Hurricane Katrina

[clfenwi]

Plan of the Day indicates that the next mission will be launching in a few minutes.

[senorpepr]

Mission X is about to take off from Biloxi...

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS is a little bit further west than 12Z run... showing a landfall between Mobile and Pensacola:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005082600

note that a couple of images (72 and 108 h) are old (taken from the 12Z forecast).

[Ivanhater]

NOGAPS is a little bit further west than 12Z run... showing a landfall between Mobile and Pensacola:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005082600

note that a couple of images (72 and 108 h) are old (taken from the 12Z forecast).

[clfenwi]

I know, ivanhater, I know.

I had my two weeks Active Training for the Naval Reserves at Corry Station and stayed in the barracks at NAS Pensacola a few weeks ago, I've seen what cruelty the storms have brought to the area. I spent about nine months there for my technical training, so there is a spot in my heart for P-Cola.

[Javlin]

Is it just me, or do the Florida Keys magically appear on this NHC product on the last frame? lol.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

\


If you go throw the NHC's plots up just do not see it happening like believing the GFDL's right hook once off shore.Unless there is something with the friction of water that makes this occur.Too me the ridge is still pushing hard and will for awhile longer.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

No to quite honest I did not but they also had her going even further S.I am observing aa ridge that seems for the time being pushing hard on the system.Do you see a right hook in that WV loop happening in the next hour?

did you believe the GFDL's WSW movement last night that came true today? nearly none of us did

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL, a little bit west of the 18Z run, but not as west as the 12Z...looks like it shows landfall IVO of Panama City Beach.

WHXX04 KWBC 260523
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA 12L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.9 80.3 265./ 6.0
6 25.7 81.1 254./ 7.2
12 25.4 81.7 250./ 5.9
18 25.3 81.7 180./ 1.4
24 25.4 81.9 287./ 2.2
30 25.7 82.3 310./ 5.0
36 26.2 82.8 320./ 6.7
42 26.6 83.4 298./ 6.7
48 26.7 84.1 276./ 6.7
54 26.7 84.8 277./ 5.5
60 27.1 85.3 304./ 5.9
66 27.5 85.7 315./ 6.0
72 28.0 86.0 331./ 5.6
78 28.5 86.2 337./ 4.9
84 29.2 86.1 12./ 6.8
90 30.0 85.9 11./ 8.6
96 31.0 85.4 28./10.5
102 31.9 85.1 18./ 9.4
108 33.0 84.2 38./13.7
114 34.4 83.0 42./16.5
120 35.8 81.9 38./16.7
126 37.3 81.2 23./16.1

[clfenwi]

UKMET... initially a different path from the GFDL, but the paths in the later part of the forecast are almost identical (point of landfall is the same).

HURRICANE KATRINA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 79.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2005 26.2N 79.6W STRONG
12UTC 26.08.2005 26.1N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.08.2005 25.4N 83.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2005 25.2N 84.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2005 25.4N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2005 26.5N 85.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2005 28.6N 86.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2005 30.7N 85.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2005 33.7N 83.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2005 37.3N 80.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

[Derek Ortt]

WTNT52 KNHC 260602
TCEAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST.
THIS POSITION IS JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER KNABB

[InimanaChoogamaga]

sweet graphic

[Derecho]

New EC looks like a Mobile hit, takes a while too, probably about 84-90 hours.

[mobilebay]

From what Ive seen the 00Z models are between Panama City, and mobile alabama. With the Euro being the west outlier. Also, the NOGAPS shows a PCola landfall. However, most are pretty clusterd around FT. Walton- Panama City.

[Sanibel]

Still SW and contracting upon hitting the Gulf.

I hope this diving erractic track doesn't mean a reverse back north and right over us...

[Coredesat]

3 AM advisory shortly.

I'm gonna go to bed, so I'm probably gonna miss this advisory, but I figure Katrina will be a hurricane by the time I wake up (which will be late, I'll probably be up in time for the 11 AM advisory).

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 260629
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050826 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050826 0600 050826 1800 050827 0600 050827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.4N 81.3W 25.2N 82.6W 25.0N 83.6W 25.0N 84.7W
BAMM 25.4N 81.3W 25.5N 82.4W 25.8N 83.4W 26.3N 84.2W
A98E 25.4N 81.3W 25.1N 83.3W 25.0N 84.0W 25.0N 83.9W
LBAR 25.4N 81.3W 25.1N 83.0W 25.0N 84.7W 25.2N 86.8W
SHIP 60KTS 63KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 60KTS 63KTS 68KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050828 0600 050829 0600 050830 0600 050831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 85.8W 27.7N 87.5W 32.0N 84.1W 37.2N 75.4W
BAMM 26.9N 85.3W 29.5N 87.0W 32.7N 84.9W 35.9N 77.0W
A98E 26.1N 82.3W 26.2N 83.3W 27.6N 82.4W 31.0N 79.7W
LBAR 25.5N 88.9W 27.4N 91.9W 30.5N 91.8W 34.1N 87.7W
SHIP 80KTS 91KTS 93KTS 85KTS
DSHP 80KTS 91KTS 43KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.4N LONCUR = 81.3W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.1N LONM24 = 78.4W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 30NM

[mtm4319]

LOL @ the A98E.

[clfenwi]

Another look at the 00Z GFDL: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/GFD ... mloop.html

indicates a pressure of 948 mb before landfall and surface winds of 110 knots or so (note that the wind graphic is for 30 meters/100 feet above the surface).

[clfenwi]

WTNT32 KNHC 260700
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...CENTER OF KATRINA EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD...ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA HAS EMERGED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO... AND KATRINA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[senorpepr]

Still no word on recon...

[LilNoles2005]

I think they'll find Hurricane Katrina when they get in there...