Hurricane Katrina

[Sanibel]

Here we go folks. Intensification spasms and thicker north-side banding.

Center fluctuations and eye jerks=strengthening...

[ConvergenceZone]

how soon do you think it will be Sanibel before it hits hurricane strength again? This evening? or do you think earlier then that?

[wxwatcher91]

I think Katrina could be back at hurricane strength before 11am -JMO

she's already moving out over water and she's only 4mph away from hurricane status anyway...

[LilNoles2005]

how soon do you think it will be Sanibel before it hits hurricane strength again? This evening? or do you think earlier then that?

I'm not Sanibel, but I can pretty much guarantee you earlier than this evening.

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 09:00Z on August 26, 2005



a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay from Dry Tortugas northward... along the East Coast
of Florida from Florida City northward to Deerfield Beach... and
along the Gulf Coast of Florida from south of Florida City westward
and northward to Longboat Key. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of the Florida
West Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.

Hurricane center located near 25.3n 81.5w at 26/0900z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west or 260 degrees at 4 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 987 mb
Max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
64 kt....... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 60se 20sw 0nw.
34 kt....... 75ne 75se 40sw 30nw.
12 ft seas.. 30ne 80se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 25.3n 81.5w at 26/0900z
at 26/0600z center was located near 25.4n 81.3w

forecast valid 26/1800z 25.2n 82.6w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 10sw 10nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 20nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 27/0600z 25.4n 83.8w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 10sw 10nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 20nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 27/1800z 25.9n 84.6w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 28/0600z 26.6n 85.4w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 29/0600z 28.5n 86.5w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 30/0600z 33.0n 84.5w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Outlook valid 31/0600z 39.0n 79.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.3n 81.5w

next advisory at 26/1500z

forecaster Knabb

[wxwatcher91]

hurricane before this evening

5am say hurricane now!

[mtm4319]

how soon do you think it will be Sanibel before it hits hurricane strength again? This evening? or do you think earlier then that?

I predict the 5am advisory.

[wxwatcher91]

[superfly]

how soon do you think it will be Sanibel before it hits hurricane strength again? This evening? or do you think earlier then that?

I predict the 5am advisory.

Way to predict it after it's already been out.

[mtm4319]

how soon do you think it will be Sanibel before it hits hurricane strength again? This evening? or do you think earlier then that?

I predict the 5am advisory.

Way to predict it after it's already been out.

You know I was joking, right?

[mtm4319]

Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 11

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 26, 2005

...Katrina regains hurricane status over the Gulf of Mexico...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the Florida Keys and Florida Bay from Dry Tortugas northward... along the East Coast of Florida from Florida City northward to Deerfield Beach... and along the Gulf Coast of Florida from south of Florida City westward and northward to Longboat Key. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of the Florida West Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude 25.3 north... longitude 81.5 west or about 50 miles... 85 km... north-northeast of Key West Florida.

Katrina is moving toward the west near 5 mph... 7 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours... with a slight increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph... 120 km/hr... with higher gusts. Katrina is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km... from the center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles... 140 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... can be expected along the West Coast of Florida in areas of onshore flow south of Venice... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge should continue to decrease this morning along the East Coast of Florida.

Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Isolated storm total amounts of 15 to 20 inches are possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over southern Florida and the Florida Keys.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...25.3 N... 81.5 W. Movement toward...west near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 am EDT and 9 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.


Forecaster Knabb

[mtm4319]

Code: Select all

HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005           
                                   
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
                                   
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.5 WEST
                                   
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005
                                   
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
                                   
25.4N  83.8W      48  X  X  X 48   VENICE FL         32  X  X  X 32
25.9N  84.6W      35  X  1  X 36   TAMPA FL          13  4  1  2 20
26.6N  85.4W      17  6  1  1 25   CEDAR KEY FL       4  7  4  3 18
MUHA 230N 824W     6  X  X  1  7   ST MARKS FL        X  4  6  7 17
MUAN 219N 850W     X  1  1  X  2   APALACHICOLA FL    X  6  6  6 18
MARATHON FL       99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  2  7  8 17
MIAMI FL          99  X  X  X 99   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  3 11 14
W PALM BEACH FL    X  1  1  1  3   MOBILE AL          X  X  1 11 12
FT PIERCE FL       1  1  1  2  5   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X 11 11
COCOA BEACH FL     X  2  2  3  7   BURAS LA           X  X  1 10 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  2  4  4 10   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  8  8
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  4  5 10   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  1  5  6   GULF 29N 85W       2  9  5  4 20
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  2  7  8 17
KEY WEST FL       99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  3 10 13
MARCO ISLAND FL   99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  8  8
FT MYERS FL       53  X  X  X 53   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  3  3
                                   
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT       
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN       
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON       
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT     
                                   
FORECASTER KNABB

[wxwatcher91]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 11


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 26, 2005



due to the southwestward path taken by Katrina over extreme southern
Florida...its center spent only about seven hours over land...and
much of that time over the relatively moist everglades. As a result
of this and the favorable atmospheric environment... Katrina did
not weaken all that much overnight. The center crossed the coast of
southwestern Florida at about 0530z... emerging over the warm
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. WSR-88D radar imagery from Miami and
Key West still depict an impressive cyclone... with strong
convection continuing just southeast of the center... which still
qualifies as somewhat of an eyewall. A secondary but strong curved
band also extends from just east of the center southwestward along
the entire chain of the Florida Keys... and a larger outer band
extends all the way around the southern portions of the circulation
between the Keys and Cuba to west of Dry Tortugas. While the latest
Doppler radar velocities only support 60 kt at the surface... these
values are steadily climbing... and the first Dvorak estimates over
the Gulf are a unanimous t4.0/65 kt. Therefore... Katrina is
reassigned hurricane status with intensity of 65 kt.

