Hurricane Katrina

[storms in NC]

Looks like the NW turn has occured.

Where are you getting the NW turn? According to NHC a few minutes ago(11 am advisory) it is still west:


AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Not saying she is not going west but she seem to have her own mine to want she wants to do

[StormsAhead]

URNT14 KNHC 261507
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01264 10835 13150 11106 05039
02262 20833 23141 21206 05038
03260 30831 33129 31207 05040
04258 40829 43119 41208 05037
05256 50828 53101 51208 06039
06254 60826 63067 61110 05051
07252 70824 73993 70909 02077
MF252 M0824 MF081
OBS 01 AT 14:05:00Z
OBS 07 AT 14:30:10Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 03035
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01249 10820 13017 10909 23069
02247 20818 23071 21010 22045
03245 30816 33093 30707 21041
04244 40814 43115 40808 20039
05242 50812 53131 50909 20042
MF250 M0821 MF083
OBS 01 AT 14:42:50Z
OBS 05 AT 15:01:00Z
OBS 05 SFC WND 20040
AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 09

[gatorcane]

[tailgater]

Looks like the NW turn has occured.

I'm not sure about NW, I'm seeing WNW and a good bit quicker.
Also very surprised at the low pressure with the struture of this storm, no closed eyewall.

[Brent]

This is BAD.

Cat 4 anyone???

[MyGulfParadise]

I just ran the lastest loop and it still appears to be moving just south of due west.....around 260 degrees.

[JTD]

:eek:

This is BAD.

Cat 4 anyone???

Hate to say but:

or higher....

[cjrciadt]

:eek:

This is BAD.

Cat 4 anyone???

Hate to say but:

or higher....

Throw the -removed- into high gear.

[Rainband]

wobbles

[wxcrazytwo]

this is not good. I believe the stronger it gets the more northern turn it will take...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261505
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 14 KNHC
1442 2456N 08203W 03100 5016 222 064 118 112 064 03131 0000000000
1442. 2455N 08202W 03054 5005 229 064 096 096 069 03096 0000000100
1443 2454N 08200W 03052 0007 228 069 088 088 070 03105 0000000100
1443. 2453N 08158W 03042 0021 222 067 088 088 068 03111 0000000000
1444 2452N 08156W 03051 0030 220 064 074 074 067 03128 0000000100
1444. 2451N 08155W 03051 0038 213 053 084 084 056 03136 0000000000
1445 2450N 08154W 03047 0042 216 054 092 092 055 03136 0000000000
1445. 2448N 08152W 03049 0048 216 052 086 086 053 03143 0000000000
1446 2447N 08151W 03047 0052 215 051 086 086 053 03146 0000000000
1446. 2446N 08150W 03048 0055 216 050 084 084 051 03150 0000000000
1447 2445N 08149W 03050 0058 217 047 086 086 048 03155 0000000000
1447. 2444N 08148W 03047 0061 222 046 096 096 047 03155 0000000000
1448 2442N 08146W 03045 0062 223 040 088 088 041 03154 0000000000
1448. 2441N 08145W 03049 0067 227 041 088 088 042 03162 0000000000
1449 2440N 08144W 03055 0063 234 042 070 070 045 03165 0000000100
1449. 2438N 08142W 03038 0065 236 044 068 068 045 03150 0000000100
1450 2437N 08141W 03050 0066 228 047 072 072 053 03163 0000000100
1450. 2436N 08140W 03051 0064 231 044 066 066 045 03162 0000000100
1451 2434N 08139W 03048 0074 226 042 070 070 043 03169 0000000100
1451. 2433N 08137W 03046 0081 219 045 074 074 045 03174 0000000100

[Stormcenter]

It looks like she is moving slightly south of due west to me but I'm NOT an expert at these things. The KEY thing to note is that she sure looks like she has picked up forward speed again. Why?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[WindRunner]

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1530Z FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1530Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[WindRunner]

Nice, 85kts with gusts to 80kts, and peak at 110ktd.

[Scorpion]

What I feared last night is taking place. Rapid intensification. I think Cat 3 by 5 PM at this rate.

[gatorcane]

where is the discussion?

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261508
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 15 KNHC
1452 2432N 08136W 03048 0083 209 040 072 072 041 03178 0000000100
1452. 2431N 08135W 03050 0086 208 034 068 068 035 03183 0000000100
1453 2430N 08134W 03044 0091 201 040 064 064 040 03182 0000000100
1453. 2428N 08132W 03052 0094 199 036 088 088 039 03194 0000000000
1454 2427N 08131W 03046 0096 205 033 090 090 036 03188 0000000000
1454. 2426N 08130W 03052 0098 207 030 092 092 031 03196 0000000000
1455 2425N 08129W 03046 0099 216 034 088 088 036 03192 0000000000
1455. 2423N 08127W 03048 0101 217 036 098 098 038 03196 0000000000
1456 2422N 08126W 03048 0104 213 039 084 084 039 03199 0000000000
1456. 2421N 08125W 03047 0105 203 039 082 082 040 03199 0000000000
1457 2420N 08124W 03050 0106 203 043 078 078 046 03203 0000000000
1457. 2419N 08123W 03046 0108 198 049 080 080 050 03201 0000000000
1458 2417N 08122W 03049 0111 198 049 084 084 049 03207 0000000000
1458. 2416N 08120W 03048 0113 195 048 084 084 049 03209 0000000000
1459 2415N 08119W 03048 0114 196 046 082 082 048 03210 0000000000
1459. 2414N 08118W 03049 0116 196 042 082 082 043 03212 0000000000
1500 2413N 08117W 03047 0117 198 044 086 086 044 03211 0000000000
1500. 2412N 08116W 03049 0119 199 044 090 090 045 03215 0000000000
1501 2410N 08115W 03049 0120 201 042 084 084 043 03217 0000000000
1501. 2409N 08113W 03046 0122 200 040 092 092 042 03215 0000000000

[cjrciadt]

What I feared last night is taking place. Rapid intensification. I think Cat 3 by 5 PM at this rate.

Can we say "bombing" yet. (75 to 100 from the first 11am advisory).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. ANOTHER RECENT REPORT FROM A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY
WEST HARBOR INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 86 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING IN
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1130 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[wxcrazytwo]

OMG, PLEASE SEND IN DYN-O-MAT...