GUTS CHECK - 8:30PM - HURRICANE KATRINA

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/b]

[b]Gulf of Mexico Tropical Summary - GUTS CHECK August 25, 2005, 8:30PM

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/gutc20050825.jpg">

By popular demand........ A special edition of GUTS (sounds tasty, huh?)

Hurricane Katrina made landfall late this afternoon near Miami Beach.
Since making landfall, Katrina has moved between west and west-
southwest for the last few hours, passing very near Miami, Florida.

The features to keep an eye on are:

1) The ridge currently over the ARK/LA/MS

2) The approaching trough from Minnesota to Kansas

The ridge has not moved much today, still creating a fairly strong easterly
flow over the Eastern GOM.

Right now, that trough appears to be moving more west to east (Zonal)
than digging south toward the Gulf Coast. That may change, however, I
anticipate that is not likely at this time.

The ridge is slowly moving west/westnorthwest

Right now, I suspect that Katrina will enter the GOM somewhere near
Naples, Florida in the late morning, and continue into the GOM.
She will likely be a moderate TS at that time.

Once she hits the 90+ degree waters, she should spin right back up as
conditions are rather favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.

As she approaches the Northern Gulf Coast, she will most likely be a
category 2/3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.



FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT LIFE AND DEATH DECISIONS AND PROTECTION OF PROPERTY.

[Ixolib]

Thanks, DH... It's always good to do a GUTS CHECK every now and then. The "bigger picture" definitely helps on the perspective of things...

But - based on present trend and speed - I believe Katrina will exit the mainland and emerge into the GOM well south of Naples!

[dhweather]

As mentioned by pro met Greg, the ridge appears to be stronger than
we are giving it credit for. On satellite images, it looks like it's weaker
up north of Tampa. However, the ridge is obviously still pushing
Katrina.