Katrina a MAJOR HURRICANE NEXT LANDFALL?!

[Cookiely]

I respectively think your logic is wrong about NO & major canes.

I think that it appears that way only because of statistics.

There are a lot more TS and Cat.1 storms that have had the chance to threaten NO.

Since there are a lot fewer major canes, the statistics go down for a NO hit.

Example: 100 TS's enter the GOM. Thats 100 chances for a hit.
If half of those attain cat.1 strength, then there's 50 chances for a hit. Then, say half of those turn into major canes then the chances drop to 25.

PS I'm no Don Sullivan therefore I don't pretend to know the actual stats on what percentage of storms turn major. The above example is just meant to show how stats can be misleading. Anyway I hope you see my point.

Andrew Jackson's victory in the Battle of New Orleans erected a spiritual barrier against major hurricanes landfalling in New Orleans.

You reminded me of one of my favorite songs.
In 1814 we took a little trip
along with Colonel Jackson down the mighty Mississip.
We took a little bacon and we took a little beans
And we caught the bloody British in the town of New Orleans.

CHORUS: We fired our guns and the British kept a'comin.
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago.
We fired once more and they began to runnin' on
down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

We looked down the river and we seen the British come.
And there must have been a hundred of'em beatin' on the drum.
They stepped so high and they made the bugles ring.
We stood by our cotton bales and didn't say a thing. CHORUS:

Old Hickory said we could take 'em by surprise
If we didn't fire our muskets til we looked 'em in the eyes
We held our fire til we seen their faces well.
then we opened up with squirrel guns and really gave 'em..well. CHORUS:

Yeah, they ran through the briars and they ran through the brambles
And they ran through the bushes where a rabbit couldn't go.
They ran so fast that the hounds couldn't catch 'em
on down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico. CHORUS:

We fired our cannon til the barrel melted down.
So we grabbed an alligator and we fought another round.
We filled his head with cannon balls and powdered his behind
and when we touched the powder off, the gator lost his mind. CHORUS:

Yeah, they ran through the briars and they ran through the brambles
and they ran through the bushes where a rabbit couldn't go.
they ran so fast that the hounds couldn't catch 'em
on down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.
We all should have sensed something about Katrina. She struggled and kept alive against incredible odds when she shouldn't have. All she needed was a little warm water and less shear. Boom. I can't believe that she hasn't weakened as much over land. The radar is impressive.

[CronkPSU]

I respectively think your logic is wrong about NO & major canes.

I think that it appears that way only because of statistics.

There are a lot more TS and Cat.1 storms that have had the chance to threaten NO.

Since there are a lot fewer major canes, the statistics go down for a NO hit.

Example: 100 TS's enter the GOM. Thats 100 chances for a hit.
If half of those attain cat.1 strength, then there's 50 chances for a hit. Then, say half of those turn into major canes then the chances drop to 25.

PS I'm no Don Sullivan therefore I don't pretend to know the actual stats on what percentage of storms turn major. The above example is just meant to show how stats can be misleading. Anyway I hope you see my point.

Andrew Jackson's victory in the Battle of New Orleans erected a spiritual barrier against major hurricanes landfalling in New Orleans.

your joke may go over most people's head but as a history major you made me spit lemonade all over the computer monitor

[milankovitch]

Hurricane heat content is much higher farther to the west where the 26 isotherm is much deeper. The 26 isotherm on the west coast of Florida is shallower. SST are not the only factor, I've frequently seen storms intensify over those HHC bubbles. Not to imply that the gulf can't support a major hurricane it certainly can. It's the west track that holds the most danger I believe HHC and more time.

[AnthonyC]

Katrina is currently a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph...a central pressure of 971mb...and continues to strengthen rapidly. Some computer models predict a category 4 hurricane when she makes her second landfall. I'll play on the conservative side and say a weak category 3. For some reason (examples would be Ivan and Dennis) it seems intense hurricanes always weaken right before reaching the Gulf Coast. So although it may be a strong cat. 3/weak cat. 4 in the GOM...I say it weakens to a weak cat. 3 before making landfall.

Anthony

[cjrciadt]

The water directly NW of Kat is 90-91f according to WFTV right now!!! Currently in only 88f water temps.