TD13 would get Lee, and 90L would get Maria. The question is before Sept 1st??

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea 97L is a depression....Hands down...I see Advisorys starting at 500

[fci]

Isn't Invest 97L located somewhat near where TD 10's remnants were?

[cycloneye]

Isn't Invest 97L located somewhat near where TD 10's remnants were?

TD10 remmants were a little bit south from where 97L is now at around 48w.