Could The Trough Miss Katrina?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Could The Trough Miss Katrina?

#1 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:36 am

Katrina still appears to be wobbling SW....if she gets far enough that trough may bypass her to the north...thoughts welcome.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:37 am

it could...don't know
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dcuevas
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 101
Age: 57
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:04 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

#3 Postby dcuevas » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:38 am

boca_Chris. Not to sound stupid BUT does that mean if the trough misses her she can go NE?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#4 Postby Ixolib » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:38 am

dcuevas wrote:boca_Chris. Not to sound stupid BUT does that mean if the trough misses her she can go NE?


Or is it NW??
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#5 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:38 am

no if the trof missed her it would continue west..until the ridge broke down and the flow moved
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#6 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:38 am

No, if the trough misses her, she'll continue west.
0 likes   
Top
ColdWaterConch
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:08 pm
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (formerly KW, FL)

#7 Postby ColdWaterConch » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:39 am

Some other posters on the other board seem to be leaning this way....thinking Western Gulf - Mex hit.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#8 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:39 am

boca_Chris. Not to sound stupid BUT does that mean if the trough misses her she can go NE
?

Potential scenario:

Trough bypasses her to the North
Weak steering currents are leftover in the central GOM...
she gets strong enough to build an anticyclone over herself and her
own environment..

Where she goes from there? I have no idea...could be anywhere in the GOM..
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#9 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:39 am

Going farther east is looking less and less likely every minute.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#10 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:40 am

deltadog03 wrote:no if the trof missed her it would continue west..until the ridge broke down and the flow moved


Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dcuevas
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 101
Age: 57
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:04 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

#11 Postby dcuevas » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:40 am

Thanks!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#12 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:42 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?


It's a cominbation of the approaching trough and the ridge being pushed E...allowing for the weakness....

BUT if the ridge and inverted trough over the Caribbean moves her far enough S...the trough will bypass her and she won't be able to move intot he weakness...then a ridge will build back in after the trough pushing her more W.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#13 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:42 am

dwg71 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:no if the trof missed her it would continue west..until the ridge broke down and the flow moved


Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?


the trof will create the weakness....yeah...its really up in the air right now...seriously
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#14 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:42 am

:D
Last edited by deltadog03 on Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#15 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:42 am

boca_chris wrote:
boca_Chris. Not to sound stupid BUT does that mean if the trough misses her she can go NE
?

Potential scenario:

Trough bypasses her to the North
Weak steering currents are leftover in the central GOM...
she gets strong enough to build an anticyclone over herself and her
own environment..

Where she goes from there? I have no idea...could be anywhere in the GOM..


And she could sit in the central gulf just long enough to hit 180kts and have a CDO from NO to the Yucatan . . .

(THE ABOVE IS A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO FOR KATRINA)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

#16 Postby gboudx » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:43 am

ColdWaterConch wrote:Some other posters on the other board seem to be leaning this way....thinking Western Gulf - Mex hit.....


Are any of those posters professional mets?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#17 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:44 am

gboudx wrote:
ColdWaterConch wrote:Some other posters on the other board seem to be leaning this way....thinking Western Gulf - Mex hit.....


Are any of those posters professional mets?


NO, lol.......

Me included, I just questioned the possibility of that occuring. With Katrina intensifying and Katrin well south of the NHC's projection it begs to ask the question.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
ColdWaterConch
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:08 pm
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (formerly KW, FL)

#18 Postby ColdWaterConch » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:44 am

gboudx wrote:
ColdWaterConch wrote:Some other posters on the other board seem to be leaning this way....thinking Western Gulf - Mex hit.....


Are any of those posters professional mets?


yes....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#19 Postby LAwxrgal » Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:49 am

dwg71 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:no if the trof missed her it would continue west..until the ridge broke down and the flow moved


Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?


Yes that's the forecast, and it's supposed to be a wedge between two high pressure ridges
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#20 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:05 am

Hope you are well, Chris - hopefully one of the professional meteorologists will post here (I was a meteorological technican, and when making a comparison with a Professional Meteorologist, is like comparing a Doctor to a Nurse), but, Katrina is still moving slowly west (or just slightly south of west) at least for the time being.

Still, the OCM's felt earlier today that the trough is forecast to be sharp enough to pick up the system - I don't really know for certain, but, it does seem that this outcome is more likely than a continued west motion.

Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Europa non è lontana and 283 guests