NHC 5AM package will most likely

[mobilebay]

be adjusted slightly west to a landfall around 86 West. Most of the models have come into pretty good agreement in that area. The West Outliers are the EURO and NOGAPS. Does anyone else have an opinion on this? not one model i can find puts landfall where they currently have it.

[LilNoles2005]

be adjusted slightly west to a landfall around 86 West. Most of the models have come into pretty good agreement in that area. The West Outliers are the EURO and NOGAPS. Does anyone else have an opinion on this? not one model i can find puts landfall where they currently have it.

I expect them to move the projected landfall to around Panama City..

[mobilebay]

be adjusted slightly west to a landfall around 86 West. Most of the models have come into pretty good agreement in that area. The West Outliers are the EURO and NOGAPS. Does anyone else have an opinion on this? not one model i can find puts landfall where they currently have it.

I expect them to move the projected landfall to around Panama City..

Yea. Most models are saying between Ft. Walton and Panama City. Also the NHC rarely makes big jumps from one advisory to the next. So you are more than Likely correct.

[clfenwi]

CONU brings it in just west of Fort Walton Beach, so the NHC forecast will probably be between there and Panama City Beach (and more likely to be on the eastern side of that envelope to maintain continuity with the previous forecast).

[Derek Ortt]

500mb obs show that the ridge is about 200-300% the size depicted by the models in the initial fields

may be why the SW acceleration was not depicted by the models

[mobilebay]

500mb obs show that the ridge is about 200-300% the size depicted by the models in the initial fields

may be why the SW acceleration was not depicted by the models

Derek can you see a landfall as for west as Pensacola? Also what is the GFDN saying.