13 miles until water for Katrina

[krysof]

2 weeks? I can't believe it. I just came back from my trip on August 22. Was this the TD 10 that everyone was talking about. If this is that same storm, why has it given TD 12? I know TD 11 was taken by Jose but shouldn't this have been TD 10 again.

[mtm4319]

2 weeks? I can't believe it. I just came back from my trip on August 22. Was this the TD 10 that everyone was talking about. If this is that same storm, why has it given TD 12? I know TD 11 was taken by Jose but shouldn't this have been TD 10 again.

10 dissipated, then combined with another wave, and it was indeterminable as to which system "won out" before becoming a depression again.

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

[loon]

last couple of frames on the Key West radar show a major "clearing out" of the "eye" area...whats that all about?

[skysummit]

Wow...I said she'd be over water by 1a.m. CDT and I think she'll make it!

[CronkPSU]

http://weather1.herald.com/auto/miamihe ... &type=loop

[baitism]

last couple of frames on the Key West radar show a major "clearing out" of the "eye" area...whats that all about?

Dry air and land interaction.

[loon]

cool, thanks. looks like she is almost getting her first steps off shore

[krysof]

Thanks for that info.

[baitism]

Yeah, shes just about to exit. The bad news is that the western bands are rejuvenating pretty well offshore. This storm held its structure, therefore it should start intensifying right after it gets back over water....not to mention 90+ degree water.

[deltadog03]

west and SW quads have EXPLODED!!! went from greens to reds on radar

[Wnghs2007]

Basically Waterfall

http://www.usawx.com/katrinamovingoffsh ... ntraly.jpg

[sponger]

Edge of the western eye coming offshore. I want to watch it all night!



love it waiting and staying up to see her reemerge over the GOM me and a couple beers.

I thought I was the only one!

[krysof]

Katrina isn't even in the prime of her life. That very warm water in the gulf may act like a time bomb. As soon as the eye touches it, it explodes.

[PurdueWx80]

Secondary eyewall forming just north of keys up towards southern Dade county - evident in reflectivity and velocity data (2 speed maxes in green going towards Miami radar site). Could be the beginnings of some sort of eyewall replacement cycle.

[skysummit]

Has she slowed extremely, or maybe even stalled? On the Key West radar, it looks like she's hit the breaks right before the coast. Anyone else see it?

[Frank P]

not on this loop, getting really close to the GOM now... this is happening well before anyone predicted it...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_NCR_lp.shtml

[superfly]

NHC had predicted 24 hours over land. It will instead be around 8 hours.

[sponger]

looks like Havanah has some nasty squalls coming in.

[sponger]

I believe the original prediction was 36 hours. THE GFDL was solid with this storm, except for the problematic intensity estimate.

[krysof]

Good news, Katrina is below hurricane status as of the 1:00 am advisory. Who knows, maybe it will weaken further. So there's some good news here.