Hurricane Katrina

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261513
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 16 KNHC
1502 2408N 08112W 03049 0122 204 041 090 090 042 03219 0000000000
1502. 2407N 08111W 03048 0124 201 038 090 088 040 03220 0000000000
1503 2406N 08109W 03049 0125 201 039 092 092 040 03221 0000000000
1503. 2407N 08108W 03048 0128 201 040 092 088 040 03223 0000000000
1504 2409N 08107W 03046 0123 192 037 092 084 038 03217 0000000000
1504. 2411N 08107W 03048 0122 190 033 096 072 034 03217 0000000000
1505 2413N 08107W 03049 0121 187 033 098 068 034 03217 0000000000
1505. 2415N 08107W 03048 0120 185 032 100 064 032 03215 0000000000
1506 2417N 08107W 03047 0119 187 033 100 060 035 03213 0000000000
1506. 2420N 08107W 03048 0118 186 033 100 062 033 03213 0000000000
1507 2422N 08107W 03049 0117 186 035 100 062 036 03213 0000000000
1507. 2424N 08107W 03048 0116 186 036 102 066 037 03210 0000000000
1508 2426N 08107W 03048 0115 184 034 100 070 034 03210 0000000000
1508. 2428N 08107W 03048 0114 183 035 100 074 036 03209 0000000000
1509 2430N 08107W 03048 0114 184 036 100 076 036 03209 0000000000
1509. 2432N 08107W 03048 0113 184 037 100 080 038 03209 0000000000
1510 2434N 08107W 03049 0112 181 038 100 078 038 03208 0000000000
1510. 2436N 08107W 03048 0112 185 036 104 088 037 03207 0000000000
1511 2438N 08107W 03048 0110 184 038 100 084 039 03204 0000000000
1511. 2441N 08107W 03049 0108 182 040 100 076 042 03204 0000000000

[gatorcane]

I don't see a W movement, it STILL appears to be wobbling SSW. When it this going to stop?

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261522
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 17 KNHC
1512 2443N 08107W 03047 0104 181 043 096 086 044 03197 0000000000
1512. 2445N 08107W 03048 0105 177 042 096 078 043 03200 0000000000
1513 2447N 08107W 03048 0104 177 043 102 076 043 03199 0000000000
1513. 2449N 08107W 03048 0103 174 043 106 074 043 03198 0000000000
1514 2451N 08107W 03049 0103 172 044 106 070 044 03198 0000000000
1514. 2453N 08107W 03046 0103 164 040 108 072 042 03196 0000000000
1515 2455N 08107W 03049 0103 162 038 110 074 038 03199 0000000000
1515. 2458N 08107W 03048 0103 161 036 110 074 037 03198 0000000000
1516 2500N 08107W 03048 0103 160 036 114 072 036 03199 0000000000
1516. 2502N 08107W 03049 0104 164 038 120 070 039 03200 0000000000
1517 2504N 08107W 03048 0103 164 038 116 076 038 03198 0000000000
1517. 2506N 08108W 03050 0103 163 039 110 082 040 03200 0000000000
1518 2508N 08109W 03046 0101 160 038 110 082 038 03194 0000000000
1518. 2510N 08110W 03049 0100 160 040 110 084 041 03196 0000000000
1519 2512N 08111W 03048 0099 161 041 110 078 042 03194 0000000000
1519. 2514N 08112W 03047 0099 160 043 108 084 043 03194 0000000000
1520 2515N 08113W 03046 0100 158 044 106 086 045 03193 0000000000
1520. 2518N 08113W 03051 0100 161 046 104 090 046 03197 0000000000
1521 2520N 08113W 03048 0100 159 046 104 090 046 03196 0000000000
1521. 2522N 08112W 03047 0102 156 043 106 088 044 03195 0000000000

[Scorpion]

Changed my mind... Cat 3 by 2 PM.

[Stormcenter]

this is not good. I believe the stronger it gets the more northern turn it will take...

Why do you think that would make it more likely to turn northward?

[Scorpion]

Cat 3??

[gatorcane]

maybe the trough will miss it all together?

[dcuevas]

okay you have my attention..... Whats your thoughts on NE?

[Brent]

[wxcrazytwo]

this is not good. I believe the stronger it gets the more northern turn it will take...

Why do you think that would make it more likely to turn northward?

I was told stronger hurricanes take a more poleward movement. If I am wrong, then please forgive me, but that is what I was told...

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83
KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.

GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE
SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE
VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

[sweetpea]

This isn't good at all. Scary Storm.

[wxcrazytwo]

No it can't be..

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 10
Time: 15:29Z
Position: 25.8N 81.5W
Flight altitude: 3050 meters
Flight-level wind: SE (130°) 44 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 11C/8C
Weather: Rain
700mb Height: 3107 meters

URNT11 KNHC 261533
97779 15294 60258 81500 30500 13044 11088 /3107
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 10

[Stormcenter]

100mph already is NOT good news!

[StormsAhead]

Cat 3??

Not yet, but maybe in a few hours.

[Scorpion]

I think it could possibly hit Cat 4 strength tonight, and if it continues to deepen Cat 5 by morning.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261532
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 18 KNHC
1522 2524N 08112W 03049 0102 156 045 104 088 045 03198 0000000000
1522. 2526N 08112W 03050 0101 156 045 100 090 045 03198 0000000000
1523 2528N 08113W 03046 0101 155 046 096 090 047 03194 0000000000
1523. 2530N 08114W 03049 0100 151 048 100 080 049 03196 0000000000
1524 2532N 08115W 03047 0100 150 050 100 076 050 03194 0000000000
1524. 2534N 08116W 03049 0101 150 051 102 074 052 03196 0000000000
1525 2536N 08117W 03048 0101 149 051 102 074 052 03196 0000000000
1525. 2538N 08118W 03049 0101 148 051 100 076 052 03196 0000000000
1526 2540N 08119W 03049 0101 148 053 096 080 053 03197 0000000000
1526. 2542N 08120W 03048 0099 147 053 096 074 053 03194 0000000000
1527 2544N 08121W 03047 0098 144 049 104 072 051 03192 0000000000
1527. 2546N 08122W 03049 0096 141 047 102 074 048 03192 0000000000
1528 2548N 08123W 03047 0094 136 046 102 070 047 03188 0000000000
1528. 2550N 08124W 03049 0094 137 046 102 070 047 03190 0000000000
1529 2551N 08126W 03050 0092 137 047 104 070 048 03189 0000000000
1529. 2550N 08128W 03048 0092 135 047 100 078 049 03187 0000000000
1530 2549N 08129W 03047 0098 134 045 110 074 047 03192 0000000000
1530. 2548N 08131W 03047 0099 134 049 106 074 049 03193 0000000000
1531 2547N 08132W 03048 0099 133 048 112 066 048 03193 0000000000
1531. 2545N 08133W 03049 0097 136 047 094 094 050 03192 0000000000

[tailgater]

I know this is the Recon thread but if you look at what it's doing on the radar I'd say it's going to continue to bomb as thr struture of the eyewall gets better defined.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kbyx.shtml

[Cape Verde]

She's up to a Cat 2 storm now and still strengthening.