Radar imagery indicates that Katrina has started to move nearly due
westward... and the initial motion estimate is 260/4. This motion
is expected to continue for the next several hours to the south of
an eastward extension of the mid-level ridge centered over Texas.
The dynamical models generally agree that this ridge will weaken
and migrate westward... allowing Katrina to gradually turn
northward into a weakness in the ridging. The new suite of guidance
has shifted a little to the west... as has the official forecast...
which is a blend of the previous advisory and the latest model
consensus.

All indications are that Katrina will be a dangerous hurricane in
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next couple of days.
This seems even more likely now given its current strength emerging
again over water. As Katrina moves farther north in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico... atmospheric conditions should only become more
conducive for strengthening as a large upper level anticyclone
dominates over the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is close
to the SHIPS guidance in bringing Katrina to 90 kt by 72 hours....
but this could be conservative since the GFDL and GFDN forecast a
major hurricane. It is certainly possible that Katrina could
attain major hurricane status before making landfall somewhere on
the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0900z 25.3n 81.5w 65 kt
12hr VT 26/1800z 25.2n 82.6w 70 kt
24hr VT 27/0600z 25.4n 83.8w 75 kt
36hr VT 27/1800z 25.9n 84.6w 80 kt
48hr VT 28/0600z 26.6n 85.4w 85 kt
72hr VT 29/0600z 28.5n 86.5w 90 kt
96hr VT 30/0600z 33.0n 84.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 31/0600z 39.0n 79.0w 25 kt...inland


$$

[thunderchief]

whats going on? I assume its a dissemination failure and the plane is there.

[senorpepr]

whats going on? I assume its a dissemination failure and the plane is there.

Negative... no plane is out there. Had a plane went out there, we would have had actual figures on Katrina rather than estimates.

[ConvergenceZone]

Unbelievable that it's already a hurricane again! :

Latest discussion:

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

due to the southwestward path taken by Katrina over extreme southern
Florida...its center spent only about seven hours over land...and
much of that time over the relatively moist everglades. As a result
of this and the favorable atmospheric environment... Katrina did
not weaken all that much overnight. The center crossed the coast of
southwestern Florida at about 0530z... emerging over the warm
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. WSR-88D radar imagery from Miami and
Key West still depict an impressive cyclone... with strong
convection continuing just southeast of the center... which still
qualifies as somewhat of an eyewall. A secondary but strong curved
band also extends from just east of the center southwestward along
the entire chain of the Florida Keys... and a larger outer band
extends all the way around the southern portions of the circulation
between the Keys and Cuba to west of Dry Tortugas. While the latest
Doppler radar velocities only support 60 kt at the surface... these
values are steadily climbing... and the first Dvorak estimates over
the Gulf are a unanimous t4.0/65 kt. Therefore... Katrina is
reassigned hurricane status with intensity of 65 kt.

Radar imagery indicates that Katrina has started to move nearly due
westward... and the initial motion estimate is 260/4. This motion
is expected to continue for the next several hours to the south of
an eastward extension of the mid-level ridge centered over Texas.
The dynamical models generally agree that this ridge will weaken
and migrate westward... allowing Katrina to gradually turn
northward into a weakness in the ridging. The new suite of guidance
has shifted a little to the west... as has the official forecast...
which is a blend of the previous advisory and the latest model
consensus.

All indications are that Katrina will be a dangerous hurricane in
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next couple of days.
This seems even more likely now given its current strength emerging
again over water. As Katrina moves farther north in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico... atmospheric conditions should only become more
conducive for strengthening as a large upper level anticyclone
dominates over the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is close
to the SHIPS guidance in bringing Katrina to 90 kt by 72 hours....
but this could be conservative since the GFDL and GFDN forecast a
major hurricane. It is certainly possible that Katrina could
attain major hurricane status before making landfall somewhere on
the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0900z 25.3n 81.5w 65 kt
12hr VT 26/1800z 25.2n 82.6w 70 kt
24hr VT 27/0600z 25.4n 83.8w 75 kt
36hr VT 27/1800z 25.9n 84.6w 80 kt
48hr VT 28/0600z 26.6n 85.4w 85 kt
72hr VT 29/0600z 28.5n 86.5w 90 kt
96hr VT 30/0600z 33.0n 84.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 31/0600z 39.0n 79.0w 25 kt...inland
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

[thunderchief]

I didnt see that your graphic got updated saying they rescheduled.

is 1012A going off on time?

[wxwatcher91]

so when is the next mission? (or at least when the next mission is supposed to be)

[senorpepr]

A synoptic flight is scheduled for takeoff at 2pm EDT. The next fix flight is scheduled at 11:30pm EDT.

However, thanks to landfall and the grounded flight from last night, the schedule has to be rewrote. So I'm in the dark...

[cycloneye]

715
WTNT32 KNHC 261056
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA CHURNING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM EDT... FOLLOWED BY
THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART